Im bowing out

[SAJ-99]

No, I said both states have economies that can drive sustainable growth. Read it again. lol.

Ok. I guess as long as the grass grows and water flows Montana's economy will have sustainable growth.

 

[BigHornRam]

Comcast broke my internet and so instead of 5% of my focus you poor SOBs are getting 30%

I feel more sorry for Mrs.wllm1313.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I feel more sorry for Mrs.wllm1313.

HT is where she sends him to keep him out from under foot.

 

[SAJ-99]

To the OP, here is the chart that matters. Measurement is houses for sale/houses sold. The grey bars are recessions. Rates just jumped again today and Fed members are talking "shock and awe" campaigns to fight inflation. Not sure how they stop inflation without causing a recession, but it is going to be interesting.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I feel more sorry for Mrs.wllm1313.

She averages like 85 hrs a week soooo lol

 

[Deleted member 28227]

To the OP, here is the chart that matters. Measurement is houses for sale/houses sold. The grey bars are recessions. Rates just jumped again today and Fed members are talking "shock and awe" campaigns to fight inflation. Not sure how they stop inflation without causing a recession, but it is going to be interesting.

View attachment 211893

So if you get lucky and keep your job you get to buy a house… but if you don’t then you lose your job and get to figure out how to make your massive mortgage payment?

Cool.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Agreed, though I refuse to believe the market is asymptotic.

There are properties like this all over the place, with no work being done to them...
2015 - 50K
2018 - 120k
2020 - 180k
2021 - 210k

Sure some inflation, but 6 years and 4x you are going to hit a ceiling and then plateau.

Locals in each area are just doing what residents of the western states keep talking about with tags: keep raising the prices until the non-residents stop paying it to come LOL.

 

[SAJ-99]

So if you get lucky and keep your job you get to buy a house… but if you don’t then you lose your job and get to figure out how to make your massive mortgage payment?

Cool.

 

[Nick87]

Not sure how they stop inflation without causing a recession, but it is going to be interesting.

To say the least.

 

[LuketheDog]

Comcast broke my internet...

See, moving east didn't improve your position in life at all, you could've had that here in CO too!

 

[DouglasR]

Slow down with all the analysis wllm and breathe a little. Sparks are starting to fly out of your head.

Wllm has experienced all of the finer things in life do you don’t have to.

 

[Hockaday2017]

I bought my 20 acres and house in June. I went through the same thing while looking. I am a firm believer in "if its meant to be, it will be"

 

[Nick87]

I've been trying to buy a suburban and might be bowing out. 6 year old rigs with 100,000 miles are at least 40k. WTF over

Saw a 2021 Polaris ranger with just a handful of miles on it asking 56k tonight. Not a typo, how is that even possible.

 

[Irishman]

IS THIS A HUNTING FORUM!!!?

Yes, but this obviously isn't a hunting thread.

 

[Cheesehead]

Purchased 1970 -> 30K
Remodel 2004 -> 400k
Sale price 2021 -> 3,125,000

Everyone underestimates compound interest. ~9.5% so a bit less than the long run S&P

 

[Cheesehead]

Looking at where the puck is going, the historic trends for real estate writ large indicate that the future won’t look like the past once you’ve adjusted to real returns.

 

[Elkmagnet]

Borrowing half a million on a house! I don't care what the interest is, you still have to pay the principle back.

Buy during higher interest and low value = good
Buy during inflated value and low interest = bad

The bank will never offer to refinance you at a lower principal amount.
The question is whats an inflated value?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Everyone underestimates compound interest. ~9.5% so a bit less than the long run S&P

Um… not apples to apples

House had the heating system from 1928 + building + floors + some fixtures etc.

What was Fords Capex in 1928, vehicles produced, revenue, etc.

 

[BigHornRam]

Buy during higher interest and low value = good
Buy during inflated value and low interest = bad

The bank will never offer to refinance you at a lower principal amount.
The question is whats an inflated value?

Or what is a worthless dollar?
29% increase in February.
Not going to end well.

Lumber prices are up 29% in February as pace of economic reopening sparks new rally in global commodities

Prices for iron, oil, soybeans, and fertilizer have also pointed higher amid cold winter weather, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Or what is a worthless dollar?
29% increase in February.
Not going to end well.

Lumber prices are up 29% in February as pace of economic reopening sparks new rally in global commodities

Prices for iron, oil, soybeans, and fertilizer have also pointed higher amid cold winter weather, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions.

markets.businessinsider.com

Looked at shorting lumber yesterday, need to do more work. Investors rush into commodities to protect against inflation and drive up the price which in turn creates more inflation. Bad cycle. It will cause the Fed to hike rates faster and crimp demand, sending prices lower.

Everything ends badly or it wouldn’t end