Im bowing out

A few thoughts on this:
It's not the value of the homes going up so much as the value of the money going down. The stimulus, QE, etc. went in large part to the elites and bankers who have pumped the money into the economy, now making money off their free money.

Some of these appraisal issues are cured by cash buyers that come in and push the comparable sales higher, making the next house appraise thanks to the new higher closed sales.

Materials and labor are ridiculous right now with the supply chain issues, further inflating building costs. The price gouging contractors will be the first ones begging for work when the market changes.

The Fed raises rates, the cost of gov't debt goes up and this thing all falls apart. So do they want to bankrupt the gov't or stick us working class stiffs with inflation? Inflation is a perfect tax scheme on the lower and middle class because no politician can get blamed for voting for it and they can pretend they're not the problem. Clean up the supply chain and production could go up, stabilizing prices. You feed people money for doing nothing and pimp UBI, all you do is have more money chasing fewer goods as less people are producing goods and services.

Who benefits from the printing press and QE? The elite who get to have their paper assets pumped up with stimulus and stock buybacks with free money then turn around and neglect investment in their companies so they don't produce more or produce more efficiently. Then the politicians scream "tax the rich" while the rich just turn around and pass that cost onto the consumer. Meanwhile others chase poor investments looking for yield since the cost of money is lower than the underlying risk.

Crony capitalism, socialism, marxism, facism, and communism will all fail at some point
 
I guess this is a bad time to announce I'm a real estate associate in COS?

Moving to CO from rural KY is like opposite worlds in the housing market. Of course there was a large rise in price, but not the $200k plus that happened in ~2 years.
Now I find myself in a weird conundrum of wanting to make money, but knowing I'll be shopping for my own home soon. I also know how it feels to be young and try to afford a house these days.
The answer for some of these problems will end up hurting others more. Sadly, it seems there is no great one-fit-all answer
 
My wife and I looked at a property this fall, 20 ac. no neighbors, optimal location. Bass fishing and whitetail hunting on site. It was very tempting. The kind of listing you are lucky to come across maybe once in 5 years. We could have borrowed to buy, close to our maximum, and would have been 30 years (payoff when I'm 68). A dream buy for sure, but I'd rather be debt-free. We passed, and we'll continue to enjoy our postage stamp lot.

My coworker had his eye on a fixer-up property in the same area that wasn't for sale, but he had a tip that the owner wanted to move on it. They initially said $120, and he whittled them down to half that and recently closed. A couple years of weekend warrior renovations and maybe a 60k investment will probably make for a 200k+ property.
 
I would do a pole barn with utilities. Park a nice Camper inside and wait it out. Or finish the back half as a apartment you could rent out later.
Those are both good ideas, but there are a number of reasons why that's not going to happen--not the least of which is that those two things are not allowed in the CCRs where our property is located.

My wife and I are not going to allow ourselves to get into a financial jackpot, and as of right now building this home and affording everyday life with a little fun money left over for modest vacations is still doable, but it won't be for long at the rate prices keep climbing. I'm just not sure I have faith that things are going to take a drastic enough downturn anytime to make waiting longer worth it.
 
I'm just not sure I have faith that things are going to take a drastic enough downturn anytime to make waiting longer worth it.
I agree.

My wife and I own a real estate brokerage with over 60 agents so I'm very familiar with real estate in our area. I've heard people say there is a looming bubble burst for a long time now and those people would tell me they were going to wait to buy until prices crashed. Those folks are still renting and are now long-since priced out of buying a home.

Even if we had a massive correction right now, prices in our area almost certainly wouldn't fall far enough to lose all the gains from the last several years anyway.

If you're in a fast-growing state, my thought is to buy what you can afford and let the cards fall where they may. If there's a quick correction, you may be underwater temporarily, but prices will recover and you'll be back on top before too long.

Where people make a mistake is when they buy speculatively, expecting a rapid rise. Or wait to buy, expecting a rapid fall.

Just stick to the basic fundamentals of finance and it'll all work out.
 
I am not in the real estate business however I live near the beach in a desirable real estate market. I am long enough in the tooth to have seen two downturns. Both slowed demand and dropped prices…albeit temporarily. That window was small, perhaps a couple of years at most. If you are playing that game you need big balls and impeccable timing.
 
I do not foresee a substantial correction in SW Idaho on the immediate horizon, unfortunately.

I completed 11 appraisals last week. About half in Boise, the other half in Meridian, Star, Emmett, Nampa and Caldwell. Among the purchases, all sold for full price or higher. None required more than 10 DOM. All buyers put substantial amounts down.

At this point, the market is globalized. Covid expedited things. Figure out how to run things remotely, or go out of business.

Many of my neighbors are in their 30’s and early 40’s. Most from CA, a couple from CO and WA (most of which far right leaning). Nearly all work remotely and do well. I did the appraisals for a few of their loans, so I know they had solid down payments.

Historically, our fringe suburbs (Emmett, New Plymouth, Payette, Weiser) were much more affordable. At this point, I’ve seen some of the largest market increases and highest demand in those lower density areas. If you’re working remote anyway, you might as well have acreage, a shop, a view and not sit in traffic. And that is what has happened to the west, and will continue to happen, IMO. I don’t see that changing unless these whacko blue states stop doing whacko blue things.

Just my take.
 
I am no real estate guru, but from my perspective, with a growing national population and a desire by many to move away from current high cost/high density areas, housing prices in desirable destinations will not have a material and lasting price "correction" within our lifetimes. In addition, the price displacement of current residents from these desirable locations will then create increased price pressure on adjoining areas. The only areas likely to have a long-term price drop are clearly failed urban areas (e.g., the next "Detroit", not LA or SanFran) and small rural towns that lack desirable geography.

As for timing - sure, some folks get lucky, but like stock markets, there is no evidence folks can successfully time real estate markets in a consistent manner. So, if you need housing buy within your means sooner than later, as prices, in general, are likely to rise over time.
 
I am no real estate guru, but from my perspective, with a growing national population and a desire by many to move away from current high cost/high density areas, housing prices in desirable destinations will not have a material and lasting price "correction" within our lifetimes. In addition, the price displacement of current residents from these desirable locations will then create increased price pressure on adjoining areas. The only areas likely to have a long-term price drop are clearly failed urban areas (e.g., the next "Detroit", not LA or SanFran) and small rural towns that lack desirable geography.

As for timing - sure, some folks get lucky, but like stock markets, there is no evidence folks can successfully time real estate markets in a consistent manner. So, if you need housing buy within your means sooner than later, as prices, in general, are likely to rise over time.
Combine that with working from home while earning "big city" income and many are answering the call of the mountains/wild/open spaces, some for the first time. I think you're more right than we'd like to admit.
 
Have a property in Rochester, MN. Eight blocks from the Mayo clinic. Thinking of selling once it's fully renovated. I hope the market holds up. Still would have to find another property for future dreams.
 
Have a property in Rochester, MN. Eight blocks from the Mayo clinic. Thinking of selling once it's fully renovated. I hope the market holds up. Still would have to find another property for future dreams.
I'd pick Rochester over Denver/Salt Lake etc any day of the week, just saying that grass is in fact a shit hole. Which is to say... dude don't go west, not worth the squeeze in my opinion.
 
It's so bad people are even moving to Wyoming.

My guess is things will somewhat correct in a few years and some of the marginal locations like WY, WV, Dakotas, where people moved to will see a exit after things like weather, locals, etc take their toll on the transplants.

Colorado and Montana will still be booming though as they have the economy to drive jobs and more sustainable growth that places like Wyoming lack. Wyoming is convinced they are going to be the big crypto, blockchain, and place to hide money from taxes in the future. I doubt that works out well for most of the state as they won't see the benefit in many cases.
 
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