Im bowing out

[ignorethefringes]

Until the tax assessor starts hiking taxes.

Now THAT is a good point. I haven't researched it in TN yet, but I know in FL it was limited to a small percentage year over year if the property isn't sold (or refinanced, maybe). But current homeowners should be ok.

But I'm genuinely worried about people buying houses with current tax assessments which are low due to long term ownership. I think a bunch of them might not realize the taxes ( and their mortgage payments) are going to skyrocket based upon the new assessment.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Or the taxpayers.

BlackRock et al. targeting all of the affordable single family housing in various cities and buying massive percentages of it, won't ever be a problem... SMH

 

[woods89]

Honestly curious (not trying to be a smart ass. I know it can be hard to tell on the internet). In your experience in the industry, what do you see happening, or needing to happen, to correct the current trends in residential construction?

We are finally dealing with the fact that young people haven't been coming into the trades at anywhere near replacement numbers. I don't see relief on the horizon, either, until soccer moms start telling their kids to become carpenters and electricians.

I'm a residential remodeling contractor, 32 years old, and I'm currently not taking any new work until I get my backlog down. There's a ton of demand, both new construction and remodeling, and nowhere near enough of us to do it.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

We are finally dealing with the fact that young people haven't been coming into the trades at anywhere near replacement numbers. I don't see relief on the horizon, either, until soccer moms start telling their kids to become carpenters and electricians.

I'm a residential remodeling contractor, 32 years old, and I'm currently not taking any new work until I get my backlog down. There's a ton of demand, both new construction and remodeling, and nowhere near enough of us to do it.

What percentage is primary residences just out of curiosity?

 

[DouglasR]

Maybe he's planning to buy a van and live down by the river.

I bought my van before things went crazy and I’m pretty sure my house on the outskirts of the silicon prairie is worth a bit more than I paid for it and if I didn’t have a 9.5lbs tortie cat to take care of it would be very tempting to sell it and the riding lawn mower and just bike all summer and ski all winter.
And of course, #bowhunt.

 

[woods89]

What percentage is primary residences just out of curiosity?

My work is 100% primary residences.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

My work is 100% primary residences.

The reason I ask is I feel like all the folks in construction I know personal pretty much only do custom second homes. Now, the folks I know live in places where that's a thing so probably not indicative of the greater housing market.

 

[Art Vandeley]

I've been trying to buy a suburban and might be bowing out. 6 year old rigs with 100,000 miles are at least 40k. WTF over

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I've been trying to buy a suburban and might be bowing out. 6 year old rigs with 100,000 miles are at least 40k. WTF over

I read the earlier comment and was like... hmmm really?

I figure my rolla is worth like $2500... maybe? I looked on cragslist... apparently I could easily get 7k for it

So wow

 

[SAJ-99]

Everyone waiving the inspection contingency right now is going to bite a good percent of these buyers in the ass in the years to come.

Or the banks that end up owning them when the owner walks.

You can waive the contingency if you have cash to make up the difference. The bank will be fine. This isn't 2006. Banks aren't lending to people that make $50k/yr for a $600k house with no downpayment then selling the loan to Wall street who then layers it into 3 different tranches of CDS and various derivatives. Today is not that.

BlackRock et al. targeting all of the affordable single family housing in various cities and buying massive percentages of it, won't ever be a problem... SMH

What is massive to you. This has been covered pretty heavily in press. I highly doubt it has much impact and you can't say firms like Blackrock are price insensitive buyers. they know what the property is worth and don't overpay.

BlackRock Is Not Ruining the U.S. Housing Market

The real villain isn’t a faceless Wall Street Goliath; it’s your neighbors and local governments stopping the construction of new units.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[TheGrayRider]

Once intetest rates start climbing (and they must to curb this inflation), the housing bubble will burst overnight. If you have a good down payment in the bank, you'll be in good shape then.

I whitetail hunt on a farmer's rural land in north central Indiana. Average farm land but not Iowa dirt. His father was paying 23% interest on the land in the 1970s. All of the grain sales went to pay interest only and they almost lost everything. And Americans worry now about 3.5%.

Please help us if we ever get back to 11 or 12% interest around here. Unbelievable. Remember the soup line pictures from the Depression era???

 

[Nick87]

But I'm genuinely worried about people buying houses with current tax assessments which are low due to long term ownership. I think a bunch of them might not realize the taxes ( and their mortgage payments) are going to skyrocket based upon the new assessment.

If there that naive and don't see it coming they had no business buying a house in the first place.

 

[smw110136]

We are finally dealing with the fact that young people haven't been coming into the trades at anywhere near replacement numbers. I don't see relief on the horizon, either, until soccer moms start telling their kids to become carpenters and electricians.

I'm a residential remodeling contractor, 32 years old, and I'm currently not taking any new work until I get my backlog down. There's a ton of demand, both new construction and remodeling, and nowhere near enough of us to do it.

Both @BigHornRam and your response make a lot of sense. Most of the guys I know that work in trades/skilled labor are busier than they want to be and can't find anyone to help them catch up or take on any new volume.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

What is massive to you.

My argument is that they say this is the market, they are targeting the red, undervalued single family homes and or just most reasonably priced.

Then within this chunk they are buying 30% of that market. So likely they make up 5% of home sales or less but they make up enough of the right kinds of sales, to totally f- the middle class first time home buyer.




Here is my beef too, a company like blackrock comes in and outcompetes first time home buyers for property. Say in the $200k range. That first time home buyer with a 30 year mortgage would be paying like $1000 a month (illustrative) but instead they can't find anything to buy and then end up renting from blackrock for $1750 a month.

So sure more housing, but more inventory doesn't do crap if you don't mandate that it can only be purchased as primary housing.

 

[woods89]

The reason I ask is I feel like all the folks in construction I know personal pretty much only do custom second homes. Now, the folks I know live in places where that's a thing so probably not indicative of the greater housing market.

I do work for a lot of retirement age people, quite a few of which have recently moved to the area from places with a much higher cost of living. Currently working on a fairly intensive remodel for a mid 30s high school history teacher and his wife who moved here from South Carolina.
This is in South central MO.

 

[Addicting]

We first started planning our new home build in August of 2020. Property is already bought and paid for. Same plan, same builder; costs have risen more than 30% between then and now. It's teetering on the point where we're questioning whether or not we go through with it, as we're now going to have to finance quite a bit more than we planned for. Sucks. Meeting with the builder tomorrow and deciding what the hell we're going to do.

I would do a pole barn with utilities. Park a nice Camper inside and wait it out. Or finish the back half as a apartment you could rent out later.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Or finish the back half as a apartment you could rent out later.

You could go the full Dirk Pitt and fill your barn with all kinds of fun toys.

 

[BigHornRam]

I would do a pole barn with utilities. Park a nice Camper inside and wait it out. Or finish the back half as a apartment you could rent out later.

I would do the same, but I don't have kids, and my wife is used to living like this to get ahead building equity WHEN it makes sense. We camped in a tent trailer one summer while building one of our houses. With material/labor costs and outright shortages, it does not make sense to build a new house right now.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I would do the same, but I don't have kids, and my wife is used to living like this to get ahead building equity WHEN it makes sense. We camped in a tent trailer one summer while building one of our houses. With material/labor costs and outright shortages, it does not make sense to build a new house right now.

Can you tell all your boomer buddies building in CO that (I told all my boomer buddies, but they just make fun of me for drinking lacroix)

All my mom's friends have decided it's the exact right time to move, and build in Delta county... and build bigger, cause you know when your in your late 60s you need all the extra space you can get.

 

[woods89]

I would do the same, but I don't have kids, and my wife is used to living like this to get ahead building equity WHEN it makes sense. We camped in a tent trailer one summer while building one of our houses. With material/labor costs and outright shortages, it does not make sense to build a new house right now.

I'm too conservative financially, but I wouldn't build either right now. Lumber is on the way up, availability of all kinds of building products is volatile, labor is messed up, etc. If starting right now I would expect cost increases to continue as the project moves along. Timelines are really hard to stick with as well, for instance, I just got some windows in that I waited 3 1/2 months on. We are also at the mercy of subcontractors to a high degree right now.
We bought an old house and 10 acres in 2018. I'm really glad we did.