Drought for the west

[El Jason]

That is some impressive Snotel data and model forecasting.

It’s very promising in that a good deal of the areas i frequent saw significant fall rains before it started snowing. This is critical for improving range conditions.

 

[hank4elk]

5 deg & clear this morning. Only had a couple dustings of snow so far this year & one hell of a wind storm,which dried it out again.
Bet I could drive all the way around in the Gila there's so little snow.

Hope next weeks forecast comes to fruition.

 

[MarvB]

Yup, one dusting here at the house so far in Central OR, already melting off. 16 degrees the low but very little moisture, lakes are hurting

 

[Rainer]

Kinda worried about a drought in the east, at least here in Ontario. I can't remember a time when its 60 degrees in December

 

[noharleyyet]

Meanwhile...

 

[hank4elk]

News this morning reported the moisture/snow is 50-60% of normal in the Gila & San Fransisco Mtns.

 

[Wallydeuce]

Our southern Utah cabin (8,500 ft.) received almost 2' earlier this week. First decent snow this year. Forecast calls for a bit more next week too. Hope so.

Here in Las Vegas, we got about a 1/4 " of rain a few days ago. Not a big surprise. We average 4" a year.

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

Yup, one dusting here at the house so far in Central OR, already melting off. 16 degrees the low but very little moisture, lakes are hurting
View attachment 205804View attachment 205805

Drive south a few minutes - there's a good amount from south end of Bend through La Pine

 

[MarvB]

Drive south a few minutes - there's a good amount from south end of Bend through La Pine

Yeah you're right, the one daughter lives down there (Knott Rd) and they always get a lot more than we do up in Prineville.

 

[Irrelevant]

They called for 1-2"... we got 12"

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

They called for 1-2"... we got 12"

Usually it's the opposite. Or something like the lowest number on the estimated range divided by 2. So 6-9" forecast = 3" if you're lucky.

 

[MarvB]

^^last few years most every time they’ve called for a few days of snow in the extended forecast they’ll change it to rain by the day of… then that doesn’t happen either. Been a dry couple of years of late

 

[BigHornRam]

Predictions have been for a colder and dryer winter around here. Today it's warmer and wetter.

 

[FairWeather]

It’s supposed to be a La Niña year, which generally brings colder & wetter conditions to the northwest. I’m hoping that’s true, as the wildfires in the summer really ruin most outdoor recreation state wide. I’ve read good snow reports from the ski areas from the last few days, so that’s promising.

 

[Irrelevant]

We got hammered on Saturday, snowing like crazy today. And we appear to be in line for even more by Christmas.

 

[Goodfish]

I have a huge concrete job starting in February. I predict a brutal late winter!

 

[Irrelevant]

It'll be interesting that in WA we may set all-time records highs and lows in the same year. One of the things I've gleaned from reading Mr. Mass over the years is that he's constantly harping that unusual high temps are not results of climate change, but are merely results of variations in weather and our limited data set for evaluating extremes (~100 yrs). It's the change in long term avgs that points to climate change. I think this cold wave is a good example. We're simply seeing an extreme weather event. Climate change does just turn off and on, it's still happening, but what we see on any day is called weather.

An Incredible Cold Wave is Being Forecast

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

 

[marksjeep]

We'll have to see how this pans out over the next couple of days.

https://www.weather.gov/media/gjt/DssPacket.pdf

 

[Southern Elk]

We'll have to see how this pans out over the next couple of days.

https://www.weather.gov/media/gjt/DssPacket.pdf

View attachment 206451

This could really help the Colorado River basin next spring. I saw where wolf creek ski area was expecting as much as 120”.

 

[marksjeep]

I didn't see numbers quite that high, but this system is looking pretty good for the 4 corners region.