RunNGunSC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 3, 2022
- Messages
- 147
Application strategy articles are starting to come out. While I’m very unluck, I like to contribute to conservation and love buying a few months of hope to keep my mind occupied.
What will the steep price increase do to tag demand in WY? The obvious impact is a large shift in applications from special to regular, significantly hurting random odds and to a lesser extent continuing to drive point creep for elk. I think low point holders were a good amount of the ones “buying better odd.” I think demand for most special elk tags will still exist but some will be unsold and fall back into the regular draw. Elk draw results will likely see a more modest impact based on high budgetless demand, as compared to deer and pronghorn. I think that success only drives us closer to privatization of wildlife or at least profiteering. I wonder how much higher NR tag numbers will offset the impact, especially for the general tag. WY will increase general NR tags and several units have added/split hunts to increase tags (added type 9 or type 2). Adding the type 9 tags lowers the value of a quality type 1 tag, IMO.
However, I can’t see a ton of deer and pronghorn tags going for such a premium price. Maybe the top hunts warrant that price, but will demand for non-glory quality hunts exceed supply in the special draw? It will be interesting to see where draw odds shake out after a couple of years. I think the results in year one may be counterintuitive, similar to what seemed like increased demand for NM muzzleloader tags after increased restrictions. I think point creep for deer and pronghorn over the next few years will be significant; especially when combining the change with continuation of tag cuts from this past winter.
The application strategy game is part of the fun. What is your hypothesis? How material will the impact on draw odds be for DEA? Will the rich now be able to buy annual quality hunts or will the odds in the special simply be 2-4X better? Can’t wait for Randy’s application strategy video.
What will the steep price increase do to tag demand in WY? The obvious impact is a large shift in applications from special to regular, significantly hurting random odds and to a lesser extent continuing to drive point creep for elk. I think low point holders were a good amount of the ones “buying better odd.” I think demand for most special elk tags will still exist but some will be unsold and fall back into the regular draw. Elk draw results will likely see a more modest impact based on high budgetless demand, as compared to deer and pronghorn. I think that success only drives us closer to privatization of wildlife or at least profiteering. I wonder how much higher NR tag numbers will offset the impact, especially for the general tag. WY will increase general NR tags and several units have added/split hunts to increase tags (added type 9 or type 2). Adding the type 9 tags lowers the value of a quality type 1 tag, IMO.
However, I can’t see a ton of deer and pronghorn tags going for such a premium price. Maybe the top hunts warrant that price, but will demand for non-glory quality hunts exceed supply in the special draw? It will be interesting to see where draw odds shake out after a couple of years. I think the results in year one may be counterintuitive, similar to what seemed like increased demand for NM muzzleloader tags after increased restrictions. I think point creep for deer and pronghorn over the next few years will be significant; especially when combining the change with continuation of tag cuts from this past winter.
The application strategy game is part of the fun. What is your hypothesis? How material will the impact on draw odds be for DEA? Will the rich now be able to buy annual quality hunts or will the odds in the special simply be 2-4X better? Can’t wait for Randy’s application strategy video.
