COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

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I guess Jon Miller and his wife tested positive. What a bum deal.

 

[LopeHunter]

Nice graph...

Montana is big state with a low population, low population density, and very few "big" cities.

A good portion of Montana residents have been "social distancing" their entire lives.

Snapshot of one state doesn't mean much to me, in particular when put into context.

Did UPS stop delivering? FedEx? USPS? Freight companies? Did warehouse workers stop handling what you buy? Those supply chain persons touch hundreds of boxes a day. They exhale which can spread the virus even if never cough or sneeze lor lick their fingers before sorting the mail.

Did Montana residents stop traveling to and fro to the big cities and neighboring states or even returning from overseas trips such as the trapped study abroad students now making it home? Only takes one contact to infect. And then that person can infect another. Then, you touch the gas pump handle or the doorknob at the hardware store or handle the lettuce someone sneezed near earlier in the day. Then you are at risk in similar ways as if you lived in NYC. Only takes one exposure. The person using the subway may have dozens of exposure but only takes one exposure to put you at risk.

The rural areas will flatten the curve since exposures are less frequent when you rarely go into town or get items delivered to your mail or residence but until you survive sickness or get a vaccine then there is no window where is then safe to become exposed whether that exposure would take place is week or perhaps even three winters from now.

I would be concerned about being rural since the treatment infrastructure is concentrated in big cities. Time will tell but a lot of risk for all of us no matter if live near skyscrapers of at the end of a forest road. Stay safe.

 

[Sytes]

For MT folk:

65 COVID-19 cases now confirmed in Montana

www.kbzk.com

 

[EYJONAS!]

I'm still not convinced this showed up only on January 7th in this country.

 

[406dn]

For MT folk:

65 COVID-19 cases now confirmed in Montana

www.kbzk.com

While visiting with my daughter today, I asked about a friend who had been exposed by a confirmed cases in Billings. Her friend has self quarantined since then and has symptoms. He has not been tested and surely is not included in the numbers. So far his case seems fairly mild.

I suspect that there are many other cases like this one out there.

 

[Nameless Range]

'That's when all hell broke loose': Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

"We ended up getting our first positive patients -- and that's when all hell broke loose," said one New York City doctor.

www.cnn.com

 

[ImBillT]

These are the numbers I would like to see from Italy. If covid-19 has caused a spike that is considerably worse than the spike the U.K. saw in 2017, then this is gonna be bad. If it is similar, then this isn’t so bad. I still can’t find it for Italy, and by the time we see how NY plays out, it’ll be a bit late.

 

[LWC55]

This model is already proven to be wrong. He has the deaths per day peaking at about 90 deaths per day. Yesterday the deaths topped 200. There were nearly 150 the day before and are over 150 so far today. We'll blow past his projection of total deaths in the next few days. He predicts that the deaths per day are about to decline in the next day or two.

It would be wonderful if his prediction was true, but he is no where close to the final tally. Florida and Louisiana are going to see many deaths over the next ten days.

You may be right and time will tell. I have conceded that it could be off 10 fold but I bet it isn't. That would be better than what most experts predicted. I haven't seen very many "experts" willing to post their models. But they sure like to tell us how much they know. I'll keep posting the best, up to date, most reliable data I can find. You do the same bud. I think our community deserves that. God bless.

 

[ImBillT]

This far today’s US numbers are looking much better than id expected. I hope that means that some of the treatments are working. I suppose we’ll know more this time tomorrow.


Never mind

 

[Elkmagnet]

The attached graphic caught my attention earlier today. I have seen a lot of people of all types express concern over the lack of clarity and consistency of instruction to the public. I'd give credit for the graphic if I knew who made it, but couldn't find that info.

On a related topic, I just noticed the WHO is shifting their terminology away from "social distancing" to "physical distancing."


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...onavirus-you-are-not-invincible-idUSKBN21733O , near the bottom.

If you're a details geek like me and want the entire background, you can read the transcript of the press briefing where they talked about the decision here. It's on page 6, under the 00:19:31 heading. It appears people on Twitter are adopting the term. https://twitter.com/search?q=#physicaldistancing

I would like to get groceries once a week like we normally do but I am not allowed more than two gallons of milk/bread/eggs ect. We are currently going to the store every other day to try to keep up.
I haven't been to the store this much in my life

 

[LWC55]

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

I encourage everyone to go follow Dr. Frank's models and go poke holes in all his data. He actually encourages that too. If he is right it is great news for the people of our nation and around the world. Although Spain saw a huge spike that wasn't anticipated in the modeling. Most other areas are modeling quite well.

If he is wrong everyone can come back and dog pile me in a couple weeks and I'm sure that will bring great joy to some too. Win - win

 

[ImBillT]

'That's when all hell broke loose': Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

"We ended up getting our first positive patients -- and that's when all hell broke loose," said one New York City doctor.

www.cnn.com

That does not paint a pretty picture.

 

[schmalts]

Well my brothers girlfriend is in critical condition right now and has lost the pregnancy. I have been diagnosed positive for COVID-19 after a couple colleagues came back to the office after a trip to Florida. They too have tested positive. I've also lost my job for trying to force them into a 14 day quarantine.

I guess I have time to catch up on some Netflix and pick out a new Sitka outfit for the fall.

Please keep us posted on your outcome. How are you feeling? symptoms? What is your age?

 

[dcopas78]

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

I encourage everyone to go follow Dr. Frank's models and go poke holes in all his data. He actually encourages that too. If he is right it is great news for the people of our nation and around the world. Although Spain saw a huge spike that wasn't anticipated in the modeling. Most other areas are modeling quite well.

If he is wrong everyone can come back and dog pile me in a couple weeks and I'm sure that will bring great joy to some too. Win - win

I've heard of him and saw some of his work before, he lives in Cincinnati. He's been doing this stuff for years and they don't come any better. He's the guy that teaches geniuses. He'll admit he isn't always right but I'd hold his word in a higher regard than most of these yahoos spouting out numbers in the press.

 

[ImBillT]

Still flabbergasted at the people who tested positive and won’t remain in self-quarantine.

 

[BuzzH]

Still flabbergasted at the people who tested positive and won’t remain in self-quarantine.

Really?

I'm not at all, its all about them.

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

The Rise and Fall of COVID-19

See a statistical model of the future of the COVID-19 pandemic so that you can make informed decisions!

dispensationalpublishing.com

Buzz he has models on almost every state in the attached link Most countries too. Not Wyoming yet...unfortunately. But it is coming.
Feel free to post other expert models. I truly would like to see more but they are not easy to find.

Google the CHIME Model. It is what a lot of agencies/hospitals are using to predict, and understand when infection rates will exceed hospital capacity.

 

[ImBillT]

Really?

I'm not at all, its all about them.

I think flabbergasted was the wrong word. I’m not actually that surprised. That’s why testing wouldn’t help much. People would just go back into the public.

The word I should have used was “disgusted”. I’m becoming more and more disgusted at people with a positive test result that won’t stay in quarantine.

 

[ImBillT]

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

I encourage everyone to go follow Dr. Frank's models and go poke holes in all his data. He actually encourages that too. If he is right it is great news for the people of our nation and around the world. Although Spain saw a huge spike that wasn't anticipated in the modeling. Most other areas are modeling quite well.

If he is wrong everyone can come back and dog pile me in a couple weeks and I'm sure that will bring great joy to some too. Win - win

I hope he’s right. I’m not convinced that any of the data he’s using is good. Our testing criteria and availability has changed, and still isn’t consistent across the country, so I don’t know how you can use data collected under two different circumstances in the same equation unless you account for it somehow. Perhaps he did. I also don’t think deaths counts are going to give us good short term information due to the variability of time from infection to time of death. We shall see. I hope he’s right because his numbers look like sweet relief compared to what we’ve been told to expect.

 

[LWC55]

I hope he’s right. I’m not convinced that any of the data he’s using is good. Our testing criteria and availability has changed, and still isn’t consistent across the country, so I don’t know how you can use data collected under two different circumstances in the same equation unless you account for it somehow. Perhaps he did. I also don’t think deaths counts are going to give us good short term information due to the variability of time from infection to time of death. We shall see. I hope he’s right because his numbers look like sweet relief compared to what we’ve been told to expect.

He's using the most recent data out there and that is all anyone can do. He puts the data into the best modeling computers there are. The models use past data and predict the most likely future outcome. It is not a certainty and the models change every day. But the further you are along the model (each day) the more accurate they become. Lots of complicated math in there that neither one of us would likely understand. Follow his models from the FB link. There is tons of discussion and he answers as many questions as possible. He's a teacher and tries to use a language that normal people can understand.