COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[Nameless Range]

Germany and the US ramped up testing at almost the exact same time. On March 10 Germany had 1565 positive cases. March 24 Germany had 32,991

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

On March 10 the US had 994 cases. March 24 US had 54,856

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I'm not saying Germany isn't doing a better job because I think they probably are. But to act like Germany was miles ahead of this thing and the US was miles behind is simply FALSE.

Germany's population is 1/4 that of the U.S.'s.

The first official Covid case in the US was January 7, exactly 20 days ( a lifetime for this event) before Germany's first. On March 10th, Germany, a country 25% the size of ours in terms of population, had about 50% more positive cases. And they Covid didn't arrive to their country until 3 weeks after us.

Yes, they were well ahead of us. I'm gonna trust the experts when they say "The biggest reason for the difference..., is Germany’s work in the early days of its outbreak to track, test and contain infection cluster "

 

[JLS]

Germany's population is 1/4 that of the U.S.'s.

The first official Covid case in the US was January 7, exactly 20 days ( a lifetime for this event) before Germany's first. On March 10th, Germany, a country 25% the size of ours in terms of population, had about 50% more positive cases. And they Covid didn't arrive to their country until 3 weeks after us.

Yes, they were well ahead of us. I don't know why you're hung up on this, but I'm gonna trust the experts when they say "The biggest reason for the difference..., is Germany’s work in the early days of its outbreak to track, test and contain infection cluster "

#KeepAmericaGreat

 

[LWC55]

Germany's population is 1/4 that of the U.S.'s.

The first official Covid case in the US was January 7, exactly 20 days ( a lifetime for this event) before Germany's first. On March 10th, Germany, a country 25% the size of ours in terms of population, had about 50% more positive cases. And they Covid didn't arrive to their country until 3 weeks after us.

Yes, they were well ahead of us. I'm gonna trust the experts when they say "The biggest reason for the difference..., is Germany’s work in the early days of its outbreak to track, test and contain infection cluster "

I'm not hung up on this. Germany is doing a better job. I'm just showing some perspective. Both countries had confirmed cases in January. Neither started widespread testing until sometime around March 10.

 

[3855WIN]

We will revisit this in 60 days. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit it.

10,000 deaths worldwide. The hysteria is for hospitals that’ll be overrun. We’ll probably get to 100,000 worldwide deaths eventually.

 

[Randi]

I hope this is the right place to post this

If you have older people in your family with DNR's on file, a DNR does not mean, dont treat the patient at all. I dont have any charts or anything, but I am aware that in the past that some in the health industry have mistaken a DNR as a "dont treat" order. I would think that this might be possible today if someone 80 and older came to the hospital with the virus.

Depression/Mental Health. 401';s are down, isolated, no income, maybe some are ill in the family or old and you can not see them, --loss of "control" at least to some degree.

Do your best to stay active both physically and mentality. change what you can, accept what you can not change, and have the wisdom to know the difference. Dont be your own worst enemy by driving yourself crazy because you are not in a position to change something. MANY GOOD STRONG MEN on this forum. Men who are accustomed to taking control of a situation and fixing it. Tough days for sure but they will pass and we will be back to discussing weather or not an Elk can be killed with a 270 (-:.

What have you always wanted to do but never had the time. Learn to play a musical instrument, art, sculpture, buy an old 64 1/2 mustang and restore it. (-;

we have three seniors in our immediate family. Thank you, a good heads up.

 

[npaden]

Testing early allows you to trace and contain clusters. Other countries have done it with success, and Germany did it better than the US. Countries are not monoliths, these waves happen by metro area, and so knowing the hotspots and a better representation of infection is important for planning. Looking at raw numbers for a country as a whole may not be a good signal of the situation in different cities in that country. It also allows you to take the situation seriously early on. Something we did not do at all. There's a political aspect to that - maybe some tweets that haven't aged well - but I will stay out of that realm.

South Korea is a perfect example of this and Japan did a really good job as well. If you look at their curves they are more like a flat line than a curve. Pretty impressive.

South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[LWC55]

Dear Politician with a Graph, Please Read This – Dispensational Publishing

Randy White, CEO On March 23 DPH began carrying the statistical information of Dr. Douglas Frank. You can see that information here. How important are scientific models for pandemics like the one we currently experience? Frankly, these models are virtually the only thing we have to work from. We...

dispensationalpublishing.com

Article discussing Dr. Frank's models and the response we've seen. Not saying this source is completely unbiased. But neither are most of the others posted. Worth 3 minutes if you have the time.

An excerpt:

DPH is relying on the scientific analysis of Douglas G. Frank. When asked about a particular press conference in which a politician stated that the peak of COVID-19 would be (for their area) on May 1. Frank’s response, “where are their daily predictions, confirming that their understanding is correct? If they can’t even predict a day or two, why would we trust them a week or a month?”

That, my friend, is what every one of us should insist on. When our politicians bring forth charts, let us shout from the mountaintop, “Show me the numbers!!” Charts are based on assumptions and have either had enough time to verify some degree of accuracy or they are made up hype and should be summarily rejected.

Our DPH daily blog updates will be carrying the updated results, with pertinent commentary, from Dr. Frank. If we find his model to be falsified by information, we will reject the models and inform the public. THAT IS WHAT SCIENTISTS DO. (And, what Dr. Frank would want us to do, frankly!)

 

[Jmnhunter]

(CNN)A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work.

Some encouragement https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-death-peak-three-weeks-epidemiologist/index.html

 

[88man]

Soon enough it won't matter who is right. Only who is left.

No the narcissists on this board wanna be right foremost

 

[LWC55]

Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-advised Lockdowns

How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but inaccurate data to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates.

thefederalist.com

THIS SOURCE MAY BE BIASED. The numbers are interesting and pertinent to my area N TX and many of yours. Check out the source and models many are using to make these very costly policy decisions.

 

[Irrelevant]

The federalist, yes, always my go-to source for unbiased information.

 

[3855WIN]

No the narcissists on this board wanna be right foremost

The virus might get some of us, but they’ll be plenty of us left.

 

[Trial153]

"How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates."


sounds like a scientific data driven article to me.....

 

[----]

This thread has far outlived it's usefulness.

 

[JLS]

"How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates."


sounds like a scientific data driven article to me.....

They did such a good job it went worldwide.

 

[Nameless Range]

This thread has far outlived it's usefulness.

I'm here for the bonfire.

Massive Bonfire Explosion Fail! GIF | Gfycat

Watch and share Destruction GIFs and Explosion GIFs on Gfycat

gfycat.com

 

[LWC55]

Frank's first look at Montana

 

[LWC55]

Frank's first look at Colorado.
He noted on Colorado:
COvid-19 “Quick Look at Colorado”

Once we have data for halfway up the peak, we can usually make a very close prediction. It’s been challenging in lots of states however, because the deaths numbers are so low (noisy) and right in the middle of the most important part for predictions, they changed the testing protocols, messing up the cases data. Maybe the right public health policy, but certainly bad for the scientific method.

 

[BuzzH]

View attachment 132743

Frank's first look at Montana

Nice graph...

Montana is big state with a low population, low population density, and very few "big" cities.

A good portion of Montana residents have been "social distancing" their entire lives.

Snapshot of one state doesn't mean much to me, in particular when put into context.

 

[LWC55]

Some encouragement https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-death-peak-three-weeks-epidemiologist/index.html
(CNN)A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work.

It would be nice if more scientists would post their data so that we can see what it is really going on. I'll post Dr. Frank's model and we can see how close he gets. He updates daily on FB if any would like to see how things are progressing.