COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.
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Rainer
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This is not going to peak in a few days. Are you truly that naive? 30 States arent doing anything. America still isn't taking this seriously
We should know pretty soon if Dr. Frank knows his stuff or if he's full of it. I have faith in his work. I'm truly sorry how this has affected your family and hope they are doing better. Prayers
406dn
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I really wish you could realize this guy is a mathematician that has his head up his backside.
I will try to point you in a better direction with the site I have been watching.
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
Scroll down the site until you see the cases and the deaths. There is both a linear scale and a logarithmic scale. Click on the logarithmic scale for each.
You will be able to see a fairly straight line sloping upward from left to right. It will show you how quickly the numbers are increasing by an order of magnitude. It only took the last 8 days for deaths to go from 100 to a 1000. Look at the slope, it is not beginning to turn for deaths,, maybe slightly bending for cases, or not.
If we can agree that the deaths lag the new cases by a couple of weeks, you can assume deaths will grow logarithmically for a couple of weeks.
So here is my best guess. That by Easter Sunday there will be between 75 thousand and 125 thousand dead from the coronavirus.
Hope I'm wrong. But I'm certain I'm closer than the guy you insist on following.
I really wish you could realize this guy is a mathematician that has his head up his backside.
I will try to point you in a better direction with the site I have been watching.
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
Scroll down the site until you see the cases and the deaths. There is both a linear scale and a logarithmic scale. Click on the logarithmic scale for each.
You will be able to see a fairly straight line sloping upward from left to right. It will show you how quickly the numbers are increasing by an order of magnitude. It only took the last 8 days for deaths to go from 100 to a 1000. Look at the slope, it is not beginning to turn for deaths,, maybe slightly bending for cases, or not.
If we can agree that the deaths lag the new cases by a couple of weeks, you can assume deaths will grow logarithmically for a couple of weeks.
So here is my best guess. That by Easter Sunday there will be between 75 thousand and 125 thousand dead from the coronavirus.
Hope I'm wrong. But I'm certain I'm closer than the guy you insist on following.
World wide or in the US?
406dn
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I don't want or need your money. We're half way to his total,,,you can't think we turning a corner.
406dn
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I'm sorry, as I've said before that was in very poor taste. Feel free to delete the quote. But yes, on a bell curve the highest numbers are generally at the peak and then it falls sharply back the other way.
This thread had some usefulness for longer than I expected. Yet, always ends with a handful of folks who as Hank Williams sang, "Would rather fight than breath."
#ITSlocked
#ITSlocked
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