COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[Bigjay73]

Anyone in Co able to decipher what the Gov means by essential personnel?

 

[dcopas78]

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how your community is doing.

covidactnow.org

Pretty neat simulator

 

[ImBillT]

is this the stats your referring to?

Italian Daily Death Rate Up 20% Because of Coronavirus, Lombardy Up About 80%

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day;

reason.com

is this the stats your referring to?

Italian Daily Death Rate Up 20% Because of Coronavirus, Lombardy Up About 80%

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day;

reason.com

No. That information is all over the place. The daily average number of deaths in Italy is roughly 1750, and that’s well known. The article claimed that “350 or so extra deaths” is a 20% increase. In fact, yesterday it was a 37% increase ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGE ....IF THEY ARE EXTRA. Both all caps statements are extremely important points that I still have not seen good data on. First of all, the 793 covid-19 deaths in Italy yesterday are only extra if the total number of deaths yesterday was 793 higher than a “normal” day. That would require 2543 total deaths to be 793 above the daily average. Why do we need to be sure they are “extra”? Unfortunately there are people who’s live are in a rather precarious situation, and will likely die of whatever illness they contract next. We can only say that covid-19 is “worse” than something else, if it’s killing a high percentage of people that would not have died from their next bout with a cold, flu, or strep. Secondly, the daily average doesn’t really matter either. The actual numbers we need are the highest few days each year for every year in a reasonable span. This would account for normal seasonal illnesses and “normal” outbreaks. We can be 100% certain that peaks days/weeks in every of the last ten years have had more than 1750 deaths. Therefore, Italy’s worst day so far is DEFINITELY LESS THAN a 37% increase in the normal daily death toll. It was also definitely under the 20% increase suggested at the time of the article you posted.

For reference, during the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, Italy suffered an all cause death rate around 270% of the norm, not 137%. Furthermore, you can guarantee that peak days were probably 300-400% the norm.

Either the worst is still coming, or this is no Spanish Flu.

 

[CiK]

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how your community is doing.

covidactnow.org

Pretty neat simulator

That is disturbing. I took a look at Indiana only.

Nothing Done = 134,000 deaths
3 Months of Social Distancing = 100,000 deaths
3 Months of Shelter In Place = 2,000 deaths
3 Months of Wuhan-style Lockdown = <1000 deaths.

This country will never go full lock down and the 3 weeks of social distancing doesn't seem to be going all too well.

 

[ImBillT]

That is disturbing. I took a look at Indiana only.

Nothing Done = 134,000 deaths
3 Months of Social Distancing = 100,000 deaths
3 Months of Shelter In Place = 2,000 deaths
3 Months of Wuhan-style Lockdown = <1000 deaths.

This country will never go full lock down and the 3 weeks of social distancing doesn't seem to be going all too well.

Those models are based on an extreme lack of evidence and facts. No one really knows right now.

 

[MTGomer]

This is very troubling to me. Unemployment at the peak of the Great Depression was 25%. We have to weigh the cost of all of these draconian measures. I'm not saying what is right or what is wrong but it has to be discussed. We can't just continue on our current path with do whatever it takes if we can save one more person. At some point the costs (death and destruction from other than corona) outweigh the benefit. We need to find that point.

Beyond just this is the loss of health insurance, ability to retire, afford education and many other quality of life things.

Somebody may have to figure out how many fatherless children, widows, billions of dollars in retirement savings, locally owned small businesses and mortgages that one life saved from the virus are worth. Not a pretty thing to think about.

The link between unemployment and suicide

The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Incorporated as a not-for-profit foundation in 1971, and...

www.weforum.org

 

[TOGIE]

Anyone in Co able to decipher what the Gov means by essential personnel?

from a definition standpoint, no i don't

but i assume it means water and sanitation districts, trash pickup, ems, hospitals, firefighters, police, 911 dispatch, electrical utilities, department of health, colorado division of homeland security and emergency, and so on

but even then, water districts which would be considered essential, have a substantial portion of employees that work in offices and can work from home. many other essential seeming services would be structured similarly

his order is putting in enforceable ink what a majority of companies have already done, which is send people home with their lap tops

i'm sure cpw officers are considered essential. being state sanctioned police officers (functionally no different from a state trooper in authority) they could prove vital for many reasons during these times beyond protecting game

 

[matt0550]

Origins of the Coronavirus

Impressive traffic skills on that ecycle...hes got more brains and balls than I do that's for sure.

 

[Nameless Range]

Interesting though maybe unrealistic article about expediting the vaccine development process.

Accelerating Availability of Vaccine Candidates for COVID-19

Without a vaccine for COVID-19, the pandemic will be here for some time. Measures such as social distancing and robust surveillance can control the spread of the disease, but there will always be a risk that a flare-up will take lives, especially those of elderly and immunocompromised...

www.mercatus.org

 

[LWC55]

That is disturbing. I took a look at Indiana only.

Nothing Done = 134,000 deaths
3 Months of Social Distancing = 100,000 deaths
3 Months of Shelter In Place = 2,000 deaths
3 Months of Wuhan-style Lockdown = <1000 deaths.

This country will never go full lock down and the 3 weeks of social distancing doesn't seem to be going all too well.

It is interesting. Would be nice to know what numbers and assumptions they are using. What mortality rate are they using, transmission rate, etc? Is this model based on the most recent data or worst case scenario data that was initially used by most of the experts?

 

[Nameless Range]

Another essay on why segregating the most vulnerable from society and letting the rest of us get back to work will not work. Some of the comments are interesting.

The Internal Contradictions of Segregating the Elderly - Marginal REVOLUTION

There are two problems, even internal contradictions, with segregating the elderly and letting others return to work. The first is fairly well known. When you run the numbers, as the British did, you find that a lot of young people would die. If we return to work too quickly it could easily...

marginalrevolution.com

 

[Scrappy]

Vast majority of posts here are fantastic! Informative, etc! There are others that dance the political line and elevate a no politics into the beginning of politics introduction.

We say it has nothing to do with the letter behind/front of x politician though, from my impression of how great this thread has routed, it's due to a respect to reserve oneself from intentionally or unintentionally dancing on the political POV.
Your view does not dictate an opposing view. If it continues, opposing views will be shared and the thread derails.

There is more than enough quality content to share and sure there is the impressions the Republican President may make into the perfect chum for the fishing however, steer clear of that bordering political type posting and stick with the valuable topics for COVID-19

Let's keep this clear of politics.

Cheers all, there's been posts that are encouraging a response whether the intent is or is not to speak of a political person's actions or lack of actions... Stick with info related and not ones impression of shutacular performance by X politician.

There has been way more posts about not posting about politics than posts about politics on this thread.

 

[LWC55]

Coronavirus: The Survival Guide - Zeihan on Geopolitics

by Melissa Taylor and Peter Zeihan Note from Peter: Dealing with health issues that impact family structure is not my strong point either topically or mentally. The bulk of this newsletter is the product of one Melissa Taylor who is both my chief researcher and a mom. If the text reads...

zeihan.com

 

[ImBillT]

View attachment 132163

Coronavirus: The Survival Guide - Zeihan on Geopolitics

by Melissa Taylor and Peter Zeihan Note from Peter: Dealing with health issues that impact family structure is not my strong point either topically or mentally. The bulk of this newsletter is the product of one Melissa Taylor who is both my chief researcher and a mom. If the text reads...

zeihan.com

Not the flu, but 1% vs .8%, and mostly in high risk categories is arguably similar.

 

[LWC55]

I agree they should have left it up. That is an example of the media censoring a dissenting opinion. People can argue his numbers and interpretations but there were links to his data and his numbers were updated daily to see how this disease is progressing. The author was putting some perspective (right or wrong) to these raw numbers that everyone is seeing every day (that are published every day with no real perspective). We get shown the deaths and numbers of confirmed cases in various countries. The author's opinion (one of) was that the per capita numbers were more important than raw data and I tend to agree. There was much more to the article and I'm sure someone will dig it up in the future and we can read it if we so choose.

Here's the article that was taken down if anybody cares to read it now. It also includes an article (tweet) that attempts to refute it. Just posting for informational purposes.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[VikingsGuy]

this is encouraging

Daniel Dae Kim credits hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus recovery

Television star Daniel Dae Kim said he feels “practically back to normal” after taking a combination of drugs that include hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malarial drug President Trump has touted, calling it his “secret weapon.”

www.washingtontimes.com

I will continue to hope HCQ is a real solution, but when 90-99% of people recover without meds, one off celebrity pronouncements mean zero - not even a hint.

 

[Northwoods Labs]

Is the social distancing thing even working? A lot of counties in northern Wisconsin asked cabin/second home owners to please stay home this weekend. Well, they didn't. All kinds of Twin Cities folks up at there places by me. Thanks a lot guys, hope you didn't bring this crap into our community

 

[Bigjay73]

Tons of kids were up on Loveland pass this weekend skiing and hanging out. Cant help but feel lockdowns are coming

 

[Marshian]

I’m curious how many of you have done “social distancing” with a first degree relative (especially parent/ grandparent). It’s a tough call when to not see you own close kin.

 

[Bigjay73]

I have decided to not visit my parents and my immunodeficient daughter.