COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[Trial153]

The people who died today were most likely confirmed positive when our number of confirmed cases was much lower. Currently, the perceived death rate from that number is likely lower than it would be if you compared it to the day they were confirmed positive.

The apparent mortality rate in the US using the numbers posted on Worldometer isn’t going to be easily interpreted for quite some time. The first problem is the lag time between testing positive and death, the second problem is who we are testing. Initially, it was very prudent only to test those who with a high probability of actually having it in order to avoid a high percentage of the positives being false(If false positives are 1% and the actual prevalence is 1% then half your positive results are false. I’m sure the test is better than that, but you get my point. Also, if even sick people are only turning up an extremely low prevalence, then all the positives may be false positives). Now that we know it’s here, and real, we can start testing more people as resources become available. Testing more people with fewer symptoms should turn up more cases without fatalities, lowering the perceived death rate. Which of those effects is going to show itself in the data first I can’t predict. The real number is a long way off.

I still think the best way to judge this is to compare Italy’s daily death toll to their normal all cause death toll at normal flu season peaks. I still haven’t found that data, but their two worst days showed covid-19 to account for about 1/3 of their average daily all cause deaths(1750 roughly). That’s unnerving, but without A) Italy’s total all cause death on those days, and B) The highest few days in each year of the last 5-10 years, it’s still quite difficult to tell, but it does look bad.

is this the stats your referring to?

Italian Daily Death Rate Up 20% Because of Coronavirus, Lombardy Up About 80%

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day;

reason.com

 

[3855WIN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240513400343388160

 

[3855WIN]

It's not about politics. It's about a complete lack of leadership during a time of national crisis. I don't GAF what letter is behind his name. Leaders can either move us forward or continue to let us flounder in our inept response and subsequent public fear of the unknown.

Hell, even continued messages relevant to our food and supply chain might even stop the hoarding of TP. People act out of panic when they are uncertain and driven by fear. Leaders step up to dispel fear and alleviate panic.

Plenty of leadership. You just want to throw a fit because things aren’t going like you want.

 

[JLS]

Plenty of leadership. You just want to throw a fit because things aren’t going like you want.

Sorry you see it as a fit. I've backed up every statement I've made with illustrative examples.

 

[rtraverdavis]

You know, it’s really a shame staysharp isn’t still here to give his take and clear all this up.

 

[jryoung]

You know, it’s really a shame staysharp isn’t still here to give his take and clear all this up.

Despite his name, he certainly wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed.

 

[Trial153]

You know, it’s really a shame staysharp isn’t still here to give his take and clear all this up.

Waiting for his current reincarnation..... if you say his name threee time while looking in a mirror he comes back with a ndw handle

 

[devon deer]

This speaks volumes and is a good illustration of why we must heed the advice and do our part (sorry it includes the word politics in the link!) scroll down for the illustration

Siouxsie Wiles & Toby Morris: How you can break the Covid-19 chain

The alert system signals the start of a new phase in NZ's battle against Covid-19.

thespinoff.co.nz

 

[Jasher]

The numbers I would like to see are, how many tests have been done, how many of the positives require hospitalization. I don't trust any of the numbers coming out of China. If you take out China the death rate compared to the recovered isn't looking good.

 

[grizzly_]

This speaks volumes and is a good illustration of why we must heed the advice and do our part (sorry it includes the word politics in the link!) scroll down for the illustration

Siouxsie Wiles & Toby Morris: How you can break the Covid-19 chain

The alert system signals the start of a new phase in NZ's battle against Covid-19.

thespinoff.co.nz

I may not get it at the barbecue, but I'll get it at some point when I have to eventually go to work or the grocery store or the gas station or a ballgame or my kids school play or the dentist or a million other things that eventually we'll all do.

I haven't seen anybody say we're going to ultimately limit infections unless we continue this quarantine and travel ban for 12-18 months (which is entirely impractical) AND an effective vaccine is discovered, produced, and released (which is not guaranteed). We're just trying to slow it down, not prevent overall infections at this point.

 

[LWC55]

Has anybody seen any recent (last couple days) expert models? There is lots more data now than a week or two ago. Yet most of the models I have seen were based on early worst case scenario numbers. I would expect every new day would be more accurate....somewhat like we see in hurricane models. Surely there are many experts that crunch these numbers up to the hour in times like these. I'm not finding a lot. Anybody have a good source?

It appears our best and brightest only do up to date models on hurricanes. Or I'm too google illiterate to find said models. At least any built on up to date data.

I guess we can look at our US epicenter, NY for our most current/up to date raw data. 114 deaths and 15,801 confirmed cases. That is .7% mortality rate based on confirmed cases. Someone smarter than me could extrapolate out the true (current) mortality rate using the probable number of positive cases.

 

[Sytes]

Vast majority of posts here are fantastic! Informative, etc! There are others that dance the political line and elevate a no politics into the beginning of politics introduction.

We say it has nothing to do with the letter behind/front of x politician though, from my impression of how great this thread has routed, it's due to a respect to reserve oneself from intentionally or unintentionally dancing on the political POV.
Your view does not dictate an opposing view. If it continues, opposing views will be shared and the thread derails.

There is more than enough quality content to share and sure there is the impressions the Republican President may make into the perfect chum for the fishing however, steer clear of that bordering political type posting and stick with the valuable topics for COVID-19

Let's keep this clear of politics.

Cheers all, there's been posts that are encouraging a response whether the intent is or is not to speak of a political person's actions or lack of actions... Stick with info related and not ones impression of shutacular performance by X politician.

 

[JLS]

guess we can look at our US epicenter, NY for our most current/up to date raw data. 114 deaths and 15,801 confirmed cases. That is .7% mortality rate based on confirmed cases. Someone smarter than me could extrapolate out the true (current) mortality rate using the probable number of positive cases.

The median time from symptoms to death is 14 days. You can't simply compare real time data and have reliable projections.

 

[406dn]

It appears our best and brightest only do up to date models on hurricanes. Or I'm too google illiterate to find said models. At least any built on up to date data.

I guess we can look at our US epicenter, NY for our most current/up to date raw data. 114 deaths and 15,801 confirmed cases. That is .7% mortality rate based on confirmed cases. Someone smarter than me could extrapolate out the true (current) mortality rate using the probable number of positive cases.

You can not make that assertion of the death rate being 0.7%. It takes time for the virus to kill, maybe 10 days, maybe 20 days. The people testing positive today are included in your denominator. They won't show up in the numerator for a while. Look at the increase in deaths per day. That is all the proof you need to know where this is going.

 

[LWC55]

You can not make that assertion of the death rate being 0.7%. It takes time for the virus to kill, maybe 10 days, maybe 20 days. The people testing positive today are included in your denominator. They won't show up in the numerator for a while. Look at the increase in deaths per day. That is all the proof you need to know where this is going.

I am just looking at the raw data. You and JLS are assuming these people getting tested positive have just recently caught the virus. I'm assuming that most caught it before we took all of these social distancing measures. So assuming they have had it at least a week or two. The denominator will likely go up faster than the numerator if we keep testing more aggressively.

 

[JLS]

U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

 

[Bigjay73]

Is any of it ever going to be a close figure to what is really going on? I dont think we'll ever have a number even close to the number that are infected. The number of deaths, will be the only solid figure we have. The number of infected could be double, triple, 10x what we will ever know, the death rate will never be anything scientific unless we test all 350,000,000 citizens

 

[LWC55]

U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

This is very troubling to me. Unemployment at the peak of the Great Depression was 25%. We have to weigh the cost of all of these draconian measures. I'm not saying what is right or what is wrong but it has to be discussed. We can't just continue on our current path with do whatever it takes if we can save one more person. At some point the costs (death and destruction from other than corona) outweigh the benefit. We need to find that point.

 

[Treeshark]

I agree LCE- it’s a very morbid and troubling thing to think about, but necessary.

 

[Brittany Chukarman]

this is encouraging

Daniel Dae Kim credits hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus recovery

Television star Daniel Dae Kim said he feels “practically back to normal” after taking a combination of drugs that include hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malarial drug President Trump has touted, calling it his “secret weapon.”

www.washingtontimes.com