COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

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Southern Elk said:
Curious if anyone has any information to help decipher some of the data seen here? Right now we are at 1.3% death rate. We all can agree that the number of cases is underestimated, possibly vastly underestimated. So the death rate is lower.

Will the number of deaths increase dramatically with time? How long does it take for someone to die from this?

If you compare our numbers to Italy, we have half the number of cases, but only 7% as many deaths. I sure would like to look optimistically at these number.View attachment 132061
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I too am optimistic of these numbers. I'll take an uneducated stab based on my observations. The disease has been around a little longer than originally thought. These people testing positive didn't likely just catch the disease in the last couple of days prior to testing. It wasn't initially contained well at all or it wouldn't be in 100's of countries and all 50 states. We are just now getting more widespread confirmed cases due to increased testing. Deaths will obviously continue to rise but I'm not expecting exponential increases. Number of confirmed cases will go up and mortality will go down. This is my hope and prediction or whatever you want to call it.

As far as Italy goes, Spain and France aren't terribly far behind in mortality rates(compared to most other countries). I think a lot of it has to do with similar age structures, cultural living conditions, climates, and smoking habits.
 
Bigjay73 said:
Ugh, and we're back to politics
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It's not about politics. It's about a complete lack of leadership during a time of national crisis. I don't GAF what letter is behind his name. Leaders can either move us forward or continue to let us flounder in our inept response and subsequent public fear of the unknown.

Hell, even continued messages relevant to our food and supply chain might even stop the hoarding of TP. People act out of panic when they are uncertain and driven by fear. Leaders step up to dispel fear and alleviate panic.
 
BigHornRam said:
Not sure if this trend has been brought up yet, it's an interesting one. Some important clues could be uncovered from this big discrepancy IMO.

More men dying from coronavirus than women, data suggests
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A current thought is that SarsCoV2 binds to Angiotensin Converting Enzyme receptors. ACE receptors are found all over the body, and in the testes so men have a higher amount.

Coupled with vascular issues, and just being at higher risk in general it is difficult to sort out just what exactly is tipping the scale the most.
 
I start 7 days/week tomorrow until there is some semblance of control and the emergency is lifted. The city is getting ready to declare an emergency in a special council meeting this afternoon due to the fact that we have cases in the neighboring county. The only people working will be me, EMS, fire and police. My operators will continue to get paid as well as the collection and water distribution guys, which is awesome that the city can do that. They will operate at a bare minimum requirement with only emergency repairs getting a crew together.
 
As she struggled to understand what was taking so long, she turned on the TV, and there was President Donald Trump holding a briefing and talking about her state leader, Gov. Jim Justice.

"I'm in the middle of all this and President Trump was giving a press conference complimenting 'big Jim' on how well he's managing the health care in West Virginia and managing the Covid process. And I was like, you have got to be kidding me," Carolyn explains.
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The West Virginia department of health says James' test was misplaced by a shipping company. They say James was tested a second time. Carolyn says he was not.
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Southern Elk said:
Curious if anyone has any information to help decipher some of the data seen here? Right now we are at 1.3% death rate. We all can agree that the number of cases is underestimated, possibly vastly underestimated. So the death rate is lower.

Will the number of deaths increase dramatically with time? How long does it take for someone to die from this?
Click to expand...

Right now every country is using there own methodology so the numbers are hard to compare. The American Hospital Association estimated roughly 96 million infections with 480k deaths here in the US before this is over. That's a 0.5% mortality rate and to put it in perspective that's 10x a bad influenza year. Initially, I thought this seemed worse case scenario but now my gut feeling is that's probably optimistic. Who knows. I can say anecdotally though that testing is extremely slow -- 5-6 day turn around here in SW Wa even for hospitalized patients -- and is only available for people with dramatic symptoms. From a testing standpoint, Washington is in a much better situation that many other states (ie. Oregon) thanks to Univ of Wa developing their own testing process when this thing was just starting out in China. At our hospital, employees are temperature screened every day when they enter the hospital but that's about it for now. Hopefully testing will be broadened sooner rather than later. I just finished a 10 day stretch and the mood is pretty somber right now. I started to type out details but for the sake of not getting myself in hot water I'll just say the situation is worsening exponentially and leave it at that.
 
Jim/Wa said:
The American Hospital Association estimated roughly 96 million infections with 480k deaths here in the US before this is over. That's a 0.5% mortality rate and to put it in perspective that's 10x a bad influenza year. Initially, I thought this seemed worse case scenario but now my gut feeling is that's probably optimistic.
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fake news. AHA didn’t estimate that at all. It was a slide from a presentation from a university associate at a AHA conference.
 
JLS said:
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I figure one of these day we will all look back and think how stupid everyone was for worrying about testing everyone instead of just worrying about fixing this.


I'm starting to think people believe that getting tested will somehow cure folks. Testing fixes nothing. If you are sick stay home, if you feel you need a doc call or videos conference with a doc. If you need to be hospitalized the doc will make arrangements. If everyone would simply follow these simple steps as well as personal hygiene then we will weather this storm.

Eventually the whole country will figure this out, until then does anyone have any spare TP?
 
Scrappy said:
I figure one of these day we will all look back and think how stupid everyone was for worrying about testing everyone instead of just worrying about fixing this.


I'm starting to think people believe that getting tested will somehow cure folks. Testing fixes nothing. If you are sick stay home, if you feel you need a doc call or videos conference with a doc. If you need to be hospitalized the doc will make arrangements. If everyone would simply follow these simple steps as well as personal hygiene then we will weather this storm.

Eventually the whole country will figure this out, until then does anyone have any spare TP?
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Maybe. What is more likely is people will look back and wonder how stupid people were they didn't understand one of the integral facets of being able to isolate and contain a disease is being able to test those they suspect have it.

In case you missed it, an excerpt from an article earlier, this is the epidemiologist who helped defeat smallpox speaking.

But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.


Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?


Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home.
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Not to mention, it further displays the gross incompetence and dishonesty that has been displayed thus far, and how it is simply being glossed over as no big deal.

Carry on.
 
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JLS said:
Maybe. What is more likely is people will look back and wonder how stupid people were they didn't understand one of the integral facets of being able to isolate and contain a disease is being able to test those they suspect have it.

Not to mention, it further displays the gross incompetence and dishonesty that has been displayed thus far, and how it is simply being glossed over as no big deal.

Carry on.
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I'm with you, the fact that we've had a lot of time to step up testing and get tests out to people...it sure as "f" seems like we're lagging way behind other countries in testing.

Doesn't make sense, and when things don't make sense, there is a reason....
 
MTGomer said:
Senator Paul has tested positive but is asymptomatic.
Considering you have to be rich, famous or a politician to get tested without having symptoms, I wonder how many cases there are.
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The last number I seen ,don’t ask for the article because I don’t remember, was somewhere between 5-7x the Confirmed number of cases
 
Has anybody seen any recent (last couple days) expert models? There is lots more data now than a week or two ago. Yet most of the models I have seen were based on early worst case scenario numbers. I would expect every new day would be more accurate....somewhat like we see in hurricane models. Surely there are many experts that crunch these numbers up to the hour in times like these. I'm not finding a lot. Anybody have a good source?
 
Granted. AHA itself has never published it's own projections that I'm aware of. Still, those projections came from the members of Ebola task force and as much as they've been re-quoted I've yet to see an epidemiologist argue against them. Anyhoo, it's all speculation at this point. The morbidity rate will likely be something similar to that or higher if herd immunity is the end game. Mortality? Who knows? We're not Italy. We're not S Korea either.
 
MTGomer said:
Senator Paul has tested positive but is asymptomatic.
Considering you have to be rich, famous or a politician to get tested without having symptoms, I wonder how many cases there are.
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Lots
 
Southern Elk said:
Curious if anyone has any information to help decipher some of the data seen here? Right now we are at 1.3% death rate. We all can agree that the number of cases is underestimated, possibly vastly underestimated. So the death rate is lower.

Will the number of deaths increase dramatically with time? How long does it take for someone to die from this?

If you compare our numbers to Italy, we have half the number of cases, but only 7% as many deaths. I sure would like to look optimistically at these number.View attachment 132061
Click to expand...

The people who died today were most likely confirmed positive when our number of confirmed cases was much lower. Currently, the perceived death rate from that number is likely lower than it would be if you compared it to the day they were confirmed positive.

The apparent mortality rate in the US using the numbers posted on Worldometer isn’t going to be easily interpreted for quite some time. The first problem is the lag time between testing positive and death, the second problem is who we are testing. Initially, it was very prudent only to test those who with a high probability of actually having it in order to avoid a high percentage of the positives being false(If false positives are 1% and the actual prevalence is 1% then half your positive results are false. I’m sure the test is better than that, but you get my point. Also, if even sick people are only turning up an extremely low prevalence, then all the positives may be false positives). Now that we know it’s here, and real, we can start testing more people as resources become available. Testing more people with fewer symptoms should turn up more cases without fatalities, lowering the perceived death rate. Which of those effects is going to show itself in the data first I can’t predict. The real number is a long way off.

I still think the best way to judge this is to compare Italy’s daily death toll to their normal all cause death toll at normal flu season peaks. I still haven’t found that data, but their two worst days showed covid-19 to account for about 1/3 of their average daily all cause deaths(1750 roughly). That’s unnerving, but without A) Italy’s total all cause death on those days, and B) The highest few days in each year of the last 5-10 years, it’s still quite difficult to tell, but it does look bad.
 
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