COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[406dn]

Frank concedes that NY could have more than 1400 by itself. NY is actually modeling at 1700 by itself at the moment. But the country as a whole is modeling about 1400 With all states combined. NYC is an outlier right now. But I bet he ends up fairly close in a couple weeks.

So, 1700 just for NY and another 1400 across the country. Thats 3100, so he's off by a factor of two right now on his original projection. We lost 140 yesterday. With how many new cases are being found right now, in three weeks time, there will be more deaths per day than there are right now.

I have no doubt Frank is way above my pay grade mathematically. He hasn't fully recognized every variable he needs to consider.

 

[ImBillT]

‘It’s going to get bad’: As outbreak surges, nation faces tough start to a grim week — The Washington Post

For the first time, the U.S. on Monday reported more than 100 coronavirus-related deaths in a single day

apple.news

100 people died today. I fear the next couple of weeks will be grim in terms of the death toll, as the number of fatalities rises with the spike in cases we are seeing right now.

The flu killed over 4000/week in the US in the 2017-2018 flu season.

2017–2018 United States flu season - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[LWC55]

So, 1700 just for NY and another 1400 across the country. Thats 3100, so he's off by a factor of two right now on his original projection. We lost 140 yesterday. With how many new cases are being found right now, in three weeks time, there will be more deaths per day than there are right now.

I have no doubt Frank is way above my pay grade mathematically. He hasn't fully recognized every variable he needs to consider.

The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths. (from ImBillT's source above).

OK, I bet Frank is not but let's say he is off by a factor of 10 and that we have 14,000 US deaths from corona.That would be close to the monthly seasonal flu deaths from the very recent 2017-18 flu season (factoring in a 5 month flu season and 61,0999 deaths). Now think about how many news stories, cancelled events, worldwide hysteria, economic collapse from corona. Be honest with me. If we take the emotion out and think about this logically, do the numbers match the hysteria.

 

[rmauch20]

The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths. (from ImBillT's source above).

OK, I bet Frank is not but let's say he is off by a factor of 10 and that we have 14,000 US deaths from corona.That would be close to the monthly seasonal flu deaths from the very recent 2017-18 flu season (factoring in a 5 month flu season and 61,0999 deaths). Now think about how many news stories, cancelled events, worldwide hysteria, economic collapse from corona. Be honest with me. If we take the emotion out and think about this logically, do the numbers match the hysteria.

What is no, Alex

 

[406dn]

Be honest with me. If we take the emotion out and think about this logically, do the numbers match the hysteria.

We won't know the answer fully until we get it behind us.

 

[JLS]

We won't know the answer fully until we get it behind us.

Exactly.

 

[NEWHunter]

Now think about how many news stories, cancelled events, worldwide hysteria, economic collapse from corona. Be honest with me. If we take the emotion out and think about this logically, do the numbers match the hysteria.

Based on the information available today - yes. The fatality rate of the flu is about 0.10%. Coronavirus is low single digits. Say 3%. That difference is huge. The only saving grace would be that there are are substantially more infected people out there that aren’t getting counted. Given how long this has gone on globally, I’m starting to think that’s not the case.

So yes, a disease this contagious and this deadly, in today’s society, is a big deal. If you let folks live their normal lives, infection rates will climb, as will hospitalizations and the hospital system will be overwhelmed. Your low single digit fatality rate will climb in to the mid to high single digits. You’re then looking at the Spanish Flu again - that was a BIG deal.

 

[LWC55]

The flu killed over 4000/week in the US in the 2017-2018 flu season.

2017–2018 United States flu season - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

On February 10, 2018, Fortune reported that influenza in the United States was killing up to 4,000 Americans a week

Wonder what would have happened way back in 2018 if every news outlet on earth had a DEATH TICKER METER scrolling across the screen 24/7??? That could have made for a very bad flu season.

 

[ImBillT]

We won't know the answer fully until we get it behind us.

Sounds like a good recent to set the world on fire...

 

[LWC55]

We won't know the answer fully until we get it behind us.

I agree we don't know it fully. But the answer gets clearer every day.

 

[ImBillT]

Based on the information available today - yes. The fatality rate of the flu is about 0.10%. Coronavirus is low single digits. Say 3%. That difference is huge. The only saving grace would be that there are are substantially more infected people out there that aren’t getting counted. Given how long this has gone on globally, I’m starting to think that’s not the case.

So yes, a disease this contagious and this deadly, in today’s society, is a big deal.

Corona is only around 1-3% because we’re almost exclusively testing very sick people.

Germany is showing close to .4%.

 

[ImBillT]

On February 10, 2018, Fortune reported that influenza in the United States was killing up to 4,000 Americans a week

Wonder what would have happened way back in 2018 if every news outlet on earth had a DEATH TICKER METER scrolling across the screen 24/7??? That could have made for a very bad flu season.

The same page said that a hospital in Cali was getting as many as 200 ER visits/day. I don’t what they’re at right now, but I’d wager that a high percentage are only there because of panic.

Yesterday I heard doctor on the radio say he had to talk a patient out of suicide over the phone because the patient was having a panic attack about the possibility of catching corona.

 

[NEWHunter]

Corona is only around 1-3% because we’re almost exclusively testing very sick people.

Germany is showing close to .4%.

That’s the most important piece of the puzzle. If 0.40% is the reality, then we need to test the heck out of folks and prove it.

 

[LWC55]

Based on the information available today - yes. The fatality rate of the flu is about 0.10%. Coronavirus is low single digits. Say 3%. That difference is huge. The only saving grace would be that there are are substantially more infected people out there that aren’t getting counted. Given how long this has gone on globally, I’m starting to think that’s not the case.

So yes, a disease this contagious and this deadly, in today’s society, is a big deal. If you let folks live their normal lives, infection rates will climb, as will hospitalizations and the hospital system will be overwhelmed. Your low single digit fatality rate will climb in to the mid to high single digits. You’re then looking at the Spanish Flu again - that was a BIG deal.

Coronavirus mortality rate is not 3%. In our Corona Epicenter of NY it is .7% only factoring in confirmed cases (183 deaths/23,230 confirmed cases). Factor in that we have tested a very small part of the population and the fact that NYC is one of our most crowded and congested cities. The true mortality rate is almost certain to be much lower than .7%

 

[LWC55]

That’s the most important piece of the puzzle. If 0.40% is the reality, then we need to test the heck out of folks and prove it.

I agree with this. I stole this from a news story on tv. But why can't we take a few billion from the multi trillion stimulus package and AMAZON PRIME THE HELL OUT OF CORONA TEST KITS???? Get one to every American's doorstep in 2 days. I'm not sure that is possible but we could do it very quickly if we really wanted the true numbers. You really don't have to test every American. You could do a random sample across the country of 1 million, or probably even 100,000 and get a very accurate sample set.

 

[LWC55]

Corona is only around 1-3% because we’re almost exclusively testing very sick people.

Germany is showing close to .4%.

What have Germany .4% and New York .7% done to lower their mortality rate less than the average? They have tested more.

 

[406dn]

I agree we don't know it fully. But the answer gets clearer every day.

I don't know, from here, it looks like you might have some sand in your eyes.

 

[MTGomer]

The lack of testing is frustrating and beginning to effect healthcare workers and hospital staffing.

If you are 30 and have symptoms, they tell you to quarantine for 14 days. If you’re a nurse, you need to be able to go to work if your test comes back negative in a couple days, but you can’t get tested, so you have to stay home for 14 days.

 

[NEWHunter]

Coronavirus mortality rate is not 3%. In our Corona Epicenter of NY it is .7% only factoring in confirmed cases (183 deaths/23,230 confirmed cases). Factor in that we have tested a very small part of the population and the fact that NYC is one of our most crowded and congested cities. The true mortality rate is almost certain to be much lower than .7%

Mortality rate is a lagging indicator. This thing doesn’t get you overnight. I’m not sold on 0.70% in NY. Run your fatalities today based on cases a week ago. And until they PROVE it’s well less than 1% it’s a big deal. Italy.

 

[ImBillT]

Italy has 1057 cases/million residents. That would come out to 380,520 scaled up to the US. And that’s just cases. You can bet they’ve had lot fewer hospitalizations.

In the 2017-2018 flu season there were 959,000 flu related hospitalizations. I’m not so sure we’re destined to overwhelm our hospitals if people stop panicking.