COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[BuzzH]

I've created, seen, and analyzed a lot of practical data. You can mess with %'s to make them say nearly anything you want. Leave out the sample size, C.I., and model assumptions and it's very nearly a useless number. Sample size alone doesn't fix scope of inference, confounding variable, and model assumption problems.

I'm very much a data guy, but in this case I feel the "art" of applying medical science and first hand accounts need to carry more weight than normal.

The cost:benefit of the current closures is a completely separate matter that's theoretically informed by data, but it's more like a broken link at present. It seems to me like that link will continue to be broken until testing capacity is vastly increased.

I just spent the last 6-8 weeks writing a report on sample size, confidence interval, sampling error, standard error, data collection errors, etc. on data we collect and you're exactly right.

Everyone should read SnowyMountaineer's first paragraph a couple times...its a great summary to the complexity of data analysis and how we model data.

Its not easy to draw absolute conclusions, even from very good data sometimes, even with large sample sizes, etc....seen it.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

And just like that India locked down 1.3 billon people at once with a 21 day timeline. Via AJ english
India locks down 1.3 billion people: Live coronavirus updatesView attachment 132507
https://aje.io/etlm5

Having been to India I truly cannot imagine how this will play out. It is busy beyond what seems possible, all day every day. If ever there was a poster child for a place where shutting down the economy will directly result in a lot of deaths, this might be it. The sheer number of people living day to day is overwhelming; the averages may or may not bear it out because there is considerable wealth on the top end.

 

[Tradewind]

And just like that India locked down 1.3 billon people at once with a 21 day timeline. Via AJ english
India locks down 1.3 billion people: Live coronavirus updatesView attachment 132507
https://aje.io/etlm5

My robo calls have stopped, so there's that

 

[ImBillT]

But I don't think the point is about deaths. The point is that in America, in OUR country, people get access. Everyone gets a chance. Nobody gets told to stay home and die. And Doctors don't do triage in the ER. Those are fundamental ideas that we hold as Americans, part of a suite of ideas that form the basis that America is the greatest country on the planet.

Who was saying that we shouldn’t offer medical care?

 

[LWC55]

Top 5 R resources on COVID-19 Coronavirus

Best R resources (Shiny app, R packages, code and data) about COVID-19 Coronavirus that you can use freely to analyze the disease outbreak

towardsdatascience.com

Seems to be lots of data analysis and modeling here. I just want to put it out there so people can have some other resources to evaluate the numbers. Feel free to pick through it and post good news, bad news, trends, etc...

 

[ImBillT]

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flxl5p

Obviously their first month may not be their worst.

 

[VikingsGuy]

existential risk to the future of humankind.

undoubtably hyperbole

 

[dcopas78]

The Data

Our most up-to-date data on COVID-19 in the US.

covidtracking.com

don't know if this is posted or not
has testing numbers per state

 

[Nameless Range]

undoubtably hyperbole

Not to sidetrack too much. I agree under the current situation this may be hyperbole, but when a virus comes along with a 60% mortality rate, which we know is absolutely possible and would not require anything supernatural, then the inability of certain people to embrace science exacerbates existential risk.

This podcast with Amesh Adalja, who is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University, really alarmed me. His point was basically, as bad as this is, it is a dress rehearsal for something much worse. If you are a podcast person this was early on in the Pandemic, (man, March 11th seems like a long time ago!) but I think a fair bit is still relevant.

Sam Harris | #191 - Early Thoughts on a Pandemic

Sam Harris speaks with Amesh Adalja about the spreading coronavirus pandemic.

samharris.org

 

[VikingsGuy]

Not to sidetrack too much. I agree under the current situation this may be hyperbole, but when a virus comes along with a 60% mortality rate, which we know is absolutely possible and would not require anything supernatural, then the inability of certain people to embrace science exacerbates existential risk.

I think much "science denial" in the current state of affairs is more about disagreeing with the course of action than it is actually disagreeing with science. But this is a whole other thread for a whole other day.

 

[Tradewind]

In layman's terms, here is what you are looking at:


>
> “Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
> It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
>
> Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
>
> Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
>
> Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
>
> H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
>
> Fast forward.
>
> Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
>
> This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity... doctors have no known medicines for it.
>
> And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
>
> That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
>
> We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
>
> Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
>
> And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
>
> Be smart folks...
>
> #flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.”

 

[Cheesehead]

These may have been posted already, but I certainly found them helpful. One thing I’ve been thinking about is ‘what’s the end game with this?’ Obviously there will be / is a huge economic shock, but does this play out as basically 1) minimize damage (In particular, flattening the curve to avoid hospital pandemonium) until a vaccine is vetted and scaled or 2) Just letting it slowly burn through the population until the number of recovered folks is high. Basically Mitigation and Suppression strategies in the second article below

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

medium.com

 

[VikingsGuy]

In layman's terms, here is what you are looking at:


>
> “Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
> It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
>
> Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
>
> Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
>
> Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
>
> H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
>
> Fast forward.
>
> Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
>
> This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity... doctors have no known medicines for it.
>
> And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
>
> That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
>
> We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
>
> Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
>
> And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
>
> Be smart folks...
>
> #flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.”

Sadly this error filled quote has shown up again. Yes, the goal is to flatten the curve. However, this attempt at explaining the science gets a D-minus at best.

 

[npaden]

So back to Italy and my very basic math skills. Both new cases and deaths have dropped from Saturdays high. New cases 5,986; 6,557; 5,560; 4,789. Deaths 627, 793, 651, 601.

Is it a true peak? Really starting to look like it.

Extrapolating that into what numbers would end up looking like for the U.S. and it looks very encouraging compared to some of the early projections especially.

Today's numbers didn't fit into the graph as well. 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths. Still looking like the peak for new cases, deaths are still lower than the all time high of 793 but are the 2nd highest. At least not a big jump up to all time highs like the last time there was a short dip. Still hopeful that it was the peak on the 21st. Some of this may be reporting errors with Sunday's numbers being a little low and Monday's numbers being a little high.

Spain also is looking like it may have peaked. Still very early for them though.

 

[406dn]

Coronavirus mortality rate is not 3%. In our Corona Epicenter of NY it is .7% only factoring in confirmed cases (183 deaths/23,230 confirmed cases). Factor in that we have tested a very small part of the population and the fact that NYC is one of our most crowded and congested cities. The true mortality rate is almost certain to be much lower than .7%

You KEEP making the mistake if calculating the death rate improperly. The total deaths from the present confirmed cases in not nearly done. Close to half of their confirmed cases are from the last three days. It takes longer than that to die from the disease.

 

[ImBillT]

In layman's terms, here is what you are looking at:


>
> “Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
> It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
>
> Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
>
> Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
>
> Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
>
> H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
>
> Fast forward.
>
> Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
>
> This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity... doctors have no known medicines for it.
>
> And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
>
> That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
>
> We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
>
> Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
>
> And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
>
> Be smart folks...
>
> #flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.”

Very little of that is correct. Almost all flus originated in animals and crossed to humans. I don’t know about the cold family.

The “bird flu” and “swine flu” weren’t even very long ago.

 

[Trial153]

You KEEP making the mistake if calculating the death rate improperly. The total deaths from the present confirmed cases in not nearly done. Close to half of their confirmed cases are from the last three days. It takes longer than that to die from the disease.

for example, china though unreliable still have many open cases, of which about 3000 are listed as critical.

 

[Nameless Range]

Face Masks: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

There’s been recent controversy about the use of face masks for protection against coronavirus. Mainstream sources, including the CDC and most of the media say masks are likely useless and no…

slatestarcodex.com

 

[Doublecluck]

While I believe the medical experts on the subject, I also believe the economic experts predictions. What’s being done, what has been done is done, the question is with what has been done and is being done will we find a treatment/vaccine/etc before the medical safety of .5-5% of the population becomes less important than the economic/medical/nutritional safety of the entire population. It’s not like we flatten the curve and 20-30 days from now we come out of this and it’s over, in the absence of vaccine/treatment we are just back where we were 15 days ago with maybe some more hospital beds, ventilators/masks.

I did find this interesting on the United States update today on Worldometer

• “Probably "hundreds of thousands of people" have already had Covid-19, didn't know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going“
• 
  

 

[Tradewind]

Sadly this error filled quote has shown up again. Yes, the goal is to flatten the curve. However, this attempt at explaining the science gets a D-minus at best.

Since this thread is about facts. Tell us exactly how the virus came about and how it transfers, mutates, etc. and where this quote got it wrong.
I'd like to know