Caribou Gear

COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Since this thread is about facts. Tell us exactly how the virus came about and how it transfers, mutates, etc. and where this quote got it wrong.
I'd like to know

Viruses mutate all the time. Most flu viruses jumped from animals to humans. We’ve found new viruses before ie. SARS, MERS, Ebola. Was West Nile new?

Heck the H1N1 “swine flu” of 2009 was a new mutation of the H1N1 that caused the 1918 Spanish Flu.
 
Since this thread is about facts. Tell us exactly how the virus came about and how it transfers, mutates, etc. and where this quote got it wrong.
I'd like to know
If I have time tonight I may, but lots of mistakes and may not have time to go through them all.
 
Viruses mutate all the time. Most flu viruses jumped from animals to humans. We’ve found new viruses before ie. SARS, MERS, Ebola. Was West Nile new?

Heck the H1N1 “swine flu” of 2009 was a new mutation of the H1N1 that caused the 1918 Spanish Flu.
yes, tht was mentioned in the quote I posted. Again, for those of us who are not infectious disease experts, Tellme where that quote is wrong, or why it is wrong or how they got it wrong, instead of taklking in generalities
 
If I have time tonight I may, but lots of mistakes and may not have time to go through them all.
Well, you have plenty of time to post and pass this off with a broad brush. Tell us where the mistakes are, specifically, so I won't pass off any more misinformation
 
You KEEP making the mistake if calculating the death rate improperly. The total deaths from the present confirmed cases in not nearly done. Close to half of their confirmed cases are from the last three days. It takes longer than that to die from the disease.
Feel free to show me how to figure the mortality rate. But I figured it the same way the world health organization figured it initially when they had done very little testing and they came up with 3-4% mortality rate. Now we have done lots more more testing. Especially in NY and that number has been holding steady at .7% for several days. I'm not saying we won't see a spike because that could happen. But to assume the people just being tested, JUST NOW got the virus is also not a valid assumption. Considering they have been on lockdown for over a week.

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower.

 
yes, tht was mentioned in the quote I posted. Again, for those of us who are not infectious disease experts, Tellme where that quote is wrong, or why it is wrong or how they got it wrong, instead of taklking in generalities

It’s wrong by saying that this virus is different from others and more difficult to stop because it “came from animals” and “isn’t an all human virus”.

Lots of viruses have come from animals and not been “all human”.
 
We have entirely to many experts on this thread. Just saying 🤔🤔🤔


This was just a drive by post, please dont have an aneurism.
 
Feel free to show me how to figure the mortality rate. But I figured it the same way the world health organization figured it initially when they had done very little testing and they came up with 3-4% mortality rate. Now we have done lots more more testing. Especially in NY and that number has been holding steady at .7% for several days. I'm not saying we won't see a spike because that could happen. But to assume the people just being tested, JUST NOW got the virus is also not a valid assumption. Considering they have been on lockdown for over a week.

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower.


How about stating your estimate as >0.7%. We could both agree that it is greater than that. We can't know the real number until all of the cases and deaths are in the rear view mirror.
 
Well, you have plenty of time to post and pass this off with a broad brush. Tell us where the mistakes are, specifically, so I won't pass off any more misinformation
Posting a 50 line supposedly science-based item that has literally a dozen science-based errors does not make it other users' burden to go through and write a 30 line correction for your benefit. Other than reminding us to flatten the curve, this post adds nothing to this thread. And it is quicker to post the "error warning" than to fix and explain all the errors - hence I had time to warn those that actually want to use facts to understand - and I may or may not have time to spend much more time correcting all the errors. If you posted the world was flat, I might just reply - "no" - and not write a thesis explaining my objection.
 
How about stating your estimate as >0.7%. We could both agree that it is greater than that. We can't know the real number until all of the cases and deaths are in the rear view mirror.
Mainly because it isn't an estimate, why don't we call it current? Or most up to date? It is actually .8% at the moment if I'm being transparent which I'm trying to be. 210/25,665
 
> Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Novel just means new. It doesn't mean it came from an animal. Also, the human body has no legacy acquired immunity (at least one that that this statement seems to imply). There is a lot of stuff in this paragraph alone that would drive a medical student crazy.
 
Mainly because it isn't an estimate, why don't we call it current? Or most up to date? It is actually .8% at the moment if I'm being transparent which I'm trying to be. 210/25,665

No your number is an inaccurate guess. You call it whatever you want.
 
I know I would love to be tested as I feel we all had it and my son was the only one to show even minor symptoms. But I really want to go see my family. Skype ain't cuttin' it.
 
The death toll has doubled every 7 days on average since February 25th. If this rate continues, 300,000 people will be dead within 4 weeks.
 
No your number is an inaccurate guess. You call it whatever you want.
I told you I'm a simple man. But the mortality rate is not a guess. It is simple math. Same simple math the WHO used to start this whole panic. My math is just going off of more days of testing in NY. Either dispute it with facts or move on.
 
It’s wrong by saying that this virus is different from others and more difficult to stop because it “came from animals” and “isn’t an all human virus”.

Lots of viruses have come from animals and not been “all human”.
Nice glossing. The quote says it is difficult to stop because of the way it mutated, not because "it came from animals".
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Use Promo Code Randy for 20% off OutdoorClass

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
113,619
Messages
2,026,925
Members
36,245
Latest member
scottbenson
Back
Top