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COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

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Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe - PMC

Background  The origin and estimated death toll of the 1918–1919 epidemic are still debated. Europe, one of the candidate sites for pandemic emergence, has detailed pandemic mortality information. Objective  To determine the mortality impact of the ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The Spanish flu of 1918 seems to have caused Italy(which took the hardest blow then as well) to experience a death rate 2.74X the norm. Currently Italy is WELL below that level. 627 is 36% of the daily average, which we should expect to be elevated during cold/flu season.
 
Hunting Wife said:
Confirmed case in Froid, MT - a cruise ship passenger who refused to self quarantine upon return....
Click to expand...


Crazy. I was slated to spend a couple weeks in Froid next month for work, and the last week has changed those plans.

Related to someone’s refusal to self-quarantine. People do not get it, and I don’t think they will get it until people they know die and by then it will be too late. My family and I were invited to a dinner party tonight with two other families - 20ish guests. It pissed me off and of course I declined. My wife is literally swabbing people noses in a tent.

I have heard quite a few people try to downplay what’s going on and act like nothing’s wrong. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that those people aren’t going to be there when the organs of others are failing, and terrible decisions are being made, and virus is in the air.
 
Mom
Hunting Wife said:
Confirmed case in Froid, MT - a cruise ship passenger who refused to self quarantine upon return. If you know where that is, you know that extremely rural living is no automatic safety net in today’s global society. I guess we’ll find out shortly if we dodged a bullet...or not.

For perspective, since I saw numbers for these recently, Williston ND is the closest population center of any size and has 12 ventilators. Divide County, ND is also adjacent, and has 1 in the entire county. Several neighboring counties have zero. Even in rural areas, if people don’t follow social distancing, cases could very quickly overwhelm available medical resources.
Click to expand...
Mom is from Culbertson and I have lots of friends in the area. If that ain't an example of it can get anywhere at any time I dunno what is. Sorry to hear that hope everything is ok. I'm hopeful that these medical experiments work out for everyone!
 
Nameless Range said:
Crazy. I was slated to spend a couple weeks in Froid next month for work, and the last week has changed those plans.

Related to someone’s refusal to self-quarantine. People do not get it, and I don’t think they will get it until people they know die and by then it will be too late. My family and I were invited to a dinner party tonight with two other families - 20ish guests. It pissed me off and of course I declined. My wife is literally swabbing people noses in a tent.

I have heard quite a few people try to downplay what’s going on and act like nothing’s wrong. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that those people aren’t going to be there when the organs of others are failing, and terrible decisions are being made, and virus is in the air.
Click to expand...

I’m flipping back and forth on exactly how bad I think this is, but I dang sure ain’t getting close to anyone, touching anyone, eating out etc. Attending a dinner party of twenty plus? HECK NO!

I’m all for skepticism on how long we should burn down how much of our economy, but ignoring the situation altogether is ridiculous.
 
My wife is a member of a local moms Facebook page and multiple clueless moms are on Spring vacation right now in California and Washington with their kids. She’s pretty infuriated by the matter..
 
Quackillr said:
My wife is a member of a local moms Facebook page and multiple clueless moms are on Spring vacation right now in California and Washington with their kids. She’s pretty infuriated by the matter..
Click to expand...

An otherwise intelligent/educated old friend of mine and his equally accomplished wife went on their African safari in the face of this. Last I heard, they are hoping to be a plane somewhere about right now trying to get home to what they have to go through upon their hopefully safe and expedient return.
No lack of these stories for sure.
But they killed shit.
 
Somebody commented to me about returning to a hunting forum to talk about a virus.
Hunters paid my wages for 30+ years. I was lucky. I hold myself accountable still to those who I worked for.
My old fish and game (what I always called MFWP) buddies are heading out on the Madison next week, electrofishing - gathering fishing data like they always have. Not isolating and sheltering in place. Cushy job.
Other people in my life work for federal agencies. They have been teleworking this week but will be called in to process fish hatchery fish health samples as needed.
I hear Game Wardens are hanging around the front door of MFWP regional HQ's, helping folks get licenses without interacting with administrative staff.
The above, right-wrong-stoopid-heroes-just everyday average grunts, however you view it, are out there.
Maybe we'll all be able to get some different understanding of things after this deal becomes what it's gonna' be when it runs it's course.
The above folks - as well as some regular posters - all work for the people on this forum.
And as much as a bunch of us ain't on the same page - isn't near as much as we're all in it together. Truck drivers, ex-military, retired gov't employee slugs, and tough guys wive's who are ER RN's..........
 
Hold your hats for this one... Corona virus has been found within dogs.

Second dog tests positive for coronavirus as owners warned not to abandon pets - MarketWatch

A German shepherd pet dog in Hong Kong has repeatedly tested positive for the Covid-19 virus after its owner was confirmed as being infected, authorities said.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com

Both the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health and the U.S.’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said there is no evidence that companion animals such as cats and dogs can spread the virus. “Therefore, there is no justification in taking measures against companion animals which may compromise their welfare,” the animal-health organization said.
Click to expand...
 
Anybody familiar with Barry Bloom? He's an old guy from Harvard that is considered a pioneer of infectious diseases, vaccines, and public health. Below is a link to a press conference he did Thursday. Pretty interesting overall. But he recognizes that what we have so far are models off of incomplete data. It seems fairly certain (to me at least) that the more people that get tested, the less catastrophic this disease will appear. Hopefully we can get more complete data asap to help make sensible policy decisions at the national, state, and local levels. This is not a one size fits all problem as we can see from the maps Randy posted. Maybe this will happen before irreparable damage is done to our rights and our nation.

www.hsph.harvard.edu

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Press Conference with Barry Bloom, 03/19/20

Transcript You’re listening to a press conference from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health featuring Barry Bloom, professor of immunology and infectious diseases and former dean of the sc…
www.hsph.harvard.edu www.hsph.harvard.edu

BARRY BLOOM: So, I may sound like a broken record that you’ve heard before. But the case fatality rate depends on two things, one of which is pretty easy to figure out, which is how many people die. In some places, it’s not always clear whether they die of this infection(COVID-19), or influenza, or something else. So, there’s a certain amount of uncertainty about just counting people who die in a given region in the middle of an epidemic.

The second, and much more difficult, is the rate depends on how many people of those infected actually die. And we have figures from China. And I think everyone would agree that not everybody was tested. So, we actually don’t know what the denominator is. And the more people who get tested, usually, the lower the case fatality rate is.

So, if you remember H1N1 in Mexico, the initial reports– case fatality rate were 5% to 10%. And that was mostly because they were looking at people who were sick, very sick, and in hospitals. But as the epidemiology played out retrospectively and one tackled how many people had any medical problem that could be related to an infection with flu, it went down to 0.07%.

So, the case fatality rate really depends on knowing the denominator. And without testing a very wide range of people, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, we tend always to get a higher number, which is the most frightening number. For the modeling studies, people that I’ve looked at– I’m modeling at about 1%. And it may drop down quite dramatically if we actually knew how many people were infected and not sick at all.
 
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Sytes said:
Hold your hats for this one... Corona virus has been found within dogs.

Second dog tests positive for coronavirus as owners warned not to abandon pets - MarketWatch

A German shepherd pet dog in Hong Kong has repeatedly tested positive for the Covid-19 virus after its owner was confirmed as being infected, authorities said.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
Click to expand...
Refused to allow the autopsy of the dog....very nice. Glad the dogs funeral was more important than the study of a rapidly evolving pandemic.
 
I’m typically skeptical of anything Vox puts out , but the chart is alarming. The key is not to focus on the raw numbers, but the rate of growth.

www.vox.com

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart

Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on a similar course.
www.vox.com www.vox.com

Also, Attia’s most recent podcast from yesterday, with guest Peter Hotez, is quite good.

peterattiamd.com

#99 - Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D.: Continuing the conversation on COVID-19 - Peter Attia

“If we have large numbers of healthcare workers sickened by the virus and in ICUs, it's 'lights out' and our whole healthcare system collapses." —Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D.
peterattiamd.com peterattiamd.com
 
Nameless Range said:
I’m typically skeptical of anything Vox puts out , but the chart is alarming. The key is not to focus on the raw numbers, but the rate of growth.

www.vox.com

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart

Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on a similar course.
www.vox.com www.vox.com

Also, Attia’s most recent podcast from yesterday, with guest Peter Hotez, is quite good.

peterattiamd.com

#99 - Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D.: Continuing the conversation on COVID-19 - Peter Attia

“If we have large numbers of healthcare workers sickened by the virus and in ICUs, it's 'lights out' and our whole healthcare system collapses." —Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D.
peterattiamd.com peterattiamd.com
Click to expand...

Also from your posted article:

To be sure, there are a lot of problems with using confirmed case data for these trajectory estimates. Italy is likely substantially undertesting, as is the US. Confirmed cases are a poor reflection of overall cases. Sometimes, growth in confirmed cases is due to increases in testing capacity, not increases in the virus’s spread.
 
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