COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

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For those that think the ventilator is a miracle treatment, it’s not. If corona virus forces you to need one, things look quite bleak. Upside is a minority of people get to that point of needing one. Granted these patients were the first in the world to need vents for corona and hopefully management has improved a bit, but 19/22 died in the one Chinese hospital.

from the article:


As of Feb 27, 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 47 countries and territories around the world.
1Xiaobo Yang and colleagues
2described 52 of 710 patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in Wuhan, China. 29 (56%) of 52 patients were given non-invasive ventilation at ICU admission, of whom 22 (76%) required further orotracheal intubation and invasive mechanical ventilation. The ICU mortality rate among those who required non-invasive ventilation was 23 (79%) of 29 and among those who required invasive mechanical ventilation was 19 (86%) of 22.

 
schmalts said:
Anyone reading this who disagrees is an idiot and will be proven so in a week. under 300 cases on Monday, over 7000 today. If 7000 tested positive think of how many are still in the incubation stage without symptoms. My guess is over 20000 this time next week and if not it is because they ran out of tests. This is not comparable to the flu, way worst and a much higher percent require intensive care. In Spain the death rate right now is 1 out of 20..... My guess is because lack of Ventilators.
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The numbers I have seen 5-7x the confirmed number of cases.
 
Anyone have an "Official" type link for the "High Risk" people? As an example, someone had a splenectomy some 10 years ago.

CDC is very vague.
www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Came across this from the UK, more of a defined list:
www.gov.uk

[Withdrawn] [Withdrawn] Guidance on social distancing for everyone in the UK

www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
 
schmalts said:
Anyone reading this who disagrees is an idiot and will be proven so in a week. under 300 cases on Monday, over 7000 today. If 7000 tested positive think of how many are still in the incubation stage without symptoms. My guess is over 20000 this time next week and if not it is because they ran out of tests. This is not comparable to the flu, way worst and a much higher percent require intensive care. In Spain the death rate right now is 1 out of 20..... My guess is because lack of Ventilators.
Click to expand...
I haven't heard one person disputing that the number of cases will soar exponentially now that we are testing more. I wouldn't doubt if it gets to 100,000 US corona cases or more in a couple weeks. Some of us are uncertain if the death rate will be closer to the 4% that some experts originally reported or less than 1% that some are saying now. Only time will tell

www.wsj.com

Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Lower Than Initial Estimates, New Study Finds

The death rate from the new coronavirus may have been lower than previously believed in the city in China where it originated, according to a new study, offering a hopeful sign for other parts of the world.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
Nameless Range said:
Maps under different scenarios of restriction.

It’s been discussed a bunch already, but look at the dates. How the hell do we move forward?


www.nytimes.com

Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say (Published 2020)

Immediate steps to limit social contact in parts of the United States where few cases have been identified are needed to slow the outbreak, a model suggests.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Keep pretending that a discussion among a bunch of hunters about THE event of all of our (and everyone in America - a few folks - not tuned into a hunting website based in little old Bozeman MT) lifetimes can move forward - with any substance - without opening any one of a few doors with the known boogemen hiding behind 'em.
I sent an email to Steve Bullock , MT governor , to follow CA & NY, proactively - he whistled in the dark - take the same measures those states did.
"Ain't that bad here yet, asshole".
I know it.
Or do I?
Carry on, luck.....................................
 
Some may not subscribe to the NY Times, who put these maps up this afternoon, showing how parts of the country would be impacted with varying degrees of control measures implemented. I took screen shots and copied here. Still not sure what to make of them, but they are interesting to watch the changes as the maps roll across the screen.

These maps show the delta between extreme control measures and no control measures in a rural place like Montana is not that much. From these maps, it appears the higher population areas will benefit greatest from extreme control measures.

Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 6.22.35 PM.png



Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 6.17.17 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 6.17.58 PM.png
 
Wonder why SD, CO, and NM have some areas shaded darker than the more populated areas in the "some control measures" scenario? That kinda stands out to me at first glance. Not arguing, just something I found interesting.
 
My original inclination verified, north side of the big lake, best place in the country to social distance under all scenarios.
 
The “no control measures” map shows a comparatively low infection rate in my area, despite containing a county of 300,000 that has active cases. I’m not convinced that any of the three maps are particularly meaningful.
 
ImBillT said:
The “no control measures” map shows a comparatively low infection rate in my area, despite containing a county of 300,000 that has active cases. I’m not convinced that any of the three maps are particularly meaningful.
Click to expand...
I know Nothing, so I'm not throwing barbs here but the map of Michigan is interesting in that they model the highest population center in better shape than the western part of the state that is more rural for the most part - just seems odd.
 
matt0550 said:
I know Nothing, so I'm not throwing barbs here but the map of Michigan is interesting in that they model the highest population center in better shape than the western part of the state that is more rural for the most part - just seems odd.
Click to expand...

They are using a database of current known cases, transportation data, census data, and probably other data like demographic data, rates of poverty, hospital beds per the population, etc.

Then they are modeling the risk. Yes, it is based on a bunch of assumptions, But it is not based on raw population alone.
 
Confirmed case in Froid, MT - a cruise ship passenger who refused to self quarantine upon return. If you know where that is, you know that extremely rural living is no automatic safety net in today’s global society. I guess we’ll find out shortly if we dodged a bullet...or not.

For perspective, since I saw numbers for these recently, Williston ND is the closest population center of any size and has 12 ventilators. Divide County, ND is also adjacent, and has 1 in the entire county. Several neighboring counties have zero. Even in rural areas, if people don’t follow social distancing, cases could very quickly overwhelm available medical resources.
 
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