Still on the short side of market life.
And... some koolAid to drink on the subject.
And... some koolAid to drink on the subject.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
Still on the short side of market life.
And... some koolAid to drink on the subject.
and i kind of think: how could it not?
Coronavirus: Lebanon begins 'total' shutdown as cases increase
There has been a steep rise in coronavirus infections since lockdown restrictions were eased.
www.bbc.com
with easing comes pain i think, unfortunately
didn't fauci just tell colleges not to count on students coming back this fall?
i still think the market is being far too optimistic when it comes to the virus
My son’s college told him during scheduling fall classes to expect the potential of continued long distance learning.and i kind of think: how could it not?
Coronavirus: Lebanon begins 'total' shutdown as cases increase
There has been a steep rise in coronavirus infections since lockdown restrictions were eased.
with easing comes pain i think, unfortunately
didn't fauci just tell colleges not to count on students coming back this fall?
i still think the market is being far too optimistic when it comes to the virus
Bigjay73
Well-known member
Hawaii is bringing kids in 3 weeks early and putting them into a 2 week quarantine. Unique location for sure.and i kind of think: how could it not?
Coronavirus: Lebanon begins 'total' shutdown as cases increase
There has been a steep rise in coronavirus infections since lockdown restrictions were eased.
with easing comes pain i think, unfortunately
didn't fauci just tell colleges not to count on students coming back this fall?
i still think the market is being far too optimistic when it comes to the virus
SAJ-99
Well-known member
The best part of the article is the oddly specific calls - first to 2400 then back to 3000 by year end. It that happened, it would be the most incredible call ever. Its a 20-25% range. What is entertaining is that it seems to allow them to claim some type of victory no matter what. If stocks fall, they got that right. If stocks rise from here, they got that part right instead. Both happen? I wouldn't bet on it There are a lot of investors that are not fully positioned they way they want and missed this rally. Other dips will be bought early. We need a lot of bad news to see 2400 again. Anything is possible, but...
you make a good point - from a kool aid perspective especially
but i'm speaking more generally and i've firmly planted my foot on the perspective that the stock market is being too optimistic.
perhaps i'm too simple minded. i assume if infection rates go up, stock market will likely go down, which is in some senses what we saw at the beginning. i have a sneaking suspicion we'll be seeing infection rates spike again across the country between now and the fall. the resistance to lockdowns is becoming intense, the chomping at the bit to get some economic activity going again is becoming too great, and until we have a vaccine -- notwithstanding the other discussion of the likelihood the eventual vaccine actually hits the nail on the head -- it would seem logical that any lessening of social restrictions beyond current is going to increase infections
and increase in infection likely means tightening things up again, which stifles economic activity again, which in theory should frighten investors
disclaimer: i make this stuff up as i go and i'm as economically educated as a starfish
SAJ-99
Well-known member
You will zero disagreement from me, but the market has been optimistic for the last decade so it doesn't surprise me. My general view is we are range bound with the 200day MA as a hard ceiling (about 3000) and the 50day MA as the floor (around 2720). We have a long and hard economic road ahead of us. TSA traveler check daily numbers just passed 200k a few days ago, versus last year at 2.5m per day last year. Protesters can protest all they want, but until people feel safe they aren't going to do much.
+1 right there
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Yup - when a business closes employees that want to go to work protest; and then when the business does open the employees who don't feel safe to go to work sue. Classic damned if you do, damned if you don't. Recent polls suggest for every person that wants the economy "opened up" there are two who want to proceed slowly. So even if the govt takes off the restraints, the consumers/travelers/shoppers/etc aren't just rushing back to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
The market v the real economy
Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy. Something has to give
One I actually pay to access/use. Forums are a bit lopsided though articles are often great insight for this rookie hobby trader.The market v the real economy
Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy. Something has to givewww.economist.com
Chilling assessment...
SAJ-99
Well-known member
If anyone is wondering where markets are headed, I found this price analysis interesting.
S&P 500 All-time high 3393
Covid-19 Low 2192
mid point 2793 (yesterday's Open 2794)
200day Simple Mov Avg 2998
50 day SMA 2712
Midpoint 2855 (yesterday's close 2852)
S&P 500 All-time high 3393
Covid-19 Low 2192
mid point 2793 (yesterday's Open 2794)
200day Simple Mov Avg 2998
50 day SMA 2712
Midpoint 2855 (yesterday's close 2852)
Executive Order on Regulatory Relief to Support Economic Recovery | The White House
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2 ("the virus") was first detected in Wuhan, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China, causing an
As an exclusive member of the short crew for our market... This one's going to hurt.
For those riding the longs, you're on the right side of this one. I don't like seeing opportunity to make $ slide by... I'm a bit late to this party. May have to flip sides... Though I'm on the short side of the warning China / U.S. Trump fight so hoping it knocks semiconductors/microchips down... I'm still up though I've wiped away some good gains and this Executive Order may place red ink on my ledger for the week.
I believe this will run a green streak through the week and possibly more. This is... Yuuuge!
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I disagree. It's puffery. I see nothing in there that is new and even less that is material at this stage of the economic recovery. I wouldn't be short, but there is nothing here that causes me to want to be more long. Price remains the driving indicator of sentiment. S&P needs to bust through 2950 in a convincing way and then it hits the 200day MA at just under 3000.Executive Order on Regulatory Relief to Support Economic Recovery | The White House
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2 ("the virus") was first detected in Wuhan, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China, causing anwww.whitehouse.gov
As an exclusive member of the short crew for our market... This one's going to hurt.
For those riding the longs, you're on the right side of this one. I don't like seeing opportunity to make $ slide by... I'm a bit late to this party. May have to flip sides... Though I'm on the short side of the warning China / U.S. Trump fight so hoping it knocks semiconductors/microchips down... I'm still up though I've wiped away some good gains and this Executive Order may place red ink on my ledger for the week.
I believe this will run a green streak through the week and possibly more. This is... Yuuuge!
Below is the problem the economy faces. The market can overlook it for a while, and has to get us to this point. The question is over what time frame does a recovery happen. Notice that 2001 and 2007 took the longest time on the chart.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Yup, I just keep believing that at some point wall street will have to reconnect with mainstreet realities but hasn't so far. Guess it's good I am not an economic advisor.
MO Betta
Well-known member
I worry about some of the consequences of this executive order, not just from an economic perspective.Executive Order on Regulatory Relief to Support Economic Recovery | The White House
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2 ("the virus") was first detected in Wuhan, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China, causing an
Irrelevant
Well-known member
I'm a little nervous about how little the market has reflected the current covid situation, so nervous that I actually sold some stock and moved it into some more secure locations for the time being. i just struggle to believe that with 30mil not working full time that stocks are hitting all time highs.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
The only people that are going to make money on this move are the lawyers on both sides litigating every little step. This is noise more than substance - little will change either direction.
It's an example of *hope catching the ride upwards. This Executive Order is another catalyst for *hope.
If hope prevails, this is great for the longs. I'm short because I believe we're in for another drop as past recoveries have shown. *Hope is a very fragile egg to dance upon however, it's hard pressed to ignore the green North Shore wave many are riding.
THAT is my interest for my hobby swing trading. I am missing some green and think this Executive Order may propel this for today- Thursday w/ a pullback Friday and if drama does not blow it's lid over the weekend, this "Nobody knows the stock market like I do" Trump card order, this may propel for a green Monday-Tuesday... Then? I believe a correction will play it's evil hand... And I'll be back in the green.
Meanwhile, the China/U.S. battle is intensifying and that helps my puts, as mentioned above. I wish it would accelerate... Haha!
It makes me wonder though... From an Intra/swing trading perspective, I'm on the fence whether to play this for calls vs puts for the week. I'm thinking... it's a buy / call opportunity. Unless this fizzles out end of day...
As for the long term, my TSP is at work. This is Intra/swing play chat... Not looking at the long term, versions of recession rebuild history.
If hope prevails, this is great for the longs. I'm short because I believe we're in for another drop as past recoveries have shown. *Hope is a very fragile egg to dance upon however, it's hard pressed to ignore the green North Shore wave many are riding.
THAT is my interest for my hobby swing trading. I am missing some green and think this Executive Order may propel this for today- Thursday w/ a pullback Friday and if drama does not blow it's lid over the weekend, this "Nobody knows the stock market like I do" Trump card order, this may propel for a green Monday-Tuesday... Then? I believe a correction will play it's evil hand... And I'll be back in the green.
Meanwhile, the China/U.S. battle is intensifying and that helps my puts, as mentioned above. I wish it would accelerate... Haha!
It makes me wonder though... From an Intra/swing trading perspective, I'm on the fence whether to play this for calls vs puts for the week. I'm thinking... it's a buy / call opportunity. Unless this fizzles out end of day...
As for the long term, my TSP is at work. This is Intra/swing play chat... Not looking at the long term, versions of recession rebuild history.
I was thinking the same... Was scouring the HT forum looking for our HT member who hides behind his second HT account as, "Mark" post this Executive Order as the destruction of the world... Haha!
