noharleyyet
Well-known member
The situation is obvious...the stock market must be impeached.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
SAJ-99
Well-known member
The last 5 days have been crazy. I think it is a Robinhood rally. HTZ up 350%, JCP up 177%, CHK up over 400%. These companies are in or filing for bankruptcy. In bankruptcy, more than likely the equity will be worthless. Some people will make money and others will be caught holding a worthless position. This is what happens when you give a bunch of inexperienced people free money and a trading account. It reminds me a lot of the Dot Com era. Look for more anecdotal interviews from people saying they should quit their job and do this for a living. Not sure when it ends, but it won't end well.
I agree with the sentiment though don't agree with the Robinhood thought.
That's chump change compared to the financial institutions using $ to initiate the wave Robinhood-ers jump on to ride.
Meh, wish I was selling green though my "Robinhood activity" for, "lunch $" is a bit pinched though recovering... Slowly. Coin flip... Wrong side for my play.
Be it $20k for turnarounds or $5k... It's a drop in the bucket in comparison.
This market is an altered reality. While my TSP is doing great having placed my $ in the G fund prior to the plunge and hopped back in reservedly so, in the F fund early May... I'm not rebuilding what I would have lost, I'm capitalizing on the gains I've made. Close to slotting it back into the G fund...
We're about to find the enlarged hole covered by institution fabricated carpet, imo.
Bah! I *should have placed a strangle. Kicking myself as I pondered what legs to place... Should have, could have... But didn't. Haha!
Time will tell.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Let's use HTZ. HTZ top 10 owners account for about 80% of total shares outstanding. Icahn can't sell anything, Vanguard is index, Blackrock is index, SSGA is index, DFA is enhanced index, Ren Tech is a HF so it is impossible to know what is on the other side of that trade. My point is most institutional holders can't sell or won't until the index drops the stock. Consequently, it doesn't take a Whale to swing the price. Second screen shot is a order book. Look at size column and remember this is $5 stock. It looks a lot like AAPL's which is $330/shr. In HTZ, even a 1000 lot is only $5000. and the company is bankrupt and shares are going to zero. No institutional investor is buying.
Edit: Icahn filed his 13D and sold his entire holding on May 26 at $0.72/shr. No way to tell who the buyer was yet, but probably a work-out specialist that will try to turn it into new shares in the post-reorg company.
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Interesting "correction" for a Thursday... Would have thought had this been set to occur, it would have been a Friday due to uncertain weekend activity both politically and, well... Seems politically x's 2... Haha!
Think tomorrow may be a second dump, more mild though w/ increase of covid #'s so early in phase two... Who knows what this weekend holds and I think that should place fear however I'm on the losing side of this right now well, I should say today I'm doing great! However the past two weeks I've been biting the bullet. so I wouldn't take my hobby advice to mean anything though it sure seems from my massive expansive experience... I'd be surprised if Friday was a big rebound from today.
Then again this market is on its own little spinning world.
Thoughts?
Think tomorrow may be a second dump, more mild though w/ increase of covid #'s so early in phase two... Who knows what this weekend holds and I think that should place fear however I'm on the losing side of this right now well, I should say today I'm doing great! However the past two weeks I've been biting the bullet. so I wouldn't take my hobby advice to mean anything though it sure seems from my massive expansive experience... I'd be surprised if Friday was a big rebound from today.
Then again this market is on its own little spinning world.
Thoughts?
LousyResident
Well-known member
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2016
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- 3,107
Thoughts? Today sucked lol
I shouldn't be surprised, but I wish I had been prepared.
Edited to add I'm down nearly 14% today alone.
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SAJ-99
Well-known member
Aint that the truth. Fed says the money spigot will remain open for as far as the eye can see and we sell off by 6%. I had become pretty defensive over the last 200 S&P points, but turned a little of that cash into equities today. Too much money out there. All dips will get bought.
Cramer on stock market plunge: There's been a 'happiness trade' out of sync with 'everything'
"I think you just kind of have to let it come down and see whether there's anything left of the day traders after they have their margin calls," said "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/coronavirus-live-updates.html
Ouch Down 5% in my stocks today, but did turn a little profit on a put sell this morning.
After that I went on a buying spree on call options, we will see how that ends up in the next month.
As for the market, the way it has been lately, flip a coin on whether it will be up or down tomorrow or any day for that matter.
After that I went on a buying spree on call options, we will see how that ends up in the next month.
As for the market, the way it has been lately, flip a coin on whether it will be up or down tomorrow or any day for that matter.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Had not made a trade in about 3 weeks. Sitting on 100% cash after numerous buy/hold until say 2% - 5% rise then sold. Was not fun watching all the green day after day so a test of faith that was not being ignorant and the market would pull back near or beyond the lows earlier. Nibbling again as falls and will still sell if a bounce. I never bought the idea the stock market could remain out of sync with the economy or that the pain was now 100% baked in by the market.
There may not be a lot of great growth options for investing for this year but to me that did not mean stocks at any valuation were the place to park money for the long-term when there is no vaccine and millions are without jobs now though were working a few months ago and most of those jobless are about to lose the Federal kicker.
I see the permanently closed eateries, small retail shops and now some major retail spots. That drives rents down and commercial property valuation of the strip malls. Some of that strip mall store front space will be vacant for another year or two or three.
Anyway, I am wrong enough to know I could be very, very wrong now about the stock market. I just have not given up on the belief that stocks need to reflect the present value of a stream of likely dividends and likely price growth for several upcoming quarters and years. I do not see how that revenue stream is now worth 90%+ of what we believed was worth in mid-February. Time will tell.
If you want to compare what I feel are several seasoned investors in this thread to what seems to be newbies viewing the stock market as a casino then go check out a similar thread about the current stock market over at Rokslide.
There may not be a lot of great growth options for investing for this year but to me that did not mean stocks at any valuation were the place to park money for the long-term when there is no vaccine and millions are without jobs now though were working a few months ago and most of those jobless are about to lose the Federal kicker.
I see the permanently closed eateries, small retail shops and now some major retail spots. That drives rents down and commercial property valuation of the strip malls. Some of that strip mall store front space will be vacant for another year or two or three.
Anyway, I am wrong enough to know I could be very, very wrong now about the stock market. I just have not given up on the belief that stocks need to reflect the present value of a stream of likely dividends and likely price growth for several upcoming quarters and years. I do not see how that revenue stream is now worth 90%+ of what we believed was worth in mid-February. Time will tell.
If you want to compare what I feel are several seasoned investors in this thread to what seems to be newbies viewing the stock market as a casino then go check out a similar thread about the current stock market over at Rokslide.
I believe internet forums related to topics such as this are more for the glory/misery desires company... Haha!
I know for a fact in the vast majority of my posts related to the stock market I intentionally post comments such as "hobby"...
I greatly enjoy reading all perspectives shared whether in agreement or disagreement. In fact, I enjoy moreso, when it comes to making $$$, I enjoy opposing thoughts. I really despise koolAid mind frames.
I enjoy those along the same stock positions for the misery/glory side as well.
This has been a fantastic thread to post and follow. No need for another armchair stock market hunt forum.
I know for a fact in the vast majority of my posts related to the stock market I intentionally post comments such as "hobby"...
I greatly enjoy reading all perspectives shared whether in agreement or disagreement. In fact, I enjoy moreso, when it comes to making $$$, I enjoy opposing thoughts. I really despise koolAid mind frames.
I enjoy those along the same stock positions for the misery/glory side as well.
This has been a fantastic thread to post and follow. No need for another armchair stock market hunt forum.
Today sucked, yesterday sucked. My hunch is Friday will suck but not as bad as today. Congratulations to those that ran to cash on Tuesday. I was close to doing it... the majority of my holdings are high dividend stocks and in my little world it makes it a little harder to part with them at the price I bought. I sold Amazon on Monday and bought VZ. Call me stupid but I have a problem with Amazon not paying a dividend. Just old school I guess. One of my best gainers took a beating this week, oneok. They are doing a public offering and it was under the current price when announced. Shitty deal , it crushed my gains. I gotta admit I don't fully understand it
I got real aggressive selling on Monday. So aggressive that I actually wanted to sell more but the market closed before I could get it all sold. Have a nice stash sitting on the sidelines. Now I just need to time my re-entry. Hard to say where this thing goes, I’m guessing/hoping we’ll test new lows by the end of the year.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
The latest HTZ update, the company is trying to sell stock to fund its bankruptcy. Can't say I have ever seen that before. Best part, the stock is up 50% on the news. Just more evidence that it isn't institutional money driving some of these names. There are probably too many people that don't know what they are doing.
@nontyp, make sure you have a plan you stick to it. I usually buy a little down 5% (yesterday), buy more down 10%, etc. You had really good timing, so count it as a win. Often I see people who stick to a view too long and end up staying in cash and chasing later.
There is a lot of money out there with no place to go and dips will be bought. We see that this morning. A lot of big ETFs will declare and go Ex dividend over the next 10days, so that might cause some volatility but also get people involved who want that dividend.
Edit addition: the increase in COVID cases is going to be a focus. The reopen/don't reopen we see in the news from the politicians is a false choice. People will self isolate if cases increase and certain local hospitals get overwhelmed.
@nontyp, make sure you have a plan you stick to it. I usually buy a little down 5% (yesterday), buy more down 10%, etc. You had really good timing, so count it as a win. Often I see people who stick to a view too long and end up staying in cash and chasing later.
There is a lot of money out there with no place to go and dips will be bought. We see that this morning. A lot of big ETFs will declare and go Ex dividend over the next 10days, so that might cause some volatility but also get people involved who want that dividend.
Edit addition: the increase in COVID cases is going to be a focus. The reopen/don't reopen we see in the news from the politicians is a false choice. People will self isolate if cases increase and certain local hospitals get overwhelmed.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I am thinking that what might do this rally in is starting sports up again. It will give some of the "new" traders something else to bet on.
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