Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

The only people that are going to make money on this move are the lawyers on both sides litigating every little step. This is noise more than substance - little will change either direction.

The thing that worries me is the section that could imply that the administration will overlook just about anything if the business can justify the action on an economic basis. Not sure that isn't already happening though after looking at some of the changes at EPA and AG office.

 

[VikingsGuy]

The thing that worries me is the section that could imply that the administration will overlook just about anything if the business can justify the action on an economic basis. Not sure that isn't already happening though after looking at some of the changes at EPA and AG office.

And then litigation will ensue.

 

[Sytes]

Red-Hot Nvidia Looks Set to Report Strong Earnings

Nvidia reports April-quarter financial results after the close of trading on Thursday, and expectations are growing for a strong quarter—and solid guidance.

www.barrons.com

This, imo, is typical koolAid. No way in heck would cloud/gaming call for a positive earnings and outlook... $410 from $355? They're high.

(Least I hope this is a bunch of hoopla...) If this turns to be a green machine, MU will ride its tail and add red to my play. Hopefully, this rides more along Morgan Stanley's analysis. $282.

 

[SAJ-99]

It's an example of *hope catching the ride upwards. This Executive Order is another catalyst for *hope.

If hope prevails, this is great for the longs. I'm short because I believe we're in for another drop as past recoveries have shown. *Hope is a very fragile egg to dance upon however, it's hard pressed to ignore the green North Shore wave many are riding.
THAT is my interest for my hobby swing trading. I am missing some green and think this Executive Order may propel this for today- Thursday w/ a pullback Friday and if drama does not blow it's lid over the weekend, this "Nobody knows the stock market like I do" Trump card order, this may propel for a green Monday-Tuesday... Then? I believe a correction will play it's evil hand... And I'll be back in the green.

Meanwhile, the China/U.S. battle is intensifying and that helps my puts, as mentioned above. I wish it would accelerate... Haha!

It makes me wonder though... From an Intra/swing trading perspective, I'm on the fence whether to play this for calls vs puts for the week. I'm thinking... it's a buy / call opportunity. Unless this fizzles out end of day...

I don't see anything that says the market cares much about this EO. The US/China battle is interesting. I don't expect it to get better until after the election. The political narrative on both sides is being formed and they can't switch it up as we get closer to the election.

I think a lot of what we see is people thinking things will return to normal. Even those unemployed people who are making more money with unemployment than they were working probably think they will easily be able to find a job after the unemployment ends. I am not sure that is the case. We see retailers like JC penny, Pier One, and Neiman Marcus, filing for bankruptcy and closing stores. Food companies like Specialty's and Garden Fresh are closing for good. Sur La Table and Hertz are on the edge. There will be more. And a lot of the small, independent places will go and we will never hear anything. Bigger will be better and the AMZN, MSFT, AAPL and the like will benefit. They will get bigger and the scale leads to efficiencies, which leads to more output per worker (and less workers). The only thing that might slow that is a Blue wave in November and the narrative of empowering employees gains a little momentum.

After 30yrs in the investment business, what I know is that we are terrible at modeling the future. Maybe it is human nature, but we tend to think the future will look like the past once we eliminate a specific variable. We don't see derivative impacts. I guess Economics is called the dismal science for a reason.

 

[Irrelevant]

What are the thoughts regarding the election how it may play into the covid response, and therefore the market?

 

[SAJ-99]

What are the thoughts regarding the election how it may play into the covid response, and therefore the market?

my $0.02. Opinions will vary, but it is an interesting thought process. I doubt it changes the COVID response much. By that time we will know if there is a rebound in cases. After all, 5 months is an eternity in this thing. We might have treatments or even vaccines that show solid efficacy. What I am sure of, and said this weeks ago, is that everything from this point forward will/should be viewed in a political perspective. We have been trained to do so and it is self-reinforcing mechanism. The market has already entered a stage where it is less shocked by any news. Things that would have been headline-grabbing 5 years ago are replaced within days. I'm not sure if that is because we are all inundated with news, we have become conditioned in our response to fit it into our personal narrative, or both.

It might be that the Senate races are as important as the Presidential race. The market might look at Democrats bringing anti-monopoly investigations, more regulations on big tech, labor-friendly laws, universal healthcare, etc. The market will react to polls on those important races, but I don't know how much emphasis we can put on polls. Regardless, if you are asking if things will change much, I doubt it. This experience is simply revealing the structural problems this economy had before that we overlooked because the broad economic measures seemed so good. Participation rate still too low, especially for those college-educated. Unemployment for those without some college was already close to 20% in April, versus 8% for those with. Heck, the avg hourly earnings jumped almost 4.5% in April from March because low-earners were the first to be cut. The skills gap exists and is only going to get wider.

 

[npaden]

What the heck has been going on so far in June!! I did a tiny little bit of profit taking yesterday and then today it is up again HUGE. My stocks that I acquired in Mid March are up 84%, 75%, 53%, 51%, 76%, 62% and 14%. Insanity.

We are rapidly approaching the point where I couldn't bring myself to buy because I thought everything was overpriced before any of the COVID stuff went down.

 

[noharleyyet]

Do we change the topic to "Anyone Selling"

 

[SAJ-99]

What the heck has been going on so far in June!! I did a tiny little bit of profit taking yesterday and then today it is up again HUGE. My stocks that I acquired in Mid March are up 84%, 75%, 53%, 51%, 76%, 62% and 14%. Insanity.

We are rapidly approaching the point where I couldn't bring myself to buy because I thought everything was overpriced before any of the COVID stuff went down.

Even more expensive now. It is starting to get ridiculous. I think all that Covid cash went into Robinhood accounts. Hard to believe that a 13% unemployment rate is an "all clear" signal.

 

[jabber]

Day before yesterday my 401 made it back into the green for the year for the first time since February. I have a couple of stocks that are hitting on 52 week and/or all time highs. Only problem is traffic is starting to get a little heavier on my commute to and from work.

 

[Sytes]

I'm bug eyed wondering how this event turned our great multi year run into a, giddy up! event!
It's flat out illogical... Haha! IMO, the fed has tampered with the integrity of the public market and basically broken the back of capitalistic intent.

 

[thusby]

 

[ignorethefringes]

I'm bug eyed wondering how this event turned our great multi year run into a, giddy up! event!
It's flat out illogical... Haha! IMO, the fed has tampered with the integrity of the public market and basically broken the back of capitalistic intent.

I think a lot of people are hoping to use the downturn to make money like others did in 2008. So they are buying early hoping to catch the upswing and it almost becomes self fulfilling. That is until others who really bought at the bottom start selling or there is a spike/(re)closures/etc.

 

[LopeHunter]

I think a lot of people are hoping to use the downturn to make money like others did in 2008. So they are buying early hoping to catch the upswing and it almost becomes self fulfilling. That is until others who really bought at the bottom start selling or there is a spike/(re)closures/etc.

Plan the work, work the plan. Am sitting on lots of cash as try to time the market. Would be historical if the market does not nosedive one or more times the rest of this year.

The market may not dive but the economy will. The focus seems to be on headcount going back to work. Well, a lot of that headcount is subsidized. Bankruptcies are gearing up. Sure, most of the jobs lost and will be lost again are not at the publicly traded companies. Those laid off workers do have reduced spending power once the federal subsidies dry up.

A lot of jobs are not coming back. Think about the restaurant sector. Eateries now have fewer tables so need fewer servers, for example. Bar sections are closed. Curbside does not drive booze profits. A lot of eateries are going to close because with less tables to turn during busy nights there is less revenue but the infrastructure cost for the kitchen and overhead does not fall much. Landlords will be hard pressed to keep that space leased at all and likely not at the current lease amount. That will drive property values down as rents fall and space is vacant.

Hotels and rental cars will take a long time with both business travel reduced and discretionary personal travel reduced. Airlines will take a long time to build up routes again as they try to keep the reduced number of fights.

Cities will see sales taxes fall, hotel taxes fall, property taxes fall. A lot of pain to come.

The stock market may be able to rise or hold these recent bounce back gains. The economy sure as heck has a big whoopin' coming as do millions of formerly working persons that will see subsidies ebb and end at some point late this year after the elections or at latest sometime next year.

Time will tell if the stock market is impacted by the economy sooner than later. Is certainly an interesting time to be alive.

 

[Sytes]

I'm merely pouting... Seeing the volume and volatility this past week(+) for a swing hobby trader and my hobby $ is stuck in the red clay mud...

October straight Puts... Broke my rule w/ hobby trading. I pinched myself vs a safe(r) straddle w/ less gold at the end of the rainbow. Haha! I'm feeling some sort of, "rainbow" various shades of red...

This market is out of tune. It has to correct... (Clicking heels) I merely wish I'd been playing my puts now, versus last week. Haha!

 

[Irrelevant]

I moved 1/3 of my money into something safer. this doesn't feel right where we are.

 

[SAJ-99]

Plan the work, work the plan. Am sitting on lots of cash as try to time the market. Would be historical if the market does not nosedive one or more times the rest of this year.

The market may not dive but the economy will. The focus seems to be on headcount going back to work. Well, a lot of that headcount is subsidized. Bankruptcies are gearing up. Sure, most of the jobs lost and will be lost again are not at the publicly traded companies. Those laid off workers do have reduced spending power once the federal subsidies dry up.

A lot of jobs are not coming back. Think about the restaurant sector. Eateries now have fewer tables so need fewer servers, for example. Bar sections are closed. Curbside does not drive booze profits. A lot of eateries are going to close because with less tables to turn during busy nights there is less revenue but the infrastructure cost for the kitchen and overhead does not fall much. Landlords will be hard pressed to keep that space leased at all and likely not at the current lease amount. That will drive property values down as rents fall and space is vacant.

Hotels and rental cars will take a long time with both business travel reduced and discretionary personal travel reduced. Airlines will take a long time to build up routes again as they try to keep the reduced number of fights.

Cities will see sales taxes fall, hotel taxes fall, property taxes fall. A lot of pain to come.

The stock market may be able to rise or hold these recent bounce back gains. The economy sure as heck has a big whoopin' coming as do millions of formerly working persons that will see subsidies ebb and end at some point late this year after the elections or at latest sometime next year.

Time will tell if the stock market is impacted by the economy sooner than later. Is certainly an interesting time to be alive.

Just to play Devils Advocate here, the market already knows all that. It is looking 6, 12, 18 months out. So far it has been right about the path of the virus, the pace of reopening, and the immediate effects of the the closure, stimulus, etc. Friday's jobs report said the market was not optimistic enough, if you can believe that. It might be wrong at some point, and I suspect it will overshoot in its optimism, but I have no idea what level that might be. It has been clear for many years that the market is not the economy, so I hesitate to tie the two together now. The country/economy has problems that aren't going to be fixed any time soon, but I'm not sure the market will care. Even if earnings take a hit, it will only result in overall valuations increasing. I doubt it will get investors to rush out of equities into investment grade bonds to earn 2%-3%.

 

[brymoore]

Friday’s job report had a major calculation error and was off by 3%.

The May jobs report had 'misclassification error' that made the unemployment rate look lower than it is. Here's what happened

When the U.S. government's official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a...

www.stamfordadvocate.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Friday’s job report had a major calculation error and was off by 3%.

The May jobs report had 'misclassification error' that made the unemployment rate look lower than it is. Here's what happened

When the U.S. government's official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a...

www.stamfordadvocate.com

It was still 3% better than expected 19%.

 

[nontyp]

I’m honestly considering selling most of my mutual fund holdings tomorrow and just sitting for a year or so until this thing inevitably bottoms out. this market spike makes zero sense and is just built on false optimism.