Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Sytes]

Simmered?? I don't know if i would say that

My comparison is related the volume/volatility 3+% to 9% +/- day to day activity.

The RSI is the main focus of the volatility"simmering" down. The market is still bouncing, as I mentioned;

Even still, 2% Dow/S&P moves are large for calm markets, we've not had our 9%+ / - days...

Example: DOW...



The DOW presents a medium/fairly steady bearing since 4/15, give or take ---> keeping in mind my quote above.

If we do not have a resurgence of COVID-19, this may be the, *bottom"... Of course ripple effect of businesses will be felt for a good while however the significant market blow may have made it's mark.
I really thought 18000 support mark would be tested again...

 

[SAJ-99]

FLIR news with GM buying a few hundred thermal imaging cameras got my attention today. Those would be needed in almost any type of reopening. Added with calls today.
Financials are not acting well, so I'm a little concerned. Last three days have selloffs into the close. Tomorrow being Friday, I would be cautious on adding.

 

[SAJ-99]

Simmered?? I don't know if i would say that. Last week was ugly, just as stupid as the gains the week before that. Q2 earnings and bankruptcies is what I am worried about causing an effect that will trigger others. I am still half in with Hertz, and that one is my biggest and only loser so far and best chance of going BK at this point. Right now I am in QQQ, SUN, BP, CLX, AMZN. OKE, RDS-A, MPC, BAC, MSFT Yes it is a lot of energy in there but like I always say, BIG oil is never going out of business, never has, never will. I would not say that about the small shale drillers though, I would not touch them. My biggest regret is not buying Sunoco when I first wanted. Could not buy in my 401k but played around and found I could in my IRA's but a couple weeks after I wanted to really buy in. That was would have been so sweet to buy near the bottom.

Energy and Tech. Quite the barbel strategy.

 

[jabber]

Simmered?? I don't know if i would say that. Last week was ugly, just as stupid as the gains the week before that. Q2 earnings and bankruptcies is what I am worried about causing an effect that will trigger others. I am still half in with Hertz, and that one is my biggest and only loser so far and best chance of going BK at this point. Right now I am in QQQ, SUN, BP, CLX, AMZN. OKE, RDS-A, MPC, BAC, MSFT Yes it is a lot of energy in there but like I always say, BIG oil is never going out of business, never has, never will. I would not say that about the small shale drillers though, I would not touch them. My biggest regret is not buying Sunoco when I first wanted. Could not buy in my 401k but played around and found I could in my IRA's but a couple weeks after I wanted to really buy in. That was would have been so sweet to buy near the bottom.

Did you give up on FNMA? I wish I would have

 

[LopeHunter]

Q2 earnings will be very ugly for a lot of blue chips that will have all 3 months impacted significantly unlike Q1. I am sure the Fed wants stocks to not crater from here as an election is approaching and not much good news with unemployment very high, bankruptcies high, loan defaults will climb for corporate and personal and municipal, China trade war concerns, colleges scrambling with likely freshman class size down and football revenue down, etc. Deaths over the next 12 months will stay in the news and may climb much higher than the various models thought just two weeks ago. A lot of pain in small and medium size businesses and several will fold which creates another cycle as suppliers get shafted on receivables. Seems impossible all those items are priced into the stock market so that leaves just a few possibilities of how to keep an asset price from falling. You can increase demand per "where else can you put your investment money to get a return" and/or the Fed can pour money into the system and/or foreign entities can buy stocks by the $$Billions if feel are on sale. I do know companies are not going to be buying back much of their stock the next few quarters so supply is not shrinking. Time will tell.

 

[BigHornRam]

Q2 earnings will be very ugly for a lot of blue chips that will have all 3 months impacted significantly unlike Q1. I am sure the Fed wants stocks to not crater from here as an election is approaching and not much good news with unemployment very high, bankruptcies high, loan defaults will climb for corporate and personal and municipal, China trade war concerns, colleges scrambling with likely freshman class size down and football revenue down, etc. Deaths over the next 12 months will stay in the news and may climb much higher than the various models thought just two weeks ago. A lot of pain in small and medium size businesses and several will fold which creates another cycle as suppliers get shafted on receivables. Seems impossible all those items are priced into the stock market so that leaves just a few possibilities of how to keep an asset price from falling. You can increase demand per "where else can you put your investment money to get a return" and/or the Fed can pour money into the system and/or foreign entities can buy stocks by the $$Billions if feel are on sale. I do know companies are not going to be buying back much of their stock the next few quarters so supply is not shrinking. Time will tell.

Comments like this may make some people consider gold.

The stock market may get cut in half, but this ‘most undervalued’ asset is about to surge, billionaire investor says

Paul Singer, the hedge-fund billionaire behind Elliot Management, warned last month that the ultimate path of global stock markets is a drop of at least 50%...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[schmalts]

Did you give up on FNMA? I wish I would have

Long time ago.

 

[npaden]

One of those deals where hindsight is great but my DXCM purchase looks pretty good after today. Only negative is that I wish I had bought more shares. I've been in and out of this stock quite a few times and have some really decent realized gains from prior years on it. At one point I had quite a few shares with a cost basis of $9 per share. I lost it to a covered call last year at $130 and never could get the trigger pulled on buying back in until the downturn and bought back in at $205.

I'm a loser on AAL still. Purchased 3 times and all are in the red. I've also bought twice on CCL and am in the green on the largest purchase but in the red on the other. I am deeply in the red on my long term holding of it. I'm up a bit on GM and down a bit on WFC. HD, MCD and HFC have all done pretty well. My other loser is MFC, it is more of a flyer and not a lot of $ in it but I didn't get on it in time and it seems to have figured out a new place to live a little below what I bought it at. Some folks made a killing on it but I didn't get on it in time.

Overall I've done pretty well, I didn't hit the absolute bottom, but my green stocks outnumber my red ones by a pretty good margin.

 

[schmalts]

Comments like this may make some people consider gold.

The stock market may get cut in half, but this ‘most undervalued’ asset is about to surge, billionaire investor says

Paul Singer, the hedge-fund billionaire behind Elliot Management, warned last month that the ultimate path of global stock markets is a drop of at least 50%...

www.marketwatch.com

Every marketwatch news article is doom and gloom or the future is rosey. It all depends on if the person writing it is in cash or stocks at the moment. It's all about manipulation, no different than the fed. How many more life lines they got?

 

[BigHornRam]

Every marketwatch news article is doom and gloom or the future is rosey. It all depends on if the person writing it is in cash or stocks at the moment. It's all about manipulation, no different than the fed. How many more life lines they got?

As long as I get manipulated by the people that are right, everything is good!

 

[Sytes]

Stock market KoolAid. Pick the media to fit your interest and thy cup runneth over.

not speaking specific to the gold piece. Speaking in general.

 

[BigHornRam]

Stock market KoolAid. Pick the media to fit your interest and thy cup runneth over.

not speaking specific to the gold piece. Speaking in general.

Day drinking and darts is a better strategy IMO.

 

[Sytes]

Flipping a short/put or long/call silver dollar is my strategy... Maybe I should try drinking again. My crystal *bowling ball isn't speaking to me.

 

[Bigjay73]

I wish I understood half of what y'all are talking about

 

[Sytes]

Monday?



The pandemonium has fizzled... for now. Seems the market's riding on a cycle named, "Hope". This is acting as though GDP, inventory, earnings, unemployment, etc are all favorable.

I can not see this rolling green through aftermarket. Hobby skilled guru speaking of course. Haha!
If Monday continues green...

 

[bcar]

Seems the market's riding on a cycle named, "Hope".

Yeah it seems like all economics were thrown out the door weeks ago.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Monday?

View attachment 139483

The pandemonium has fizzled... for now. Seems the market's riding on a cycle named, "Hope". This is acting as though GDP, inventory, earnings, unemployment, etc are all favorable.

I can not see this rolling green through aftermarket. Hobby skilled guru speaking of course. Haha!
If Monday continues green...

I'm thinking I'll be doing some selling by the end of the day here to lock in some green. If I miss a jump on Monday, oh well. If reality hits over the weekend then at least I'm safe.

On another note, from a totally inexperienced, just having fun, idiot such as myself, I'm having fun shorting some of these little pharma stocks that jump 100% on any good news. A few times it's been a nice, quick, 10% gain over a day or two. Shorted PGTX earlier today at $16.38/share. Currently positive 12% and I'll probably dump it be the end of the day.

 

[brymoore]

It’s different this time, right? The market has priced in all of the CV19 concern! Fundamental economics no longer matter - 20% unemployment, bankruptcies, or six trillion in new federal debt.

 

[SAJ-99]

It’s different this time, right? The market has priced in all of the CV19 concern! Fundamental economics no longer matter - 20% unemployment, bankruptcies, or six trillion in new federal debt.

Humans are optimistic by nature and markets reflect all our internal biases. All participants know the bad news. Markets price that in before we even see it. Now we see the opposite. There is little more that can surprise us - except for the reimplementation of tariffs.

 

[Sytes]

Pretty good read...

The stock market keeps rising while earnings keep falling what if stocks are right - MarketWatch

There’s a debate on Wall Street over whether stock market investors know something that the rest of America doesn’t when it comes to what a post-COVID-19 pandemic future looks like. What if the bulls are right?

www.marketwatch.com

Whatever the recovery looks like, its seems most believe the recovery will take time, more time than what stock market investors seem to be betting on.