Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[jryoung]

Saw Josh Hawley ranting about this today. I never thought I would agree with Josh Hawley on anything, so I am comforted there are still things we can agree on. Of course it will never get done.

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/10/g-s1-8989/bipartisan-stock-trading-ban

The good news is that you don't need to subscribe. There is website that tracks it all. Pelosi gets all the headlines, but there are a lot of crazy stuff in the data.

Track US politician stock trades

Track US politician trades for free with Capitol Trades. Discover which Stocks/Assets/Companies/Issuers politicians are buying or selling.

www.capitoltrades.com

They just need to mirror the independence requirements of any partner in a Big 4 firm.

 

[SD_Prairie_Goat]

SNOW is my AI play that is my most hopeful- but currently my bigs lagger. Got lucky out of the gate and took profits but got back in at the wrong time. Anyone else watching it?

Been riding snow for far too long. I was stupid and bought at the worst time. I'm still under water a couple years later. But maybe one day I'll stay making money

 

[cgasner1]

Saw Josh Hawley ranting about this today. I never thought I would agree with Josh Hawley on anything, so I am comforted there are still things we can agree on. Of course it will never get done.

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/10/g-s1-8989/bipartisan-stock-trading-ban

The good news is that you don't need to subscribe. There is website that tracks it all. Pelosi gets all the headlines, but there are a lot of crazy stuff in the data.

Track US politician stock trades

Track US politician trades for free with Capitol Trades. Discover which Stocks/Assets/Companies/Issuers politicians are buying or selling.

www.capitoltrades.com

This sure makes a guy think the top is about in and they all wanna sell out before it drops and have it look like wow we all got real lucky on that one

 

[Flatrock]

How about the federal reserve? It's all about political spin . This CNN piece cracks me up!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/10/business/economy-inflation-jobs-fed/index.html

I don't think the Fed wants anything to do with politics. I really don't.

That article cracks you up? How? That's a pretty mundane article.

 

[Rie Bread]

Been riding snow for far too long. I was stupid and bought at the worst time. I'm still under water a couple years later. But maybe one day I'll stay making money

Iv been buying here a there and helping my average but I too feel like im dreaming. Defiantly sad Slootman exited

 

[SD_Prairie_Goat]

Iv been buying here a there and helping my average but I too feel like im dreaming. Defiantly sad Slootman exited

I was almost making money before his exit

It's ok, my stock picks have about a 50% success rate, so my etf's are the only reason I ever make money. That's just until my Gevo goes off when they finally build the SD jet fuel plant....

 

[BigHornRam]

That article cracks you up? How? That's a pretty mundane article.

Starts out with with this canned drama.

"New York
CNN
—
The biggest danger facing the American economy for years has been inflation.

Now, another problem is emerging as a credible threat on the horizon: Unemployment."

The rest of the article is "please federal reserve give us a rate cut in September, pretty please with sugar on top".

 

[BigHornRam]

Iv been buying here a there and helping my average but I too feel like im dreaming. Defiantly sad Slootman exited

Had to look this one up. These tech stock names are a RIOT! The market sounds more like Vegas than Wall Street these days IMO.

Snowflake Stock: A Sleeping Giant Ready to Erupt with 30% Gains

Snowflake stock will only trade at a deep discount for so long, as Snowflake will certainly survive its current reputational issues.

investorplace.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Starts out with with this canned drama.

"New York
CNN
—
The biggest danger facing the American economy for years has been inflation.

Now, another problem is emerging as a credible threat on the horizon: Unemployment."

The rest of the article is "please federal reserve give us a rate cut in September, pretty please with sugar on top".

Hyperbolic headlines are the name of the game. Here is a picture of Fox Business website. You will see the article link itself is pretty benign. The headline writer makes sure to sprinkle some loathing in there to tell the reader they are "struggling" and prices are still "soaring", when they actually declined month over month. CNN is just as bad. It annoys me because the news sources tell people what they should "believe". This has been discussed on other threads. It's not just political, it is everything. The need to "shock" to get people to click on something is getting terrible.
Anytime data is released I just go straight to the numbers, but most people won't do that, especially if they get news on a phone. Algo's had market jump 25pts on headline then immediately gave 20 of them back when the report is more thoroughly analyzed.

Inflation unexpectedly falls to 3% in June

The Labor Department on Thursday released the closely watched June consumer price index report, revealing just how hot inflation was running last month.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[BigHornRam]

Hyperbolic headlines are the name of the game. Here is a picture of Fox Business website. You will see the article link itself is pretty benign. The headline writer makes sure to sprinkle some loathing in there to tell the reader they are "struggling" and prices are still "soaring", when they actually declined month over month. CNN is just as bad. It annoys me because the news sources tell people what they should "believe". This has been discussed on other threads. It's not just political, it is everything. The need to "shock" to get people to click on something is getting terrible.
Anytime data is released I just go straight to the numbers, but most people won't do that, especially if they get news on a phone. Algo's had market jump 25pts on headline then immediately gave 20 of them back when the report is more thoroughly analyzed.
View attachment 332456

Inflation unexpectedly falls to 3% in June

The Labor Department on Thursday released the closely watched June consumer price index report, revealing just how hot inflation was running last month.

www.foxbusiness.com

Media likes to lie and spin. Rate cut in September or no rate cut?

 

[SAJ-99]

Media likes to lie and spin. Rate cut in September or no rate cut?

Cut. Two more CPI reports between now and then, and those might be iffy given this report was driven by energy prices. The Fed wants more than anything to normalize the curve and get rid of the inversion. The tricky part is lowering the short term rates and keeping the 10yr yield pinned in a range around 4%. The bond market will drive that. This morning the 1yr yield dropped 9bps and the 10yr dropped 10bps, so getting back to "normal" is going to be tough. I'm not sure it will have much impact on the housing market or food prices or anything else. So there will be plenty of ammo for politicians.

 

[Bonasababy]

The feds coming cuts and inflation news making anyone else more interested in small caps?

I moved more out of tech heavy mostly large cap funds into them today. Will see if that was mistake in the coming months.

 

[SD_Prairie_Goat]

The feds coming cuts and inflation news making anyone else more interested in small caps?

I moved more out of tech heavy mostly large cap funds into them today. Will see if that was mistake in the coming months.

Been playing small caps for a long time now. Really been left behind but I can't shake the feeling their drastically under valued right now.

But that being said all my large cap funds are doing significantly better but maybe VIOO is going to pop

 

[SAJ-99]

More and more I view small caps as a tactical positioning trade and less a long term holding. SC should definitely benefit from lower rates, but so many are just bad companies. That makes me lean towards IJR because it holds those that make money, but I tend to throw new money into the Mid caps (IJH and IWP). It would be nice to see the gains broaden out more. Interesting to see emerging markets get a bid on dollar weakening. We will see is this is a head fake. It is getting hard to trust this market for anything.

 

[Flatrock]

Starts out with with this canned drama.

"New York
CNN
—
The biggest danger facing the American economy for years has been inflation.

Now, another problem is emerging as a credible threat on the horizon: Unemployment."

The rest of the article is "please federal reserve give us a rate cut in September, pretty please with sugar on top".

That's drama? Come on Bighorn. That's nothing.

 

[Bonasababy]

More and more I view small caps as a tactical positioning trade and less a long term holding. SC should definitely benefit from lower rates, but so many are just bad companies. That makes me lean towards IJR because it holds those that make money, but I tend to throw new money into the Mid caps (IJH and IWP). It would be nice to see the gains broaden out more. Interesting to see emerging markets get a bid on dollar weakening. We will see is this is a head fake. It is getting hard to trust this market for anything.

My SC's are broad funds with low fees, selected ones that were more value oriented or did ok in 22 when most SC's lost money.

 

[Rie Bread]

I was almost making money before his exit

It's ok, my stock picks have about a 50% success rate, so my etf's are the only reason I ever make money. That's just until my Gevo goes off when they finally build the SD jet fuel plant....

I have 80% of my stock picks as reliable companies that have dividends( dividend reinvest), the other 20% is for more risky prospects. I’m holding for the long SNOW for the term, in the mean time the other big AI names are a good back up to make up for it

 

[Sytes]

Been playing small caps for a long time now. Really been left behind but I can't shake the feeling their drastically under valued right now.

But that being said all my large cap funds are doing significantly better but maybe VIOO is going to pop

I've had the opposite for Small Caps via my TSP though I tend to agree with SAJ, Bonas, and you for future small caps potential...

 

[SD_Prairie_Goat]

I have 80% of my stock picks as reliable companies that have dividends( dividend reinvest), the other 20% is for more risky prospects. I’m holding for the long SNOW for the term, in the mean time the other big AI names are a good back up to make up for it

I tend to do more like
60% spread out ETFS
20% pretty solid stocks or dividend plays
20% fools bets in companies I like what they're doing. This is the one that bites me in the butt but if they take off I might be retiring early! Alright probably not that good, but maybe a nice vacation.

I've had the opposite for Small Caps via my TSP though I tend to agree with SAJ, Bonas, and you for future small caps potential...

View attachment 332553

I bet on VIOO for the most part and it's just doing meh. I know P/E isn't everything but I can't shake that there's massive room to grow from 6.5P/E.

As a side note, this is just play money. Actual retirement accounts are much broader with large, mid, and small roughly equally weighted to reduce risk. But those are boring to talk about compared with the fun money account!

 

[ignorethefringes]

I'm running an informal research project on who to vote for in November. Selling my vote to the best performer if you will. Purchased equal amounts, in terms of dollar amount, the same day.

Right now it's leaning one way . . .



Jokes people.