Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Flatrock]

Nothing. They might want to stop looking at their statements for the next 6 months. Everything is expensive and Summers are boring. Dangerous market, but not much a person can or should do.

I agree 100% on doing nothing. I thought your post was implying that a person should sell or do something. Nearly every time I've tried to be cute and sell at a time like this and buy back in has rarely worked for me. I'm sure others can do it successfully but I can't.

 

[Flatrock]

Meanwhile, for the investor not chasing risky stocks and investing in a portfolio of funds or ETFs with low fees--its been a very good year!

You can't expect to do well timing the market on stocks and taking your cash out of the market.

SP 500 is up nearly 17 percent for the year.

NASDAQ is up just shy of 22 percent for the year.

Yea it's been a great year so far. It can go flat the next 6 months and that would still be just fine. If you live in the leveraged ETF world, those have really had a banner year.

Double down investing in the S&P when it finally starts to tank for a bit. It will pay off eventually.
From when this thread was started to today, the S&P has yielded a total return of 77%. Therefore, for every 100K invested back then, you’d have $177K today for an annualized return over that period of 14%.
Maybe I’m just a dummy, but I don’t over think it, I just keep investing in funds like VOO or FXAIX consistently and double down my investments when we have strong pullbacks.

Completely agree. Learning to just sit on my hands and do little to nothing has been the best thing I've ever done.

 

[Bonasababy]

I generally agree, but not sure what you mean by "tilting". It didn't seem to have a bias. The market right now is watching polls on Congress and President races. What matters to Wall Street is taxes.

More than that. I am hearing a lot of concern about the extensive tariffs one of the POTUS candidates is talking about implementing. 10% on everything coming into the country with a special 60% tariff reserved for his favorite foil China. Plus immediate deportation of many of the folks who tend and pick our food. In my state the ag folks are extremely worried. They were hurt bad after his tarriffs when he was POTUS. More inflation and tariff retaliation is predicted so our exports would be impacted too.

 

[Bonasababy]

I agree 100% on doing nothing. I thought your post was implying that a person should sell or do something. Nearly every time I've tried to be cute and sell at a time like this and buy back in has rarely worked for me. I'm sure others can do it successfully but I can't.

Not a fan of doing nothing, occasional rebalancing is wise. It's been hard to shove more to the bond side but things are looking better there and any individual or fund investment heavy to tech might be a bit more volatile than you'd want to keep unless your return timeline is long.

It's hard to avoid tech in the index funds but with active managed funds you can look at some of them that have made a lot of money recently and back some of that money into things less tech heavy. If you plan to hold for years though I'd be inclined to just rebalance towards your targets and not worry about composition.

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree 100% on doing nothing. I thought your post was implying that a person should sell or do something. Nearly every time I've tried to be cute and sell at a time like this and buy back in has rarely worked for me. I'm sure others can do it successfully but I can't.

Nothing I say is financial advice for anyone and I don't ever try to 'imply' anything. This is a fun thread that we debate a lot of market stuff. I will say that for people that do make tactical/strategic moves in asset class weightings and think they have a lot of equity exposure, technicals say now is a good time to reduce that and rebalance to bonds.

 

[SAJ-99]

More than that. I am hearing a lot of concern about the extensive tariffs one of the POTUS candidates is talking about implementing. 10% on everything coming into the country with a special 60% tariff reserved for his favorite foil China. Plus immediate deportation of many of the folks who tend and pick our food. In my state the ag folks are extremely worried. They were hurt bad after his tarriffs when he was POTUS. More inflation and tariff retaliation is predicted so our exports would be impacted too.

They should be worried, but it is the political season for bad ideas. The market doesn't seem to be worried that it actually happens though. VIX is at its lowest level ever for this point in an election year. I can't explain it other than it looks like everyone is selling vol on pre election expiries and buying puts on the Nov and Dec contracts. Logical, I guess? Pretty heavy skew to the put side in those 2 months. If we get an unexpected surprise between now and then and this market has a problem. Everyone is on the same side of the boat.

 

[Rie Bread]

I finally did in 3 of 4 accounts so it's house money time.

Cruise control baby! Congratulations
Did you take the family out to dinner or as Cramer says buy a cashmere sweater?

Looking over my account I’m already near another sell trigger lol.

 

[Flatrock]

They should be worried, but it is the political season for bad ideas. The market doesn't seem to be worried that it actually happens though. VIX is at its lowest level ever for this point in an election year. I can't explain it other than it looks like everyone is selling vol on pre election expiries and buying puts on the Nov and Dec contracts. Logical, I guess? Pretty heavy skew to the put side in those 2 months. If we get an unexpected surprise between now and then and this market has a problem. Everyone is on the same side of the boat.

No it shouldn't. For now, add potential tariffs to the list of things that don't matter. Maybe in 2025 it's an issue but damn let's at least see what happens with the election. And even if tariffs get implemented, it might not be that big of a deal. Maybe it's a nothing burger. It's very hard to say what happens and what the outcome is.

I agree though that a pullback is fully possible and probable. It's been a hell of a big run off the October low of last year and we are entering a seasonably weak time. A 5-15% pullback would just be normal.

 

[SAJ-99]

No it shouldn't. For now, add potential tariffs to the list of things that don't matter. Maybe in 2025 it's an issue but damn let's at least see what happens with the election. And even if tariffs get implemented, it might not be that big of a deal. Maybe it's a nothing burger. It's very hard to say what happens and what the outcome is.

I agree though that a pullback is fully possible and probable. It's been a hell of a big run off the October low of last year and we are entering a seasonably weak time. A 5-15% pullback would just be normal.

My point, and it certainly wasn't made clear, was that China now buys more corn from Brazil than the US. Let that sink in, and then add tariffs on Chinese goods which would be immediately answered with retaliatory tariffs by China. Farmers should be worried. They are the pawn in this game.

 

[ismith]

My point, and it certainly wasn't made clear, was that China now buys more corn from Brazil than the US. Let that sink in, and then add tariffs on Chinese goods which would be immediately answered with retaliatory tariffs by China. Farmers should be worried. They are the pawn in this game.

Are we, or will we soon be, at war with China?

 

[Farz-U-Know]

If any of you guys are into Crypto now is a pretty good dip buy time. Fully expect to see the market take off in September.

 

[SAJ-99]

Are we, or will we soon be, at war with China?

No. I’m not sure what you would call it, but ‘war’ seems extreme. I think we are at a point both countries would like to lessen reliance on each other. US is diversifying supply chains, China is trying to get off USD reserve system and find other trading partners. Neither are particularly easy to do. What happens after that is the scary part.

 

[BigHornRam]

Blinken is a disaster. China, Russia, and Iran see nothing but weakness. Yellen is a disaster. World knows it, and that is not good.

 

[SAJ-99]

Blinken is a disaster. China, Russia, and Iran see nothing but weakness. Yellen is a disaster. World knows it, and that is not good.

Please go for a hike. I enjoy this thread. It made it through one election. Let's not get political and see if it can last through another.

 

[antelopedundee]

My point, and it certainly wasn't made clear, was that China now buys more corn from Brazil than the US. Let that sink in, and then add tariffs on Chinese goods which would be immediately answered with retaliatory tariffs by China. Farmers should be worried. They are the pawn in this game.

China is stockpiling grains and other food sources.

 

[Bonasababy]

No it shouldn't. For now, add potential tariffs to the list of things that don't matter. Maybe in 2025 it's an issue but damn let's at least see what happens with the election. And even if tariffs get implemented, it might not be that big of a deal. Maybe it's a nothing burger. It's very hard to say what happens and what the outcome is.

I agree though that a pullback is fully possible and probable. It's been a hell of a big run off the October low of last year and we are entering a seasonably weak time. A 5-15% pullback would just be normal.

You do realize that markets price in concerns or positive hopes well before they happen? The nice run of late is fueled part due to improving conditions and the expectation the Fed will cut rates months from now...

Tarrifs are just like anything else. The cost gets passed on. Like it or not the US is part of a world economy--we do not make enough of everything we need and can't ramp up to do so. Don't forget what happened during Covid. Things many thought we didn't depend on the availability of foreign imports sure did depend on them!

The immediate impact on food cost and the ag industry will be huge. Last time he did that he gave ag folks a bunch of added welfare payments to help ease their pain--adding to the federal debt.

 

[antelopedundee]

No it shouldn't. For now, add potential tariffs to the list of things that don't matter. Maybe in 2025 it's an issue but damn let's at least see what happens with the election. And even if tariffs get implemented, it might not be that big of a deal. Maybe it's a nothing burger. It's very hard to say what happens and what the outcome is.

I agree though that a pullback is fully possible and probable. It's been a hell of a big run off the October low of last year and we are entering a seasonably weak time. A 5-15% pullback would just be normal.

I might dump most of my remaining NVDA if it hits $150 and be pist if it doesn't pull back enough to buy back in. A certain person [if elected] might just say that they can't sell any chips to China so it could take a big dive down.

 

[antelopedundee]

You do realize that markets price in concerns or positive hopes well before they happen? The nice run of late is fueled part due to improving conditions and the expectation the Fed will cut rates months from now...

Tarrifs are just like anything else. The cost gets passed on. Like it or not the US is part of a world economy--we do not make enough of everything we need and can't ramp up to do so. Don't forget what happened during Covid. Things many thought we didn't depend on the availability of foreign imports sure did depend on them!

The immediate impact on food cost and the ag industry will be huge. Last time he did that he gave ag folks a bunch of added welfare payments to help ease their pain--adding to the federal debt.

Will the revenue from tariffs replace any more tax cuts?

 

[noharleyyet]

We are completely conditioned to rate and rationalize policy by which party is pushing it.

Please go for a hike. I enjoy this thread. It made it through one election. Let's not get political and see if it can last through another.

How do we even begin to separate politics from the market?

 

[Rie Bread]

We are completely conditioned to rate and rationalize policy by which party is pushing it.

How do we even begin to separate politics from the market?

There’s money to be made in the market no matter what flavor of cool aid