Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Sytes]

The Cabal frothing or bumbling media content?

Regardless, good to know ETF wise to eval re-allocating portfolios to soften % in one sector, increase within another:

Hedge Funds Sell Tech Stocks ‘Aggressively,’ Goldman Says

(Bloomberg) -- In a month when Nvidia Corp. briefly became the world’s largest company, hedge funds were “aggressively” selling tech stocks, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Most Read from BloombergSupreme Court Poised to Allow Emergency Abortions in IdahoSpaceX Tender Offer...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[406dn]

I don't follow this thread often, but here I am today.

I've been retired for a few months more than eleven years. For a variety of reasons, I eschewed using a financial advisor. Their high fees are a big reason. Compared to most retirees, I've been heavily invested in individual stocks for the entirety of my retirement. I keep enough liquidity, to avoid getting boxed in for day to day expenses.

The goal when I retired was to have the nest egg last our lifetimes and provide the same standard of living we enjoyed while working. Presently, I'd have to seriously phuck it up, or WIII blows us all up, not to meet that goal. There is a large probability that the money will outlast us significantly.

Everyone has to make choices they can live with. Some share of how we fare in retirement is the luck of the draw, as to when you retire. I caught a wave and rode it. Friends from work who retired a few years before me weathered a serious downturn. A few of them ended up having to take some part time work.

One friend, who used a financial advisor, suffered large losses in the market. He called his advisor and ordered him to sell everything and purchase an annuity. The advisor tried to convince him to hang tough, but he wasn't having it. So, he ended up with an annuity that was 33% smaller than the one he could have taken as a retirement option from the company. I blame him and his advisor. He is one of the more anxious people you are likely to meet, and the market's volatility was a poor match for him. A good advisor should have picked up on it, and he should have told the advisor that, as well.

No one gets it right, every time. It is not certain, but the more time you are in the market, the more likely you will be rewarded for your investments.

 

[BigHornRam]

Harsh analysis here.

Trump's Debate Win Lifts Futures Amid Biden Exit Talk

Biden's odds of claiming the Democratic nomination dived on prediction markets.

www.investors.com

I like my steak medium rare, @406dn

 

[antelopedundee]

Have you taken your cost base out?

I finally did in 3 of 4 accounts so it's house money time.

 

[SAJ-99]

This market looks more exhausted than Joe Biden at a debate.

 

[Sytes]

Presidents and Their Impact on the Stock Market

While administration policies and appointments can somewhat influence the economy, the president's ability to impact markets is generally indirect and marginal.

www.investopedia.com

Interesting method of titling the article though good read otherwise. Maybe bad read for others... Nature of internet forums.

 

[Sytes]

Haha! When big $ boys get into a wizzing match!

Elon Musk vows Bill Gates will be ‘obliterated’ if he doesn’t stop shorting Tesla

If the Optimus robot somehow catapults Tesla to Musk’s $30 trillion market cap target, bears like the Microsoft cofounder could be wiped out—but that is a big if.

fortune.com

The duo’s rivalry became public after an exchange leaked in 2022 showing the world’s wealthiest entrepreneur had refused to support Gates’ charitable work upon learning the latter still had a half billion dollars riding on a wager the Tesla stock price would fall.

Musk’s warning that shorts will be “obliterated” is, however, a bold claim for someone whose company had been the worst-performing name in the S&P 500 this year.

 

[SAJ-99]

Presidents and Their Impact on the Stock Market

While administration policies and appointments can somewhat influence the economy, the president's ability to impact markets is generally indirect and marginal.

www.investopedia.com

Interesting method of titling the article though good read otherwise. Maybe bad read for others... Nature of internet forums.

I generally agree, but not sure what you mean by "tilting". It didn't seem to have a bias. The market right now is watching polls on Congress and President races. What matters to Wall Street is taxes.

 

[Sytes]

Titling. Not tilting. They look close to the same at first glance.

 

[Sytes]

Morgan Stanley:

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says a 10% Stock Market Correction Is ‘Highly Likely’

(Bloomberg) -- Traders should brace for a significant pullback in the stock market as uncertainty swirls around the US presidential campaign, corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.Most Read from BloombergMicrosoft Orders China Staff to Use...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Flatrock]

This market looks more exhausted than Joe Biden at a debate.

Yea probably. But what should a person do about it? Buy some downside puts? Rotate some into cash or bonds? Buy some calls on the vix?

 

[Flatrock]

Morgan Stanley:

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says a 10% Stock Market Correction Is ‘Highly Likely’

(Bloomberg) -- Traders should brace for a significant pullback in the stock market as uncertainty swirls around the US presidential campaign, corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.Most Read from BloombergMicrosoft Orders China Staff to Use...

finance.yahoo.com

That a good or bad thing?

 

[stealthy_bowman]

Yea probably. But what should a person do about it? Buy some downside puts? Rotate some into cash or bonds? Buy some calls on the vix?

Double down investing in the S&P when it finally starts to tank for a bit. It will pay off eventually.
From when this thread was started to today, the S&P has yielded a total return of 77%. Therefore, for every 100K invested back then, you’d have $177K today for an annualized return over that period of 14%.
Maybe I’m just a dummy, but I don’t over think it, I just keep investing in funds like VOO or FXAIX consistently and double down my investments when we have strong pullbacks.

 

[Sytes]

That a good or bad thing?

In my hobby opinion, not much unless the potential 10% gains breaks past rates getting cut. I don't even see 10% though I'm more bullish than bear.

Apparently there's some focus on earnings soon to release.

As he shared:

"In this sense, Wilson thinks investors shouldn’t be particularly concerned about a pullback from these levels. Rather, he said it could create opportunities to buy into the market. For now, he suggests focusing on individual stocks rather than indexes.

Wilson and his team continue to recommend high-quality growth names, and quality in general: large-caps, companies with good balance sheets, and those that can deliver on earnings. Momentum will continue, but the problem is it’s hard to find shares in those categories that are cheap, he said."

 

[Bonasababy]

Meanwhile, for the investor not chasing risky stocks and investing in a portfolio of funds or ETFs with low fees--its been a very good year!

You can't expect to do well timing the market on stocks and taking your cash out of the market.

SP 500 is up nearly 17 percent for the year.

NASDAQ is up just shy of 22 percent for the year.

 

[Sytes]

For the short term, day/swing traders, volatility is King. A 10% possibility sounds the cha-ching alert for a few (or many) Strangle options.
I believe a two/three month expiration might hold potential value. Market happy w/ upcoming earnings and fed brake cuts then we'll see a nice positive.
If it happens to play into the beginning of a 10% potential drop it promotes advantage for the other side.
Stagnant stocks or the resistance and the support are not tampered with, lose the volatility desired.
Mid to long-term 10% is just a little dip.
In my hobbyist opinion.

 

[SAJ-99]

Yea probably. But what should a person do about it? Buy some downside puts? Rotate some into cash or bonds? Buy some calls on the vix?

Nothing. They might want to stop looking at their statements for the next 6 months. Everything is expensive and Summers are boring. Dangerous market, but not much a person can or should do.

 

[LopeHunter]

Nothing. They might want to stop looking at their statements for the next 6 months. Everything is expensive and Summers are boring. Dangerous market, but not much a person can or should do.

I have watched prognosticators predict market pullbacks for years. They always spin a good yarn re bloated P/E ratios for the tech sector or broad market, or inverted bond yields, rising oil prices fueling inflationary pressures, etc.

I yawn.

I have attempted to play the casino game known as market timing twice: 9/11 and Covid. I did quite well both times yet I was attempting to time the emotions of unsophisticated retirement account holders which were not active traders but panicked as the sudden stock market “free fall” made the evening news plus again when weeks later the next quarterly statements arrived showing a fall in account balance following those two events.

Volatility which seems to be fueled by panic is too tempting for me to not try to time with trades. The other 190 weeks of the past 220 since 9/11 were a strategy of simply to buy low-fee broad indexes and hold. I am not luckier than average. I am not smarter than Wall Street traders. God does not whisper stock tips into my ear. I have no reason to think I can predict the overall market nor to trust the most recent prognostication by an “expert” who has nothing to lose if is wildly wrong and can slip back into the shadows as the next “expert” parachutes down proclaiming they are all-knowing. Eventually, one of these fame-seekers will get it right then get a movie made like The Big Short though they rarely are correct on the very next big proclamation.

 

[SAJ-99]

Morgan Stanley:

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says a 10% Stock Market Correction Is ‘Highly Likely’

(Bloomberg) -- Traders should brace for a significant pullback in the stock market as uncertainty swirls around the US presidential campaign, corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.Most Read from BloombergMicrosoft Orders China Staff to Use...

finance.yahoo.com

Wilson does solid work, but has been wrong for while now (which he admits to). I think a pull back would be healthy. Some of the technical indicators are very stretched and the fundmentals are a bit too optimistic. For example, 2025 earnings are showing 15% growth from 2024 and that assumes 2024 hits its forecasted record. That growth would be double the long term average rate. The 2025 estimate clearly has to come down given the economy doesn't seem to be hot enough to generate those kind of earnings. But that doesn't mean people won't keep justifying paying more for them.

 

[Bonasababy]

Nothing. They might want to stop looking at their statements for the next 6 months. Everything is expensive and Summers are boring. Dangerous market, but not much a person can or should do.

CD rates are and probably will continue to ease down, but as of now are still over 5 percent all the way out to 10 years with fidelity. 3 month is 5.35.