900-20 Elk

[indiana50]

Please correct if/ where I am wrong.

I bought a "bonus point" last summer. And I elected for another in this years app. = 2

The other member of my party did not have one from last year but got one at application time.

(2+1)/2=1.5 round up to 2 bonus points ???

We put in for 900-20 elk permit.

Looking at Montana's permit statistics from 2017, NR applicants with 2 bonus points had a 59.79% chance of drawing.

I am slowly but surely learning the system and just wanted to see if I have all this correct. (and I am anxious as can be for April 20)

 

[8andcounting]

You will have 1 , and him 0 so together you'll have .5 . When u buy a bonus point at time of app that Does not go towards this years draw , it goes towards next years .

 

[8andcounting]

Pref point for the NR combo tags are put towards this years when bought at app time but bonus points are awarded towards next year . So hate to tell u but u have 1 point and him none

 

[indiana50]

Bummer. Thanks for the response, you have to be getting tired of my questions 8.

So we will have 1? So 42.66% chance based on last year.

 

[MThuntr]

Yes I think you round up.

Odds are probably lower due to recent publicity

 

[teej89]

worst case you get the general tag, still lots of great elk hunting to be had on the general tag!

 

[indiana50]

I elected to get partial refund and just get a deer tag. Which I am starting to regret...

Oh well, there is always a try at a b tag and a goat.

My partner is quite possibly the luckiest guy on the face of the earth so who knows!

 

[Khunter]

So we will have 1? So 42.66% chance based on last year.

how do you get 42.66%. i see odds in low 30 percent range with 351 nonres tags drawn from 1052 first choice apps? I have one BP too going into draw so would like to understand the statistics.

 

[8andcounting]

It was 33% overall for NR . But with 1 point % was probably better than that . Good luck

 

[Camdu7]

Look at the detailed draw odds spread sheet on MTFWP website. It shows last years odds per point level. While it really doesn't reflect true odds it shows how many applied and drew with each point level.

 

[indiana50]

how do you get 42.66%. i see odds in low 30 percent range with 351 nonres tags drawn from 1052 first choice apps? I have one BP too going into draw so would like to understand the statistics.

I used the detailed odds spreadsheet as referenced above.

 

[Khunter]

thanks. that file was cut off just before the nonres data for 900-20 via my ipad. got it now.