Johnny Bravo
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 15, 2022
- Messages
- 1,069
How many big 5 points do you have?
Wyoming Bill- HB 0043
- Thread starter GoWyo!
- Start date
RobertD
Well-known member
None for any of the 5
BuzzH
Well-known member
I have no idea what you're talking about...
I bet not for to much longer, so better bitch on Colorado until your tongue swells, that way after a few years when swelling gos down you’ll feel better about tag allocations!
Plus now every knows now changes can and will likely happen so better decide early if you wanna stay and play or use up your points and sit on the sideline!
Last edited:
Gos into
Gos into effect July 1, 2022 so if your in now your good, it’s the guys that still has only 1 yr and beyond left are out !
Beanland_fan
Active member
I feel for the hunters who have spent money for pref points for the big 5.
If they go 90/10 for elk/deer/antelope I don’t think I’ll mention this to my wife. She‘ll be ecstatic that I won’t be going to Wyoming every October!
If they go 90/10 for elk/deer/antelope I don’t think I’ll mention this to my wife. She‘ll be ecstatic that I won’t be going to Wyoming every October!
Depends on what your bringing to the table, If your wearing skinny jeans and a flatty, probably shouldn’t make the move!Seriously trying to convince my wife we should move to wyoming in a year. See you soon fellow Cowboys.
GoWyo!
Well-known member
Sorry, We're full.
that might become my new "go to plan",,,keep building points,, move to a western state, get drawn, then move on to the next one,,, retirement has it's benefits?!?!
and yes,,, I know I'd move an still never get drawn,,, such is my life,,,
Carl 9.3x62
Well-known member
So many commas. I just don't get it.
sorry if it bothers you - I use them for "pauses" - ignore them, or ignore me - we'll both do fine
Carl 9.3x62
Well-known member
Nothing against you personally, it's a running joke on here. A lot of people do it.
rogerthat
Well-known member
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- Aug 29, 2015
- Messages
- 2,918
I use periods....like this....also maybe confusing?
rogerthat
Well-known member
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- Aug 29, 2015
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the other option. I use periods. Like this. also maybe confusing?
runningmt
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 25, 2018
- Messages
- 716
Nope
runningmt
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 25, 2018
- Messages
- 716
Complaining about bonus points is =/> complaining about losing on a scratch lotto ticket
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
Got it - gonna have to change up then
We need to have a talk.
This is an ellipsis "..." It can be used to mark omission: Once upon a time... and that's how you were conceived. It can be used to show the trailing off of a thought; god I hate people... It can be used to show hesitation: @Ben Lamb I hate to say this... but you're a commie. You can even use...
www.hunttalk.com
We need to have a talk.
This is an ellipsis "..." It can be used to mark omission: Once upon a time... and that's how you were conceived. It can be used to show the trailing off of a thought; god I hate people... It can be used to show hesitation: @Ben Lamb I hate to say this... but you're a commie. You can even use...
Well my goodness. Guess i will have to use my work typing on this forum. It sure has changed since I first joined (wondered off elsewhere for a while).
A lot has been posted on the change in WY to a 90/10 split; particularly if preference points will be applicable, or if a shift to bonus points or squared bonus points is in the future.
I had a model to estimate the time it may have taken to draw a mid-tier bighorn tag in the preference point pool. Average attrition by point category over the years (separated by dropouts and those drawn) and the percent of applicants who apply (versus buy points) were the major drivers.
Attrition was always high in lower point groups. For example, from 2018-2022, those with Max-19 to Max-21 points dropped out at an average rate of 13%/year.
Those applicants within 4 points of the maximum also averaged higher attrition (17%), but this was obviously driven by those drawing (14%) versus those dropping out (3%).
In between these two groups, attrition was consistent across years and point categories at 4.5+1.3% / year.
The percent of point holders who actually apply for a license averaged 29%, with low point holders applying less and higher point holders applying more often.
I fall into the Max-6 group, 21 points going into 2022. According to the WY G&F, I share this place with 314 other NR. The next group (Max-5) is also large relative to the quota - 282. Above that, there are a total of 106 point holders in the Max to Max-4 range (they got in when you still had to apply to receive a tag).
BEFORE to 90/10 change, it was clear I had about a 10-12 year wait assuming populations and quotas remained the same; putting me in my last 50’s. With the new NR Allocation, I’ll be in my well into 70’s before my point pool is even in the running. This assumes no other change in attrition or quotas.
It is difficult to predict what the 90/10 change will do to attrition numbers, but one can guess it will be large for those with fewer points; and small for the Max to Max-4 point group (they’re still in the running). Who knows what it will be in the Max-5 to Max-7; but from the data I’ve looked at there would be ZERO reason to believe you will ever draw a preference point tag if you are in the Max-7 or fewer points range (20 or less).
There’s close to 9,000 people in that category, and their preference point fees would add over 1.3 Million to the G&F budget. Many have guessed that attrition in the preference point system may be large, and the department may implement a bonus point style scheme in response. Which prompted me to do a quick and dirty look at what this could mean.
Below is a table to use as an example. It is looking at what “bonus point squared” program would have meant in 2021, sheep area 5, 10% of tags to NR (I used the 2.4, but I’d guess it would be rounded down). The important thing is to see what the impact of the bonus point system would be versus a straight random draw (0.174%).
In 2021, no max point holder applied, if one had he would have had a 0.85% chance, less than 1% but almost 5x better than 0 points. If you were a max point holder in a “bonus point squared” scenario, you would have had an almost 8% chance of drawing IF you had applied every year. Interestingly, it would have taken 20 years in the bonus point system to get better cumulative of odds than if the system had been random (like ID or NM) (highlighted) yellow.
Also interesting, it would take 12 or more points to have better odds in any given year than in a random draw (blue).
I had a model to estimate the time it may have taken to draw a mid-tier bighorn tag in the preference point pool. Average attrition by point category over the years (separated by dropouts and those drawn) and the percent of applicants who apply (versus buy points) were the major drivers.
Attrition was always high in lower point groups. For example, from 2018-2022, those with Max-19 to Max-21 points dropped out at an average rate of 13%/year.
Those applicants within 4 points of the maximum also averaged higher attrition (17%), but this was obviously driven by those drawing (14%) versus those dropping out (3%).
In between these two groups, attrition was consistent across years and point categories at 4.5+1.3% / year.
The percent of point holders who actually apply for a license averaged 29%, with low point holders applying less and higher point holders applying more often.
I fall into the Max-6 group, 21 points going into 2022. According to the WY G&F, I share this place with 314 other NR. The next group (Max-5) is also large relative to the quota - 282. Above that, there are a total of 106 point holders in the Max to Max-4 range (they got in when you still had to apply to receive a tag).
BEFORE to 90/10 change, it was clear I had about a 10-12 year wait assuming populations and quotas remained the same; putting me in my last 50’s. With the new NR Allocation, I’ll be in my well into 70’s before my point pool is even in the running. This assumes no other change in attrition or quotas.
It is difficult to predict what the 90/10 change will do to attrition numbers, but one can guess it will be large for those with fewer points; and small for the Max to Max-4 point group (they’re still in the running). Who knows what it will be in the Max-5 to Max-7; but from the data I’ve looked at there would be ZERO reason to believe you will ever draw a preference point tag if you are in the Max-7 or fewer points range (20 or less).
There’s close to 9,000 people in that category, and their preference point fees would add over 1.3 Million to the G&F budget. Many have guessed that attrition in the preference point system may be large, and the department may implement a bonus point style scheme in response. Which prompted me to do a quick and dirty look at what this could mean.
Below is a table to use as an example. It is looking at what “bonus point squared” program would have meant in 2021, sheep area 5, 10% of tags to NR (I used the 2.4, but I’d guess it would be rounded down). The important thing is to see what the impact of the bonus point system would be versus a straight random draw (0.174%).
In 2021, no max point holder applied, if one had he would have had a 0.85% chance, less than 1% but almost 5x better than 0 points. If you were a max point holder in a “bonus point squared” scenario, you would have had an almost 8% chance of drawing IF you had applied every year. Interestingly, it would have taken 20 years in the bonus point system to get better cumulative of odds than if the system had been random (like ID or NM) (highlighted) yellow.
Also interesting, it would take 12 or more points to have better odds in any given year than in a random draw (blue).
