peterk1234
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 9, 2019
- Messages
- 666
In my previous life, I practiced real estate law for about 10 years, so I tend to keep an eye on the residential real estate market. Personally, I'd be reluctant to make a cross-country move right now, especially to a "hot" area like Montana. What we're seeing now in residential real estate feels very different to me than what we saw from past run-ups in prices, and I don't have confidence about where it will go from here. And it's not just Montana. Whether it is mountain properties, lake houses, beach houses, farmettes, or any other type of residential property that might fit an urban dweller's image of "the good life," existing homes are flying off the market in all parts of the country. A tremendous number of companies and employees have tasted teleworking in the last year and most of them appear to like the flavor. For some employees, it means they only have to commute downtown two days a week now instead of five. For others, it means they only have to show up at the office a few times a year. Either way, there are millions of employees now who have a lot more options about where they can live, and it seems many of them are cashing out of their residences in major metro areas and moving to the hinterlands. But I'm not confident it's sustainable because much of the current pricing seems to be the result of short inventories and ridiculously high lumber and construction prices. But supply is not constant and neither are lumber prices and interest rates. And in the case of Montana, in particular, I have a hunch some of the transplants will find real-life winters out here much different than the vacation-winters they know from their vacations in Big Sky (or maybe I'm just hoping that).
As a relative newcomer to the state myself, a couple of other thoughts on a few topics touched upon in this thread:
1) I think Discovery Ski Area near Anaconda is one of the best "local ski hills" in America. When I used to fly out west for a week-long ski vacation, I loved places like Jackson Hole, Big Sky, Alta/Snowbird, Breckenridge, etc. (and still like those places, occasionally). But when you can only ski one week out of the year, lift ticket prices don't matter much. But now that I can ski, literally, every weekend of the season, I find my enthusiasm for $140 lift tickets has waned. I'll take Discovery's $350 season pass and ski the crap out of that mountain all season while taking a weekend trip or two to Jackson Hole or Salt Lake City.
2) Butte. Oh, man, Butte. (I don't live there, but I work there) It is a difficult town to accurately describe. It is the best of towns and the worst of towns all at the same time. For all its faults, and it has many, it is still a genuine Montana town. Of Montana's "large" towns, it is probably the only one that doesn't feel terribly different today than it did 20 years ago. If it is still possible to "get in on the ground floor" of a Montana city, Butte provides the opportunity. Butte doesn't advertise its outdoors options the way Bozeman and Missoula do, but make no mistake, it has plenty. But it is legitimately cold. -30 and -40 degree mornings happen virtually every winter.
I think there is another potential issue to add to you statement regarding the new work at home crowd. The risk the employers will figure out how ineffective it is. It may work for some industries, but one has to wonder if the inefficiencies and lack of employee interaction (brain drain), will force a back to the office movement in another three years. Then all of the folks who moved will need to make a major life decision. There will also be the people that figure out working from home ain't all that great. Most people require social interaction, more than just with their kids and spouse. Potentially, a massive impact on the rural market.