Ukraine / Russia

As an American who grew up hiding in the basement of school next to the boxes crackers, I am concerned.
I grew up watching the ruskies drive tanks into Hungary,Poland,etc. Have scars from ruskie supplied arms.

No one fully dealt with the nuclear issue. We decided to just have a open free trade world market with everyone. Hey,the big dogs made $.

I wonder if we got what we wanted.
I worry dirty bombs from "Chechins", "Kurds", or ethnic outcasts in camps are excuse from Russia,China,Saudis,Pakasani......ANYONE,etc. to expand insanity for profit. Not now,but soon after this plays out.

I am fully behind the Ukranian peoples fight for their liberty & freedoms. I do not have another life to give to the worldwide anymore. I am prepared to defend my country again.
 
MarvB said:
I agree, but I unfortunately don’t think it ends well for Russia or Ukraine, and let’s not forget to add our little basketball and missile fan in North Korea into that conversation as well.
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If Un gets too far off the rails, China will put him down like a rabid dog. He's in their backyard and they have the most to lose. The alliance between Putin and Xi concern me much more.
 
BigHornRam said:
If Un gets too far off the rails, China will put him down like a rabid dog. He's in their backyard and they have the most to lose. The alliance between Putin and Xi concern me much more.
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maybe i'm totally ignorant, but i'm sensing that Xi isn't entirely stoked about what Putin is doing.

i think even the american people aren't fully aware of what the entirety of a united NATO going to war is theoretically capable of if they have to be. my fear here is putin knows but doesn't care and my hope is that Xi knows and does care.
 
Cheesehead said:
@SAJ-99 — I genuinely hope we meet up for beers someday, maybe with @neffa3 and @wllm1313. First, second and third rounds are on me. After that, I’m easy.

My head is with yours on this. Although I do feel that even though its overall GDP is low, the leverage moment right now is if the US can force the EU off the Russian gas teat, which seems to be happening.
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Me three, on the beers, can we add a few shots of a good rye whisky to the mix, I have a bottle of Pappy's to crack. I think the issue is simple the largest producer of gas and oil, US, just defaulted on energy security and decided fossil fuels are evil so we need to cut off funding for drilling and eliminate federal land leases. US production is down 1.5 million barrels from pre pandemic levels when we actually were a net exporter. The green movement pushed the Germans into shutting nuclear power plants and importing more Russian coal and natural gas. The Chinese are building MORE coal fired plants to power electric cars, all we are doing is exporting energy security for a negative improvement in environment. If your constituents are freezing in the dark it is hard to get re-elected so no european willingness to place sanctions on gas, oil,coal or the payment system to pay the Russians for these commodities (SWIFT banking system). The EU is paying for the bombs being dropped on the Ukraine.
 
News this AM, looks like Russia is willing to talk. Even countries aligned with Russia are turning slightly negative on the whole thing. This sounds horrible (and I feel like a d*ck for even thinking it), but the longer this goes the better for Ukraine. It doesn't seem like anyone really has the stomach for war, who would have guessed?

There will be lessons from this thing.
1) tying a country to the world economically doesn't stop an autocrat from doing what autocrats do. If a country makes a deal like Germany, it better have a back-up plan for the essentials like food, water, energy.
2) US armed forces will use this to study the Russian military strategy. It's a West Point military class in real time.
3) How dependent are we on the technology infrastructure and do we have back-up plan for that? The cyber attacks don't get as much press as the bombs, but are far more effective. I assume the US has a few things they could do but chose not to for fear of giving away and advantage? But am I being too optimistic?
 
TheGrayRider said:
View attachment 213630
Similarly, at this time, the USA is one sunken ship or one invaded NATO member away from engaging our ground troops.

Up to 75 Percent of US Youth Ineligible for Military Service. Lack of Education, Physical Problems Disqualify Most.​


That fact and statistic is truly what’s truly most alarming and frightening. We can’t muster an Army like WW1 or WW2 due to current youth obesity, mental health issues, lack of education, and opiod/prescription pill usage. The enemy could just walk right in!
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You are a fool if you believe this.
 
SAJ-99 said:
News this AM, looks like Russia is willing to talk. Even countries aligned with Russia are turning slightly negative on the whole thing. This sounds horrible (and I feel like a d*ck for even thinking it), but the longer this goes the better for Ukraine. It doesn't seem like anyone really has the stomach for war, who would have guessed?

There will be lessons from this thing.
1) tying a country to the world economically doesn't stop an autocrat from doing what autocrats do. If a country makes a deal like Germany, it better have a back-up plan for the essentials like food, water, energy.
2) US armed forces will use this to study the Russian military strategy. It's a West Point military class in real time.
3) How dependent are we on the technology infrastructure and do we have back-up plan for that? The cyber attacks don't get as much press as the bombs, but are far more effective. I assume the US has a few things they could do but chose not to for fear of giving away and advantage? But am I being too optimistic?
Click to expand...
I tend to agree, and likewise I sound like a dick but I think as far as US prestige and economic influence it’s probably a net win. Putin looks unhinged and potentially it drives European allies to the US for energy.

The Marcellus has an incredible amount of gas and Europeans pay often 10X what US consumers do for gas, exposure to those markets would be incredible. Historically both democrats and republicans have stood in the way, so all things considered I’m not actually that optimistic.
 
TOGIE said:
maybe i'm totally ignorant, but i'm sensing that Xi isn't entirely stoked about what Putin is doing.

i think even the american people aren't fully aware of what the entirety of a united NATO going to war is theoretically capable of if they have to be. my fear here is putin knows but doesn't care and my hope is that Xi knows and does care.
Click to expand...
Xi might be having second thoughts or maybe not. Works for him that we are hyper focused on Putin right now.

www.defensenews.com

See Russia and China launch joint military drills

The exercise marked the first time that Russian troops had taken part in joint drills on the territory of China.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

This was last summer. Obviously they were planning things back then that are going forward today.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Good article, but my first reaction is why would the US government let someone publish technological advantages or disadvantages in a public military blog? I'm sure there is some truth to it on that topic. But I have to assume there is a lot of stuff we don't see or hear about.
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Exactly. I have a cousin that’s done 5 tours between Afghanistan and Iraq. He’s had his bags packed for two weeks in anticipation of this. I talked to him Thursday and asked what his status was. His response was basically. Russia has lost A ton of troops and assets. Everything the news is showing us is bits and pieces of the truth. He’s tabbed for Germany, but he thinks Putin is looking for a way out of this disaster because it’s not going the way he wanted.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Good article, but my first reaction is why would the US government let someone publish technological advantages or disadvantages in a public military blog? I'm sure there is some truth to it on that topic. But I have to assume there is a lot of stuff we don't see or hear about.
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Why would the “US government allow”? ..

It’s not new news that the US is likely way behind China and Russia on cutting edge nuclear delivery weapons.

Putin needs to die.
 
LopeHunter said:
The West is not keen to spill blood on the soil of countries that are not really part of the club. We generally keep our soldiers out of Africa. Have have kept out of Asia for a few decades. The exception? We fight in the Middle East out of a mix of wanting Saudis to cooperate on oil production, maintaining petroleum pricing in dollars and pushing back against the Shia.

We will let Ukraine fall. As we did other land masses as Russia rolled over borders the past few years. The promise of weapons and money for Ukraine does no good when roads are plugged and the air space is dangerous. It is too late for that. France and the America promised Ukraine we had their back if they turned over their nukes left from the Soviet days. Well, so much for our word.

We will eventually relax the sanctions in a year or two as Germany needs Russian fuel because Germany moth-balled their nukes while France built more to be independent of Russian energy. Germany is the weakest link in NATO at this point and they have no plan to wean off Russian energy thus Russian coercion.
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You have what I believe is the best assessment of the the situation. After gobbling up much of Ukraine,,,maybe all of it,,, Putin will be like a python and sit somewhat quietly digesting his meal then in handlful of years he will repeat his feasting on some other critical morsel of land.

A larger scale, more international war, is not in his interest. He is incredibltly cunning and knows just how far to push the weaknesses in the international system.

What will continue on and on however will be his cyber war with the democracies around the world, especially the USA.

They are cheap to wage and ever so effcetive, simply a multi prong misinformation campaign doing incredible damage to USA order and production. A good example is the Covid anti-vaccine propoganda which has been traced back to Putin/Russia.

Not that many years ago, Hmmm, maybe 7 or 8, I spent a month travelling in SE Asia.

All across Vietnam there is a gambling game in which a duck is put in a cage with a with a python. Thes bets were placed as to the actual day when the duck would be gone and become a lump in the pythons belly.

As I got closer to the cage, a big yellow feathered duck climbed on top on top pf the python, who it had gotten used to.

My guide, said with a sneer, "The Duck thinks the python is his friend"

The two ducks I have grown up with were named "Daffy and Donald "
 
Carnage2011 said:
Exactly. I have a cousin that’s done 5 tours between Afghanistan and Iraq. He’s had his bags packed for two weeks in anticipation of this. I talked to him Thursday and asked what his status was. His response was basically. Russia has lost A ton of troops and assets. Everything the news is showing us is bits and pieces of the truth. He’s tabbed for Germany, but he thinks Putin is looking for a way out of this disaster because it’s not going the way he wanted.
Click to expand...
The egotistical sociopath Putin is slowly coming to the realization that the Chinese have played him like a Stratovarious about now.
 
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