Schaaf
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I think Putin overplayed his hand. We’ll see.
Ukraine / Russia
- Thread starter Cheesehead
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LopeHunter
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The West is not keen to spill blood on the soil of countries that are not really part of the club. We generally keep our soldiers out of Africa. Have have kept out of Asia for a few decades. The exception? We fight in the Middle East out of a mix of wanting Saudis to cooperate on oil production, maintaining petroleum pricing in dollars and pushing back against the Shia.
We will let Ukraine fall. As we did other land masses as Russia rolled over borders the past few years. The promise of weapons and money for Ukraine does no good when roads are plugged and the air space is dangerous. It is too late for that. France and the America promised Ukraine we had their back if they turned over their nukes left from the Soviet days. Well, so much for our word.
We will eventually relax the sanctions in a year or two as Germany needs Russian fuel because Germany moth-balled their nukes while France built more to be independent of Russian energy. Germany is the weakest link in NATO at this point and they have no plan to wean off Russian energy thus Russian coercion.
We will let Ukraine fall. As we did other land masses as Russia rolled over borders the past few years. The promise of weapons and money for Ukraine does no good when roads are plugged and the air space is dangerous. It is too late for that. France and the America promised Ukraine we had their back if they turned over their nukes left from the Soviet days. Well, so much for our word.
We will eventually relax the sanctions in a year or two as Germany needs Russian fuel because Germany moth-balled their nukes while France built more to be independent of Russian energy. Germany is the weakest link in NATO at this point and they have no plan to wean off Russian energy thus Russian coercion.
D
Deleted member 28227
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I’ve been finding discussions of Nord Stream 2 interesting… “it’s built the US can’t do anything” … I mean it’s a 1200km pipeline we could blow it up pretty easily.
I think you nailed it and Germanys energy policies are the real problem.
My 2 cents, the likely best course of action is destabilizing Putins inner circle and causing a power struggle.
I wonder how much Ukrainians value their independence, will there be a protracted resistance or will the Ukraine fold back into the ‘Russian Federation’.
rtraverdavis
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Speaking purely on the US domestic implications of all this, anybody feel like having a clear and threatening common enemy like Putin will diminish some of the partisan political bullshit and bring us together as a country a little bit?
I’ve always been an optimist.
I’ve always been an optimist.
TheJason
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From what I’ve seen thus far, i wish I shared the same optimism.
rtraverdavis
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Yeah, who the f*<k am I kidding? There’ll probably be pro Putin rallies all over the country this summer.
Cheesehead
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The quintessential question (as always?) for Europe is Germany
They sort of gave a medium answer today. Weapons and SWIFT. Ish for both but better than nothing.
Now that the UK has exited stage right (left?), the French are the ones with the strongest foreign policy stance (Mali, Sahel, an actual army, Macron as Boss Hog as diplomatic for Europe now that Merkel the baller is gone).
As for whether Ukrainians value independence…good lord I have no doubts. It’s literally arming grandma with an AK and the niece with two Molotov cocktails. Zelensky has gone from comedian to badass motivator of 40+M people par none. I’m super impressed.
I wish America could find that level of unity.
D
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Seems more likely to further divide the Republican Party if anything.
Zelensky has been quite impressive.
The conflict certainly should make democrats reconsider an East coast NG pipeline and export terminal.
elkduds
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I hope seeing how a real enemy threatens us may be unifying. We haven't had a decent international boogeyman for awhile, instead we just disagree with each other.
My take on the long game along Russia's border w Europe:
Putin stepped in it, after Biden set him up by GFO of Afghanistan, and by tempting Ukraine w the security of NATO membership/protection.
Ukraine becomes Russia's rerun of Afghanistan. Their last Afghan adventure broke the Soviet bloc. Russia depletes its economy and saps its military trying to occupy Ukraine. CIA and others promote insurgency and resistance w $, arms, technology, assassinations in Ukraine and elsewhere. NATO increases its presence all along Russia's western border, uses active war games to keep the comrades warm and busy. Russian economy suffers under sanctions, the costs of maintaining occupation, increased military spending to counterbalance NATO. Russian public suffers economically, grows restive. Cyberintelligence informs the Russian population about Putin's many Big Lies while the body count piles up. It only took 15,000 KIAs in Afghanistan to break their will in the 1980s. US hackers regularly attack Russian cyberstructure. Oligarchs take out Putin w help from CIA, MI6, Mossad, etc. and install a leader more invested in economics than dick measuring. Afghanistan reemerges as a hemorrhoid on Russia's southern extremity due to instability in the wake of the US withdrawal, duh.
Hopefully we don't empower the next wave of fundamentalist terrorists through the Ukrainian insurgency, so we don't see another Al Qaeda or ISIL in the aftermath.
So... is the US funding Putin's invasion by buying his oil ? Any thoughts in Washington about becoming sort of energy independent again ? I wonder how many Russian agents have come across the southern border during the past year.
TheGrayRider
Well-known member
Similarly, at this time, the USA is one sunken ship or one invaded NATO member away from engaging our ground troops.
Up to 75 Percent of US Youth Ineligible for Military Service. Lack of Education, Physical Problems Disqualify Most.
That fact and statistic is truly what’s truly most alarming and frightening. We can’t muster an Army like WW1 or WW2 due to current youth obesity, mental health issues, lack of education, and opiod/prescription pill usage. The enemy could just walk right in!
np307
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I feel it’s it has had opposite effect. This along with every other freaking thing is used to proclaim and galvanize their tribalism and proclamation of their “ideology “.
Now now that doesn’t fit the see you elected the wrong guy narrative.
Do something productive and put out of the Batman spotlights. Mercia
Nick87
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Well it almost made 12 hours
np307
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blueridge
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I think Putin overestimated Russians’ domestic support/tolerance of the invasion. Being tough and standing up to the west is one thing; war with a neighbor is another. I think internal cracks and demonstrations will grow and he will have an increasingly impossible job of controlling the narrative, especially as more images of civilian casualties come out and when they start to lose more of their own.
@wllm1313 , you nailed it with Germany’s energy dependence being a major national security detriment. That goes for all of Europe. (Same with manufacturing for us with China.)
Respect to the Ukrainian people. Zelenskyy is looking like a bad ass.
@wllm1313 , you nailed it with Germany’s energy dependence being a major national security detriment. That goes for all of Europe. (Same with manufacturing for us with China.)
Respect to the Ukrainian people. Zelenskyy is looking like a bad ass.
I doubt it. In my travels I have found Americans be Incredibly egocentric, we tend to over estimate our influence on other counties actions. And because of that we discuss events from US dominated prospective. What we are forgetting is that in this situation and location we have actors that have a historical timeline that is older then the existence of the United States and all that history shapes their thoughts and action way more then what the current US domestic oil production trend is.
It’s way easier for us to default back to the current baseline partisan rancor and try to paint our domestic energy policy as a cause of the current situation. Not that it would be any different if we had the previous administration in power, then we would have opposite teams cheerleaders hinting at pro Russian stances.
Nameless Range
Well-known member
Out of interest and curiosity I have been trying to follow what is going on and I still don't know what I am seeing. To be clear, I don't know anything either, and am chiefly relying on takes from people who seem trustworthy. All I know is it is sad. I loaded my sons up for a wrestling meet yesterday and looked at the sun rising over the Elkhorns and thought to myself that 5,500 miles in that direction some dad is probably loading his sons up in a car for entirely different reasons.
The same people who said Russia would never invade Ukraine now say Russia would never use nukes. What the hell is gonna happen? Will Ukraine be Russia's by April? A portion of it? A prolonged siege? Will it be the US's turn to sit back and watch Russia deal with 21st century insurgency and the soul-sucking nature of it on a culture? I try and read the heady high level takes on these things, but my mind just drifts to the dads and moms and sons and daughters, and the decisions being made by them so hard and final that I flinch away, and cheer for my kids and drink coffee and muse on hunting forums.
The same people who said Russia would never invade Ukraine now say Russia would never use nukes. What the hell is gonna happen? Will Ukraine be Russia's by April? A portion of it? A prolonged siege? Will it be the US's turn to sit back and watch Russia deal with 21st century insurgency and the soul-sucking nature of it on a culture? I try and read the heady high level takes on these things, but my mind just drifts to the dads and moms and sons and daughters, and the decisions being made by them so hard and final that I flinch away, and cheer for my kids and drink coffee and muse on hunting forums.
Cheesehead
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For sure
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