People Fleeing cities? Not according to Zillow

[Irrelevant]

they always seem to have gotten by in Boulder one way or another


my wife and i are trying to get a lot and have a house built - keyword is trying, it's proving difficult to snag one - and the base price for our preferred model from the builder was nearly $100,000 cheaper two years ago

every fiber in my being is screaming don't buy a house right now, we're walking on egg shells...... but i kinda felt that way a year ago, and 2 years ago, and 3 years ago....

I was in that same boat for our first house. I bit the bullet and bought. Then went underwater on our loan for 9 years. If it doesn't feel right don't do it.

 

[TOGIE]

I was in that same boat for our first house. I bit the bullet and bought. Then went underwater on our loan for 9 years. If it doesn't feel right don't do it.

i'm like split

i personally am not in the camp that there is going to be a giant real estate crash anytime soon. economic recession? stock market recession? feels more likely. will it wreck real estate like what happened in '08/'09? who can say.

the fear is that we put off and aggressively save even more to buy next year in hopes that things cool off and/or drop only to find out next spring that our savings increase was outpaced by the further rise in real estate and we're no better off

i mean FFS we sat down with the builder last week to accurately price out the model we liked for our own financial planning and over the weekend the price went up 6 grand.... if it goes up again before we can sign a contract we're out

there's risk in everything i guess. if you could afford the loan in the first place being underwater sucks but doesn't matter if you weren't planning to move anytime soon and/or it wasn't an investment property, which i know you know.

 

[TOGIE]

In the same boat.

it's such a bummer.

it kills me to see people i know go buy like 3000 square foot homes in tennessee on like 0.5 acres for 300,000 dollars

the 1200 square foot condo we currently rent is worth like 325,000

 

[Irrelevant]

i'm like split

i personally am not in the camp that there is going to be a giant real estate crash anytime soon. economic recession? stock market recession? feels more likely. will it wreck real estate like what happened in '08/'09? who can say.

the fear is that we put off and aggressively save even more to buy next year in hopes that things cool off and/or drop only to find out next spring that our savings increase was outpaced by the further rise in real estate and we're no better off

i mean FFS we sat down with the builder last week to accurately price out the model we liked for our own financial planning and over the weekend the price went up 6 grand.... if it goes up again before we can sign a contract we're out

there's risk in everything i guess. if you could afford the loan in the first place being underwater sucks but doesn't matter if you weren't planning to move anytime soon and/or it wasn't an investment property, which i know you know.

I know waiting sucks, and with all the "free money" being thrown around it's hard to see it crash hard. But there's never been a boom that wasn't followed by a bust. A bust will happen. It's just when and how bad. I personally think Congress as done a really good job of ignoring all of the things than lead to the last housing crash, and have lifted some of the restrictions put in place to keep it from happening again. The shear cost of building materials right now is unsustainable. I'm a firm believer there has to be a correction.

 

[Nick87]

I know waiting sucks, and with all the "free money" being thrown around it's hard to see it crash hard. But there's never been a boom that wasn't followed by a bust. A bust will happen. It's just when and how bad. I personally think Congress as done a really good job of ignoring all of the things than lead to the last housing crash, and have lifted some of the restrictions put in place to keep it from happening again. The shear cost of building materials right now is unsustainable. I'm a firm believer there has to be a correction.

Agreed I dont think we will see an 08 again, I sure hope not since I'm in the trades. I'm a believer in what goes up will come down, the intensity of it is what's in question and how much longer until it happens. I think in the next year things will level off some once the covid shit starts to fall off. Nobody here is selling simply because they have no idea if there going to work tomorrow or be laid off etc. Km hoping once that goes away a little more inventory will help settle things down a little. Interest rates have a lot do with the current climate as well I'm sure.

 

[TOGIE]

I know waiting sucks, and with all the "free money" being thrown around it's hard to see it crash hard. But there's never been a boom that wasn't followed by a bust. A bust will happen. It's just when and how bad. I personally think Congress as done a really good job of ignoring all of the things than lead to the last housing crash, and have lifted some of the restrictions put in place to keep it from happening again. The shear cost of building materials right now is unsustainable. I'm a firm believer there has to be a correction.

i'm firm believer there has to be too. i'm just not entirely convinced it's gonna be this year or next year.

it seems there are some fundamental differences between what's happening right now and a lot of the post-mortem indices that we now can look at from '06 and '07. namely there doesn't seem to be a debt growth problem quite like before

don't get me wrong, i think it will be corrected, it's inevitable - i just don't know when and it's hard to say it's gonna be soon enough to matter. and what will be the catalyst? surely it won't be the exact same thing as last time.... literally no one can say really. i'm also a believer in the concept that when it's time to buy a house as a family and you can afford it, it's time, the market shouldn't be the driving factor.

now again don't get me wrong - truly, my overly conservative neurotic self thinks only idiots would buy a house right now (as i'm trying to buy a house right now)

 

[Irrelevant]

i'm firm believer there has to be too. i'm just not entirely convinced it's gonna be this year or next year.

it seems there are some fundamental differences between what's happening right now and a lot of the post-mortem indices that we now can look at from '06 and '07. namely there doesn't seem to be a debt growth problem quite like before

don't get me wrong, i think it will be corrected, it's inevitable - i just don't know when and it's hard to say it's gonna be soon enough to matter. and what will be the catalyst? surely it won't be the exact same thing as last time.... literally no one can say really. i'm also a believer in the concept that when it's time to buy a house as a family and you can afford it, it's time, the market shouldn't be the driving factor.

now again don't get me wrong - truly, my overly conservative neurotic self thinks only idiots would buy a house right now (as i'm trying to buy a house right now)

At least make sure you like enough to be comfortable being stuck there for a while. I about went crazy.

 

[TOGIE]

At least make sure you like enough to be comfortable being stuck there for a while. I about went crazy.

definitely.

we're hoping to leverage that cheap money and go bigger than we planned for that exact reason.

but seriously, if they raise prices again before we're called up to sign for a lot we're out. then we'll try the game and engage in the typical fist fights for the like 6 homes that come on the market each monday and are gone by monday evening at +50K asking. though we'll probably get one black eye and decide to rent a for another year

again, puke emoji

 

[mtmuley]

We have a subdivision that will hit the market in the next few months that is going to go to a lottery among qualified buyers. Seriously.

Holy shit. Not really surprised though. mtmuley

 

[Nick87]

We have a subdivision that will hit the market in the next few months that is going to go to a lottery among qualified buyers. Seriously.

Wtf

 

[JLS]

This housing boom is IMO a completely different animal, and as such will not be subject to the same likelihood of a crash/correction.

 

[Nick87]

This housing boom is IMO a completely different animal, and as such will not be subject to the same likelihood of a crash/correction.

I think your right, but I try not to think about it that way. We sold our house 1 year ago and are renting until we find what we want. Your post literally makes my stomach turn, because part of me thinks its spot on.

 

[TOGIE]

This housing boom is IMO a completely different animal, and as such will not be subject to the same likelihood of a crash/correction.

I think your right, but I try not to think about it that way. We sold our house 1 year ago and are renting until we find what we want. Your post literally makes my stomach turn, because part of me thinks its spot on.

well, maybe i interpret @JLS wrong, but i don't think he's saying that just cause we're having a boom doesn't mean we're having a crash next year. the mechanics of each boom are different and therefore the likelihood of a crash is different. or more importantly, predicting the crash is a lost cause (which goes without saying right?).

 

[Nick87]

well, maybe i interpret @JLS wrong, but i don't think he's saying that just cause we're having a boom doesn't mean we're having a crash next year. the mechanics of each boom are different and therefore the likelihood of a crash is different. or more importantly, predicting the crash is a lost cause (which goes without saying right?).

Agreed

 

[TOGIE]

Agreed

or maybe i misinterpreted your post? i guess the stomach turning you spoke of was due to the idea that it might not crash rather than it crashing? lol

 

[JLS]

well, maybe i interpret @JLS wrong, but i don't think he's saying that just cause we're having a boom doesn't mean we're having a crash next year. the mechanics of each boom are different and therefore the likelihood of a crash is different. or more importantly, predicting the crash is a lost cause (which goes without saying right?).

The mechanics of the boom are driven by people with a hell of a lot of money moving to areas where the cost of living is far cheaper than where they previously lived. I don't think markets in the Zoom Boom areas are going to crash, or necessarily correct. I think demand MAY eventually slow, but if I was going to bet I'd put my money on many of the Zoom Boom communities carrying the same upward trajectory for years. The only thing I see changing this trajectory is one major ass recession. Of course, this is all worth exactly what you paid for it.

 

[Nick87]

or maybe i misinterpreted your post? i guess the stomach turning you spoke of was due to the idea that it might not crash rather than it crashing? lol

Correct, I dont want anything to crash but leveling off for God's sake would be good.

 

[rtraverdavis]

What’s crazy to me is the current demand here in Portland—which is a far cry from Bozeman. It’s definitely not the war zone that the nightly news has made it out to be, but it has gotten pretty gross. And the craziest thing is that even with all the negative news coverage and the grim reality of a large homeless population (and everything that comes with that) we could make a killing on our house if we sold right now, and do it quickly. It’s making me really nervous that there is going to be a major correction—like who the hell is paying these prices to be here?

I wouldn’t worry about it so much if we weren’t planning to sell in 2023, when we’re done building our home in Central OR. My fear is that things will dive between then and now, and we’ll have to finance way more than we planned to on the new home. It just hard to know how to plan right now.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

What’s crazy to me is the current demand here in Portland—which is a far cry from Bozeman. It’s definitely not the war zone that the nightly news has made it out to be, but it has gotten pretty gross. And the craziest thing is that even with all the negative news coverage and the grim reality of a large homeless population (and everything that comes with that) we could make a killing on our house if we sold right now, and do it quickly. It’s making me really nervous that there is going to be a major correction—like who the hell is paying these prices to be here?

I wouldn’t worry about it so much if we weren’t planning to sell in 2023, when we’re done building our home in Central OR. My fear is that things will dive between then and now, and we’ll have to finance way more than we planned to on the new home. It just hard to know how to plan right now.

I wonder if zoom job folks are going to discover the midwest.

My wife and I were talking about moving to Michigan or Minnesota in a few years. For the equity in our apartment in CO we could put 50% down on a nice house, I can keep my same job, she can get one there, the delta in mortgage payments can go to travel/hunting/etc.

I think I'd ski more living in MI and flying to Canada on vacation then I would living in Denver, the drive up to the mountains is just brutal and I find myself blowing it off for a run with the dog. In 2019 I ended up skiing only a handful of days on resort.

Boston traffic to skiing isn't bad, but it's even more expensive than Denver in terms of housing.

Plus I could hassle Ben or Vikingsguy on the weekends so I would have that going for me...

... also not gonna lie I'm drinking the Charlie Beren's koolaid

 

[Irrelevant]

I wonder if zoom job folks are going to discover the midwest.

My wife and I were talking about moving to Michigan or Minnesota in a few years. For the equity in our apartment in CO we could put 50% down on a nice house, I can keep my same job, she can get one there, the delta in mortgage payments can go to travel/hunting/etc.

I think I'd ski more living in MI and flying to Canada on vacation then I would living in Denver, the drive up to the mountains is just brutal and I find myself blowing it off for a run with the dog. In 2019 I ended up skiing only a handful of days on resort.

Boston traffic to skiing isn't bad, but it's even more expensive than Denver in terms of housing.

Plus I could hassle Ben or Vikingsguy on the weekends so I would have that going for me...

... also not gonna lie I'm drinking the Charlie Beren's koolaid

I could bow out now and move to SD free and clear and probably never work again, at least not full time. Bird hunt to my hearts content.