People Fleeing cities? Not according to Zillow

[Deleted member 16014]

This probably sounds like a millennial thing to say but I know I'll never own a house where I have my career and I'm fine with it. I'm investing elsewhere, and may use that to pay cash for a house when the time comes and/or I retire.
I forced buying a house once before and got singed, I don't want to do it again "just because". Even if I could come up with a $100,000+ down payment (see Teton county WY graph from the last page), I'm not willing to risk going under more than my net worth if the market turns a little.

 

[Irrelevant]

I'm not willing to risk going under more than my net worth if the market turns a little.

24 just married, all of 9 months into my career and this was our situation. I debated declaring bankruptcy... not a place I would want to go again.

 

[Western Traveler1]

I have heard about boom bust housing markets my whole life. Yep, they happen. However, short of a collapse of an industry that is the sole reason for a town to exist once the crisis is over the housing market does not only rebound but surpasses the former high mark prior to that collapse.
Especially in sought after locations. Bozeman will never again be the city that existed in 2008. Now with so many working remote that can pretty much live anywhere they choose? Where would you want to establish roots? Buy there and weather the storm. If I was to make a suggestion it would be to buy two. Always keep one. If you fail, so? What if you don’t?

 

[rtraverdavis]

I wonder if zoom job folks are going to discover the midwest.

My wife and I were talking about moving to Michigan or Minnesota in a few years. For the equity in our apartment in CO we could put 50% down on a nice house, I can keep my same job, she can get one there, the delta in mortgage payments can go to travel/hunting/etc.

I think I'd ski more living in MI and flying to Canada on vacation then I would living in Denver, the drive up to the mountains is just brutal and I find myself blowing it off for a run with the dog. In 2019 I ended up skiing only a handful of days on resort.

Boston traffic to skiing isn't bad, but it's even more expensive than Denver in terms of housing.

Plus I could hassle Ben or Vikingsguy on the weekends so I would have that going for me...

... also not gonna lie I'm drinking the Charlie Beren's koolaid

Honestly man, as much as I never thought I’d say this, moving to the Midwest sounds pretty good. Hell, @JLS is always going on about how great Arkansas is. But all of my family is here and I want my kids to grow up close with them. Plus my wife and I would both take huge hits (I mean like half) to our paychecks in both of our professions. Beyond those two factors I think we’d likely do just that. Well, I’d miss the mountains, too.

 

[Nick87]

Plus my wife and I would both take huge hits (I mean like half) to our paychecks in both of our professions.

Funny how things vary, would be half the pay for us to move west.

 

[rtraverdavis]

Funny how things vary, would be half the pay for us to move west.

Teacher and nurse here. We’ll take a hit moving to Central Oregon, but not like we would moving to the Midwest. And it’s a hit I’m willing to take to be in a place I love. I’m done living in cities.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Teacher and nurse here. We’ll take a hit moving to Central Oregon, but not like we would moving to the Midwest. And it’s a hit I’m willing to take to be in a place I love. I’m done living in cities.

My parents were teachers, we actually lives in MI for a couple years 2x the salary of CO teachers at the time

Dad was at Reese Puffer the same time Rinella was there... always wondered if he or one of his brothers had my dad as a teacher.

 

[Nick87]

Teacher and nurse here. We’ll take a hit moving to Central Oregon, but not like we would moving to the Midwest. And it’s a hit I’m willing to take to be in a place I love. I’m done living in cities.

I here you, it would actually be more like a 60% cut for me (at least from what I've found). Heavy equipment operator, not too mention my insurance is pretty hard to beat which is another thing. Wife stays home with kids and part time waitress. If it wasnt for the $ there would be absolutely no reason to stay here. Should of listened when they said stay in school (as most of you guys can gather from my punctuation most of the time).

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I here you, it would actually be more like a 60% cut for mr (at least from what I've found). Heavy equipment operator, not too mention my insurance is pretty hard to beat which is another thing. Wife stays home with kids and part time waitress. If it wasnt for the $ there would be absolutely no reason to stay here. Should of listened when they said stay in school (as most of you guys can gather from my punctuation most of the time).

Who can type worth a chit on a phone, any post I make that isn’t riddled with typos I composed in word lol

 

[Nameless Range]

Easy for me to say with no skin in the game.

If you are waiting around, hoping things will take a downturn in the booming west, it is a flip of the coin, maybe worse odds, that you will die before it happens.

The county I grew up in and live in now was at a time, the fastest growing county in the state in the 1990s. Imagine someone in 1992 in Montana City waiting for that economic cost correction. They are still waiting.

The masses coming here, are chiefly well-to-do. They are paying cash, or at least are paying for a large portion of their purchases upfront. They are telling their friends. Hell, they are literally drafting their friends to come up here. I see it.

It is true that this “zoom boom” is an increase in the rate of ascension on the plotted line of growth and cost in the west. But it is also true that that plotted line has done nothing but go up for the last 40 years. Even during the recession we were insulated from it.

The opinion of an uneducated map maker: If you are trying to time a downturn in growth in the west, you won’t wait this out successfully. Either way, it will hurt

 

[Irrelevant]

I here you, it would actually be more like a 60% cut for me (at least from what I've found). Heavy equipment operator, not too mention my insurance is pretty hard to beat which is another thing. Wife stays home with kids and part time waitress. If it wasnt for the $ there would be absolutely no reason to stay here. Should of listened when they said stay in school (as most of you guys can gather from my punctuation most of the time).

Seriously? Man, when I played engineer and had to do wage rate interviews I was shocked at how much money they were making.

 

[Nick87]

Seriously? Man, when I played engineer and had to do wage rate interviews I was shocked at how much money they were making.

Idk, never had much interest in Washington so cant speak to that. Otherwise the difference was pretty staggering, I'm usually able to pick up a ton of OT here also.

 

[Irrelevant]

Yeah, that's the reality.

Every day for the last couple years I've thought about how thankful (and lucky) I am for buying when I did. I was making ten bucks an hour and literally sleeping in my work truck 5 nights a week. The bank was willing to give me money though, so I went for it.

I look at our mortgage now and feel like I'm getting away with a crime compared to what the houses in my neighborhood are listed for.

From the sounds of it, I probably bought 6-12 months after @neffa3 did. It's certainly a gamble, but if I would have waited until it was the responsible thing to do, I'd have likely never caught back up to the market.

In the end. 12 years later we managed 25% value increase when we sold it. It took 10 yrs to break even, then it started to take off. Now I wish I hadn't sold the first home but kept it as a rental. We're be making a killing. But ya live and learn and work with what you have.

While I'm with @rtraverdavis, I'd miss the mountains terribly, and living a few hrs from my family isn't bad, part of me sees stuff like this and I just want to send in my two weeks. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/810-Cornell-Ave-Newell-SD-57760/194901962_zpid/

 

[TheJason]

Whoa, that’s tempting

 

[rtraverdavis]

In the end. 12 years later we managed 25% value increase when we sold it. It took 10 yrs to break even, then it started to take off. Now I wish I hadn't sold the first home but kept it as a rental. We're be making a killing. But ya live and learn and work with what you have.

While I'm with @rtraverdavis, I'd miss the mountains terribly, and living a few hrs from my family isn't bad, part of me sees stuff like this and I just want to send in my two weeks. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/810-Cornell-Ave-Newell-SD-57760/194901962_zpid/
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My best friend has lived in LA for the last 12 years. For those 12 years he lived like a monk, saved up a pile of money, and just this past week bought a place in New Mexico for cash. He’s a carpenter, and with almost no overhead, he can pick up work when he wants to, and set it aside when he wants to. Talking with him a couple days ago he sounded like a prisoner who’d just been set free.

 

[Irrelevant]

Whoa, that’s tempting

Hunt talk hideout?

 

[shadowtracker]

I’m in the middle of a build in SW Montana. While the numbers don’t lie about the current boom in certain areas of Montana there are still reasonable areas to seek out. The one criteria we looked for was a lack of high speed internet as it’s not anything we need moving forward. That opened up some areas and we were able to purchase land at a reasonable price. The build itself is going well and we are currently on budget for the square footage price point but have had to make some adjustments to accommodate high material pricing. I think in the end we will probably run about 10% above our goal. It’s manageable for us and we are by no means wealthy.

 

[Gellar]

My best friend has lived in LA for the last 12 years. For those 12 years he lived like a monk, saved up a pile of money, and just this past week bought a place in New Mexico for cash. He’s a carpenter, and with almost no overhead, he can pick up work when he wants to, and set it aside when he wants to. Talking with him a couple days ago he sounded like a prisoner who’d just been set free.

What’s Dave Ramsey always say? “Live like no one else, to live like no one else.”

 

[MarvB]

One thing that we finally have on our side (after living throughout the west) is finally being in a place I’m not tempted to leave. Finding some solice in the fact that even if the market goes to shit again it may not matter as much to me as, in all likelihood, it will be my kids that will have to decide what to do with the place when we are “gone”.... not that I’m hoping that’s part of any future conversation anytime soon lol

 

[longbow51]

You know, it's been said, "You can have anything, but you can't have everything". If you want to live in Montana, you can. Buy your home, get a truck and a car that last a long time, and avoid all other things with motors, and you'll be fine. It's the jet skis, 4 wheelers, ski boats, and travel trailers, etc. which we see kill young folks financially. You can buy great camping, hunting, and fishing gear, and a raft or canoe, for a pittance compared to a camp trailer. Plus your kids will learn how to enjoy the actual outdoors.

If you have extra money after funding 401Ks and emergency savings, put a little extra toward the principal on your home loan. Then, you can always refinance to lower your monthly payment when (if) the mortgage rates crater again.