Im bowing out

[Cheesehead]

Oh, and I realize the irony because I literally started a thread about walnut trees that I need to get back to

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Reasoning?

Pardon the format I'm actually copy/pasting from the assessor. So yeah, single family home no upgrades over this time period.

"Oh yeah well apple over the same time period" ... bro a cabin in the woods is not a trillion dollar company.

^ that's just stupid.

Also you have to compare it against it's asset class, you're not comparing this sale to the SP 500 over the same time period your comparing it to single family homes, and looking at the delta between this sale and the average.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

It was a funny meme that would garner him additional coveted "likes" towards his inflated "reaction score"

I'm definitely the Tesla of the forum... lotta bullshit not a lot of value.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I'm definitely the Tesla of the forum... lotta bullshit not a lot of value.

And just like Tesla you are saving the world single-handedly (or maybe not)

 

[Deleted member 28227]

And just like Tesla you are saving the world single-handedly (or maybe not)

 

[Cheesehead]

 

[Bigjay73]

We looked at this house last week. It's the size of a condo, 2 bedroom, one of which you can barely fit a twin bed in and I had major concerns about the foundation and concrete. It's under contract for $590000, 105k over asking

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Littleton/7667-Grizzly-Ct-80125/home/35270178?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=instant_listings_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01MzM4NjM4OSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19pbnN0YW50XzE1JmE9Y2xpY2smcz1mYXZvcml0ZXMmdD12aWV3X2RldGFpbHMmZW1haWxfaWQ9NTMzODYzODlfMTY0NDYwNzQ1OV8yJnVwZGF0ZV90eXBlPTQmbGlzdGluZ19pZD0xNDQ2MDU3NzgmcHJvcGVydHlfaWQ9MzUyNzAxNzgmcG9zaXRpb25fbnVtYmVyPTA=

 

[BigHornRam]

We looked at this house last week. It's the size of a condo, 2 bedroom, one of which you can barely fit a twin bed in and I had major concerns about the foundation and concrete. It's under contract for $590000, 105k over asking

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Littleton/7667-Grizzly-Ct-80125/home/35270178?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=instant_listings_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01MzM4NjM4OSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19pbnN0YW50XzE1JmE9Y2xpY2smcz1mYXZvcml0ZXMmdD12aWV3X2RldGFpbHMmZW1haWxfaWQ9NTMzODYzODlfMTY0NDYwNzQ1OV8yJnVwZGF0ZV90eXBlPTQmbGlzdGluZ19pZD0xNDQ2MDU3NzgmcHJvcGVydHlfaWQ9MzUyNzAxNzgmcG9zaXRpb25fbnVtYmVyPTA=

It says they are accepting backup offers........you still got a chance!

 

[Deleted member 28227]

@Cheesehead seems like there are a million insta reels to the effect "Well if you invest 200 a month for 30 years in your roth IRA, you'll be a millionaire"

My response, well maybe...

Inflation so what value is that?
Why aren't there more 'millionaires' if that's what it takes... boomers all stupid?

1976- Index fund
1997 - Roth IRA
1980- 401k invented
1989- FICO score invented

I feel like we may be getting a bit in front of our skis with projections about all of this, there has not yet been a 22 year old who has opened a roth and funded it till retirement... won't be for a long time.

 

[Mudranger1]

We looked at this house last week. It's the size of a condo, 2 bedroom, one of which you can barely fit a twin bed in and I had major concerns about the foundation and concrete. It's under contract for $590000, 105k over asking

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Littleton/7667-Grizzly-Ct-80125/home/35270178?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=instant_listings_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01MzM4NjM4OSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19pbnN0YW50XzE1JmE9Y2xpY2smcz1mYXZvcml0ZXMmdD12aWV3X2RldGFpbHMmZW1haWxfaWQ9NTMzODYzODlfMTY0NDYwNzQ1OV8yJnVwZGF0ZV90eXBlPTQmbGlzdGluZ19pZD0xNDQ2MDU3NzgmcHJvcGVydHlfaWQ9MzUyNzAxNzgmcG9zaXRpb25fbnVtYmVyPTA=

I'm GONNA BE RICH!!! Just wait until I leave in ~10 years before bursting this insanity

 

[Jwill]

I just made an offer on a piece of property beside my house. Should have just asked my agent to slap me and tell me to sit back down...

 

[BigHornRam]

I built this spec house in Bozeman in 1998 (and it's still standing!) . About 2000 sqft, 3 bd, 2 bt, sold it for $126,000, and made 20k. Wish I kept it.

 

[Pagosa]

Where do people see lumber prices going over the next year?

 

[Bigjay73]

Where do people see lumber prices going over the next year?

Straight lumber, or home depot lumber?

 

[BigHornRam]

Where do people see lumber prices going over the next year?

If @SAJ-99 decides to short it, to the .

 

[Cheesehead]

Re: the instareels, well, yes…my favorite are the ones that tell you what the effects are on your retirement account for chopping out that Starbucks latte. I feel @ElkFever2 could help here or perhaps we’ll wait a minute for the realest Dave Ramsey leg humper to please stand up.

In short (in long?), the answer is that yes, saving money (PMT) consistently in a retirement account from even a starting point of zero (PV) at an assumed rate (the million $ question of how much it will be … INT or RATE) will grow to a tidy sum eventually (FV). You then must handicap it by the inflation rate over the time period (N) to get to your real return, ie., how much you were truly paid to take on the investment risk. The equation today has substantially changed for most savers, especially younger ones, because: 1) the world is awash in money, and markets are much more efficient (in HT terms, fewer #honeyholes)…so S&P’s PE ratio of 25 means you are ‘getting’ a 4% return (100/25) on your money in terms of overly simplified cash flow (forget Price / Cash flow vs Price / Earnings for the moment)…so assets are expensive. So we won’t be getting that >10% long term S&P index fund return (or else it will only be on the back of high inflation so not real return).





Unfortunately, in addition to expensive assets, and to your point, inflation is now popping to now >7%, which is because we are moving closer to Jimmy Carter era inflation than anytime in recent period.



As for why aren’t there more millionaires within the boomer population, the answer there is: boomers are relatively wealthy but reports of 401ks/etc underestimate their wealth--they just don’t count all of it ****

For example: within their household wealth calculation you need to include the discounted cash flow of the present value of their pensions, which generally are twofold for many: company defined benefit schemes (millennials very rarely get that luxury) and also SS (which for us will exist but only after substantial raises in taxation to account for the forthcoming demographic collapse based on too few workers supporting too many retirees (see prior post). These get under-counted for boomers if you just look at Roths, 401ks, 403bs, etc.

As for inflation: yes, it is and for a while will continue to be worse than our medium term 2-3% we have had for decades…the pre- but especially post- COVID growth in money supply relative to GDP is about to kick CPI into crazy mode. So being a millionaire ain't what it used to be.



As for what to do about it…this is a bit dated, but prescient. About the only thing to do is: 1) lower expectations (and potentially read Stoic literature) 2) increase one's savings rate (note that the highest level of economic anxiety was in Japan, which is effectively 20-30 years ahead of ‘the West’ when it comes to the ratio of retirees supported by the average worker…but we will close the gap unless we have a systemic change in our view towards immigration), 3) selectively spend money now on experiences because they are about to get more expensive and degraded (#pointcreep in life, if you will)

I need to go make some mint tea.

Young people are saving more for retirement than Boomers and Generation X — and this is why

Young people are saving more than previous generations, according to a study, flipping the historical trend that saw older savers put the most money aside towards retirement.

www.cnbc.com

***And also, yes they are stupid if by stupid I can transliterate that to mean they are the up there as the most self-entitled and consumptive generation in US history. My provisional book title is titled, “Thanks for f***ing us over, Boomers.” It’s too multivariate for forums, but they were born with a geopolitical silver spoon up their ass and unique ability to exploit the natural world for their own consumption...

The difference between millennials and boomers is their great fear was MAD with a substantially weaker opponent (Soviets) but cool heads could prevail and nothing happened. Our MAD is with mother nature, and is in large part (substantial if not existential) already in motion, and will slowly make our next few decades heart-wrenching from a perspective of relative helplessness because the commons’ tragedy is already baked. I need to step off my soap box because it’s Friday.

 

[Cheesehead]

At least, this is my small, and slightly bitter theory about the world right meow.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Re: the instareels, well, yes…my favorite are the ones that tell you what the effects are on your retirement account for chopping out that Starbucks latte. I feel @ElkFever2 could help here or perhaps we’ll wait a minute for the realest Dave Ramsey leg humper to please stand up.

In short (in long?), the answer is that yes, saving money (PMT) consistently in a retirement account from even a starting point of zero (PV) at an assumed rate (the million $ question of how much it will be … INT or RATE) will grow to a tidy sum eventually (FV). You then must handicap it by the inflation rate over the time period (N) to get to your real return, ie., how much you were truly paid to take on the investment risk. The equation today has substantially changed for most savers, especially younger ones, because: 1) the world is awash in money, and markets are much more efficient (in HT terms, fewer #honeyholes)…so S&P’s PE ratio of 25 means you are ‘getting’ a 4% return (100/25) on your money in terms of overly simplified cash flow (forget Price / Cash flow vs Price / Earnings for the moment)…so assets are expensive. So we won’t be getting that >10% long term S&P index fund return (or else it will only be on the back of high inflation so not real return).

View attachment 212033



Unfortunately, in addition to expensive assets, and to your point, inflation is now popping to now >7%, which is because we are moving closer to Jimmy Carter era inflation than anytime in recent period.

View attachment 212034

As for why aren’t there more millionaires within the boomer population, the answer there is: boomers are relatively wealthy but reports of 401ks/etc underestimate their wealth--they just don’t count all of it ****

For example: within their household wealth calculation you need to include the discounted cash flow of the present value of their pensions, which generally are twofold for many: company defined benefit schemes (millennials very rarely get that luxury) and also SS (which for us will exist but only after substantial raises in taxation to account for the forthcoming demographic collapse based on too few workers supporting too many retirees (see prior post). These get under-counted for boomers if you just look at Roths, 401ks, 403bs, etc.

As for inflation: yes, it is and for a while will continue to be worse than our medium term 2-3% we have had for decades…the pre- but especially post- COVID growth in money supply relative to GDP is about to kick CPI into crazy mode. So being a millionaire ain't what it used to be.



As for what to do about it…this is a bit dated, but prescient. About the only thing to do is: 1) lower expectations (and potentially read Stoic literature) 2) increase one's savings rate (note that the highest level of economic anxiety was in Japan, which is effectively 20-30 years ahead of ‘the West’ when it comes to the ratio of retirees supported by the average worker…but we will close the gap unless we have a systemic change in our view towards immigration), 3) selectively spend money now on experiences because they are about to get more expensive and degraded (#pointcreep in life, if you will)

I need to go make some mint tea.

Young people are saving more for retirement than Boomers and Generation X — and this is why

Young people are saving more than previous generations, according to a study, flipping the historical trend that saw older savers put the most money aside towards retirement.

www.cnbc.com

***And also, yes they are stupid if by stupid I can transliterate that to mean they are the up there as the most self-entitled and consumptive generation in US history. My provisional book title is titled, “Thanks for f***ing us over, Boomers.” It’s too multivariate for forums, but they were born with a geopolitical silver spoon up their ass and unique ability to exploit the natural world for their own consumption...

The difference between millennials and boomers is their great fear was MADD with a substantially weaker opponent (Soviets) but cool heads could prevail and nothing happened. Our MADD is with mother nature, and is in large part (substantial if not existential) already in motion, and will slowly make our next few decades heart-wrenching from a perspective of relative helplessness because the commons’ tragedy is already baked. I need to step off my soap box because it’s Friday.

the TLDR

 

[BigHornRam]

Re: the instareels, well, yes…my favorite are the ones that tell you what the effects are on your retirement account for chopping out that Starbucks latte. I feel @ElkFever2 could help here or perhaps we’ll wait a minute for the realest Dave Ramsey leg humper to please stand up.

In short (in long?), the answer is that yes, saving money (PMT) consistently in a retirement account from even a starting point of zero (PV) at an assumed rate (the million $ question of how much it will be … INT or RATE) will grow to a tidy sum eventually (FV). You then must handicap it by the inflation rate over the time period (N) to get to your real return, ie., how much you were truly paid to take on the investment risk. The equation today has substantially changed for most savers, especially younger ones, because: 1) the world is awash in money, and markets are much more efficient (in HT terms, fewer #honeyholes)…so S&P’s PE ratio of 25 means you are ‘getting’ a 4% return (100/25) on your money in terms of overly simplified cash flow (forget Price / Cash flow vs Price / Earnings for the moment)…so assets are expensive. So we won’t be getting that >10% long term S&P index fund return (or else it will only be on the back of high inflation so not real return).

View attachment 212033



Unfortunately, in addition to expensive assets, and to your point, inflation is now popping to now >7%, which is because we are moving closer to Jimmy Carter era inflation than anytime in recent period.

View attachment 212034

As for why aren’t there more millionaires within the boomer population, the answer there is: boomers are relatively wealthy but reports of 401ks/etc underestimate their wealth--they just don’t count all of it ****

For example: within their household wealth calculation you need to include the discounted cash flow of the present value of their pensions, which generally are twofold for many: company defined benefit schemes (millennials very rarely get that luxury) and also SS (which for us will exist but only after substantial raises in taxation to account for the forthcoming demographic collapse based on too few workers supporting too many retirees (see prior post). These get under-counted for boomers if you just look at Roths, 401ks, 403bs, etc.

As for inflation: yes, it is and for a while will continue to be worse than our medium term 2-3% we have had for decades…the pre- but especially post- COVID growth in money supply relative to GDP is about to kick CPI into crazy mode. So being a millionaire ain't what it used to be.



As for what to do about it…this is a bit dated, but prescient. About the only thing to do is: 1) lower expectations (and potentially read Stoic literature) 2) increase one's savings rate (note that the highest level of economic anxiety was in Japan, which is effectively 20-30 years ahead of ‘the West’ when it comes to the ratio of retirees supported by the average worker…but we will close the gap unless we have a systemic change in our view towards immigration), 3) selectively spend money now on experiences because they are about to get more expensive and degraded (#pointcreep in life, if you will)

I need to go make some mint tea.

Young people are saving more for retirement than Boomers and Generation X — and this is why

Young people are saving more than previous generations, according to a study, flipping the historical trend that saw older savers put the most money aside towards retirement.

www.cnbc.com

***And also, yes they are stupid if by stupid I can transliterate that to mean they are the up there as the most self-entitled and consumptive generation in US history. My provisional book title is titled, “Thanks for f***ing us over, Boomers.” It’s too multivariate for forums, but they were born with a geopolitical silver spoon up their ass and unique ability to exploit the natural world for their own consumption...

The difference between millennials and boomers is their great fear was MADD with a substantially weaker opponent (Soviets) but cool heads could prevail and nothing happened. Our MADD is with mother nature, and is in large part (substantial if not existential) already in motion, and will slowly make our next few decades heart-wrenching from a perspective of relative helplessness because the commons’ tragedy is already baked. I need to step off my soap box because it’s Friday.

It's Friday and somebody's already baked!

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Re: the instareels, well, yes…my favorite are the ones that tell you what the effects are on your retirement account for chopping out that Starbucks latte. I feel @ElkFever2 could help here or perhaps we’ll wait a minute for the realest Dave Ramsey leg humper to please stand up.

In short (in long?), the answer is that yes, saving money (PMT) consistently in a retirement account from even a starting point of zero (PV) at an assumed rate (the million $ question of how much it will be … INT or RATE) will grow to a tidy sum eventually (FV). You then must handicap it by the inflation rate over the time period (N) to get to your real return, ie., how much you were truly paid to take on the investment risk. The equation today has substantially changed for most savers, especially younger ones, because: 1) the world is awash in money, and markets are much more efficient (in HT terms, fewer #honeyholes)…so S&P’s PE ratio of 25 means you are ‘getting’ a 4% return (100/25) on your money in terms of overly simplified cash flow (forget Price / Cash flow vs Price / Earnings for the moment)…so assets are expensive. So we won’t be getting that >10% long term S&P index fund return (or else it will only be on the back of high inflation so not real return).

View attachment 212033



Unfortunately, in addition to expensive assets, and to your point, inflation is now popping to now >7%, which is because we are moving closer to Jimmy Carter era inflation than anytime in recent period.

View attachment 212034

As for why aren’t there more millionaires within the boomer population, the answer there is: boomers are relatively wealthy but reports of 401ks/etc underestimate their wealth--they just don’t count all of it ****

For example: within their household wealth calculation you need to include the discounted cash flow of the present value of their pensions, which generally are twofold for many: company defined benefit schemes (millennials very rarely get that luxury) and also SS (which for us will exist but only after substantial raises in taxation to account for the forthcoming demographic collapse based on too few workers supporting too many retirees (see prior post). These get under-counted for boomers if you just look at Roths, 401ks, 403bs, etc.

As for inflation: yes, it is and for a while will continue to be worse than our medium term 2-3% we have had for decades…the pre- but especially post- COVID growth in money supply relative to GDP is about to kick CPI into crazy mode. So being a millionaire ain't what it used to be.



As for what to do about it…this is a bit dated, but prescient. About the only thing to do is: 1) lower expectations (and potentially read Stoic literature) 2) increase one's savings rate (note that the highest level of economic anxiety was in Japan, which is effectively 20-30 years ahead of ‘the West’ when it comes to the ratio of retirees supported by the average worker…but we will close the gap unless we have a systemic change in our view towards immigration), 3) selectively spend money now on experiences because they are about to get more expensive and degraded (#pointcreep in life, if you will)

I need to go make some mint tea.

Young people are saving more for retirement than Boomers and Generation X — and this is why

Young people are saving more than previous generations, according to a study, flipping the historical trend that saw older savers put the most money aside towards retirement.

www.cnbc.com

***And also, yes they are stupid if by stupid I can transliterate that to mean they are the up there as the most self-entitled and consumptive generation in US history. My provisional book title is titled, “Thanks for f***ing us over, Boomers.” It’s too multivariate for forums, but they were born with a geopolitical silver spoon up their ass and unique ability to exploit the natural world for their own consumption...

The difference between millennials and boomers is their great fear was MADD with a substantially weaker opponent (Soviets) but cool heads could prevail and nothing happened. Our MADD is with mother nature, and is in large part (substantial if not existential) already in motion, and will slowly make our next few decades heart-wrenching from a perspective of relative helplessness because the commons’ tragedy is already baked. I need to step off my soap box because it’s Friday.

probably need to add a paragraph about income stagnation

Had a fun conversation with a boomer MD about how residents now have it so easy now with their 58k salaries because back is his day 1977 he only got paid 18k.