Im bowing out

[BigHornRam]

In 3 years when we are ready to move to Wyoming, and if construction costs are the same or worse, we may be pitching a wall tent in the bean field to live.

 

[BigHornRam]

I'm too conservative financially, but I wouldn't build either right now. Lumber is on the way up, availability of all kinds of building products is volatile, labor is messed up, etc. If starting right now I would expect cost increases to continue as the project moves along. Timelines are really hard to stick with as well, for instance, I just got some windows in that I waited 3 1/2 months on. We are also at the mercy of subcontractors to a high degree right now.
We bought an old house and 10 acres in 2018. I'm really glad we did.

I've heard appliances and garage doors are up to 10 months out. Trusses are impossible to get in some areas and they are now hand framing roofs like the old days.

 

[npaden]

Can you tell all your boomer buddies building in CO that (I told all my boomer buddies, but they just make fun of me for drinking lacroix)

All my mom's friends have decided it's the exact right time to move, and build in Delta county... and build bigger, cause you know when your in your late 60s you need all the extra space you can get.

I know that you can afford the bigger nicer houses when you are older, but I really don't understand why you actually want to spend that money on one. One of my co-workers just had a 4,500 square foot custom home built AFTER all his kids were grown and out of the house. Just the 2 of them, they don't really entertain or anything. I know it is nice to have room for the grandkids, etc. the 2 or 3 times a year they come to visit but it just doesn't make sense.

This coming from a guy that currently owns 235 acres of property and is looking for more land to buy for recreational purposes...

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I know that you can afford the bigger nicer houses when you are older, but I really don't understand why you actually want to spend that money on one. I know it is nice to have room for the grandkids, etc. the 2 or 3 times a year they come to visit but it just doesn't make sense.

This coming from a guy that currently owns 235 acres of property and is looking for more land to buy for recreational purposes...

See buying acreage and a smaller 1 level house makes a ton of sense to me.

 

[SAJ-99]

My argument is that they say this is the market, they are targeting the red, undervalued single family homes and or just most reasonably priced.

Then within this chunk they are buying 30% of that market. So likely they make up 5% of home sales or less but they make up enough of the right kinds of sales, to totally f- the middle class first time home buyer.

View attachment 211792


Here is my beef too, a company like blackrock comes in and outcompetes first time home buyers for property. Say in the $200k range. That first time home buyer with a 30 year mortgage would be paying like $1000 a month (illustrative) but instead they can't find anything to buy and then end up renting from blackrock for $1750 a month.

So sure more housing, but more inventory doesn't do crap if you don't mandate that it can only be purchased as primary housing.

Agree. It certainly hurts a certain part of the market, like new buyers especially. They target that because there is a limited market for renter of a $1.5m home. But there are people on this site that own homes and rental units. Just curious, is it ok for them but not for Blackrock? I think there should be legislation to prevent a lot of stuff like this. If I were King, I can fix the housing market in 15minutes. But a lot of people, ok everyone, is going to be pissed off.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Agree. It certainly hurts a certain part of the market, like new buyers especially. They target that because there is a limited market for renter of a $1.5m home. But there are people on this site that own homes and rental units. Just curious, is it ok for them but not for Blackrock? I think there should be legislation to prevent a lot of stuff like this. If I were King, I can fix the housing market in 15minutes. But a lot of people, ok everyone, is going to be pissed off.

There is some nuance to it for sure, but my worst rental experiences were always with management companies (the kind with out of state corporate offices). I've had great experiences renting from folks.

Generally speaking I think anytime people are seen as commodities in a capitalist system you run into problems.

 

[Salmonchaser]

I paid less for a five year old house on 20 acres in 1980 than I paid for a New Ford truck last year. I’d hate to be a young man right now.....

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I paid less for a five year old house on 20 acres in 1980 than I paid for a New Ford truck last year. I’d hate to be a young man right now.....

but you made $15,000 back then and $75k now right...
...
...

right

...

F%@$K

 

[BackofBeyond]

I've been in residential construction my entire career. This isn't going to end well.

So glad I learned my lesson and got out in 2008.

 

[BigHornRam]

So glad I learned my lesson and got out in 2008.

Well I'm a slow learner.

 

[Salmonchaser]

but you made $15,000 back then and $75k now right...
...
...

right

...

F%@$K

Based on what I paid for the house then the net present value of the property is less than half what it recently sold for, that’s what leaves me thankful I’m not in the buying mode.

 

[BackofBeyond]

Well I'm a slow learner.

I’m still in construction, just now on the commercial side. Lows aren’t as low, and highs aren’t quite as high.

It was a good move for me.

 

[SO7mm]

These stories are insane and depressing. My mind drifts to my kids, and how the hell Montanans just starting out will be able to compete. They won't, and it is getting to a point that whether one is starting out, or well along their way, they won't.

It's a tough deal but I can't imagine it slowing down for a long time. I have kids in 3rd and 6th grade and I'm hoping they go to college somewhere in the mountain west and want to stay there so we can follow them. A lot of people with

You can waive the contingency if you have cash to make up the difference. The bank will be fine. This isn't 2006. Banks aren't lending to people that make $50k/yr for a $600k house with no downpayment then selling the loan to Wall street who then layers it into 3 different tranches of CDS and various derivatives. Today is not that.

What is massive to you. This has been covered pretty heavily in press. I highly doubt it has much impact and you can't say firms like Blackrock are price insensitive buyers. they know what the property is worth and don't overpay.

BlackRock Is Not Ruining the U.S. Housing Market

The real villain isn’t a faceless Wall Street Goliath; it’s your neighbors and local governments stopping the construction of new units.

www.theatlantic.com

There's a developer that's been trying to build 300 or so houses on a ridge behind my house. The ridge is between two other developed portions of town and is nothing special. We have a lot of regional parks around for hiking and biking already. The community is so against building on that piece that the city is now putting up a ballot measure to buy the parcel for $19.5 million over thirty years for a total of $30 million. They can't even begin to take care of the parks they own now so I'm not sure what this will do. Mean while I'm on month 15 trying to get a permit to build a spec house. It's hard to overstate the impact of the communities and city departments on the shortage.

 

[RobertD]

I want to buy a house within the next year or so but I worry about timing it wrong. (I know, don't try to time it.)

I'm lucky to live in a pretty rural area down south, but honestly my hometown is a popular place between wealthy folks wanting to be in the "plantation region" and Tallahassee folks who will take an hour commute to be away from Tallahassee. So even in a town of 20,000~ there is some price inflation that can be kinda shocking.

 

[dirtclod Az.]

I managed sawmills for 20 years, and had to survive through all the downturns in the housing market. There are always cycles, and homebuilding will slow down. Personally, I feel like this cycle will start running out of steam this year, and then really tank by next year. Now is not a good time to buy a house, in my opinion.

IS THIS A HUNTING FORUM!!!?

 

[LopeHunter]

I think it means that a cash buyer will swoop in and just pay the difference. I think this will happen more as people who don't understand the borrowing process just bid whatever to win. That client clearly didn't understand that the purchase price has to be supported by other sales in the area. But, once a few cash buyers come in and pay over appraised value those comps will be in place.

Renting a home in our neighborhood costs $8K/month. Yes, around $100K a year. Wow. We are definitely not starter homes, though, so 100% cash purchase offers are common with a mix of those becoming primary residences and 2nd homes and rental or AirBnB properties. A common metric is rent/month is around 1% of the home's market price if sold. Our home value is 25% above that metric so appears we have overheated home values.

14 months ago, I had to toss $70K into the purchase of our home as the appraisal came in too low for 80/20 financing. We subsequently sold our home 11 miles from this one and now have no mortgage. Appraisals often are lagging purchase offers in a rising market which is not a new development in our region. This gap does push cash-poor prospective buyers down-market though they may otherwise be able to handle the cash flow needs if the appraisal came in at least at the purchase offer thus could get sufficient financing.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Borrowing half a million on a house! I don't care what the interest is, you still have to pay the principle back.

If you get a decent house in a decent location at a half decent price, it is an 80% leveraged, 20-35% tax subsidized, investment. Folks shouldn’t over borrow for housing, but they also shouldn’t under borrow either.

 

[VikingsGuy]

IS THIS A HUNTING FORUM!!!?

The most worthless posts on HT are, “I am 5 pages into this thread and I think this topic is stupid so I will take another minute of my time to post that this thread is a waste of time.” If it doesn’t interest you, don’t read, don’t follow, don’t post. Life is short folks, why worry about what other people want to talk about.

 

[LopeHunter]

I know that you can afford the bigger nicer houses when you are older, but I really don't understand why you actually want to spend that money on one. One of my co-workers just had a 4,500 square foot custom home built AFTER all his kids were grown and out of the house. Just the 2 of them, they don't really entertain or anything. I know it is nice to have room for the grandkids, etc. the 2 or 3 times a year they come to visit but it just doesn't make sense.

This coming from a guy that currently owns 235 acres of property and is looking for more land to buy for recreational purposes...

My wife retired and wanted to be walking distance of our son, DIL and 2 grandkids. We now own the largest house of our lives as empty-nesters though are now a two minute walk to visit the grandkids. There are no small homes within a short walking distance where my son lives. Otherwise, 2 bedrooms with 1200 square feet is plenty roomy for me. On the plus side, I have room to hang my elk shoulder mount and the antlers are not touching the ceiling nor is the chest just off the floor.

 

[BigHornRam]

If you get a decent house in a decent location at a half decent price, it is an 80% leveraged, 20-35% tax subsidized, investment. Folks shouldn’t over borrow for housing, but they also shouldn’t under borrow either.

Half decent price is subjective. I haven't seen a half decent price in a while. Good advice as long as you keep your job or business.