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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...
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What the what! Could the experts have been wrong? Cue the dramatic music
 
LWC55 said:
View attachment 132952

This is his most recent (this morning) US Projection. It includes US + NY. NY numbers are so different from other state's numbers that he is looking at them separately. This has been previously discussed and nothing is being hidden. Dr. Frank has been trying to decide how to most accurately model outlier, NY and the rest of the US at the same time. I'll post his model discussion below for everyone to read.

Covid-19 "USA Deaths Tracking with NY"

This graph is really revealing. And more importantly, it confirms an hypothesis we had a couple days ago.

I have changed nothing about any of the models. Think of this as merely "accounting." This is the first time I have ever looked at this plot, because I just made it. I've been stewing over the right way to do this for a couple days, and it was the first thought on my mind when I woke up. (The power of the subconscious mind...)

Let me walk you through it. I usually don't like putting so many traces on a single graph for public viewing. It scares people off. But it is worth it, trust me. Take your time, digest each plot. Look at the scale for it, and don't move on until you get it intuitively.

Let's start with the axes. The left vertical axis is for all "Deaths/day" curves, the right vertical axis is for the two "sigmoids," or total death curves that finish into it. (Near 1400 and 2900.)

Let's start with the red dashed plot with the red dots, USA Reported deaths per day. The scale for this is in red, on the left. It is real data, so it is noisy. But it is reality. (Always start with the DATA!!)

The pink shaded line that is tracking the red-dots-curve is the sum of my original projection for the whole USA (deaths/day) plus the model predictions for NY (deaths/day). This "sum of models" is closely tracking what we are **actually** observing. (It is the sum of the light gray and blue peaks.)

Next, the solid dark gray line is my original model death tally estimate for the whole country (finishing on the right, near 1400 total death tally). The light gray peak is the cases/day for that model (use left scale).

The light blue curve is the peak corresponding to the deaths/day predicted by our NY model.

When you add the original model to the NY model, you get the dark red plot, finishing just under 3,000 total deaths.

The dark red dots and dashed curve is the total reported death tally for the entire US (actual data). Note the "inflection point" in the curve corresponding to when the NY death peak starts growing and the trace begins diverging from my earlier estimate. (This is exactly what a "secondary infection looks like in other countries, eg Italy.)

I am not saying NY is a secondary infection. I'm saying, when you consider it separately *and* together, this approach tells you a lot about what is going on in our country.

I will update this graph every day for a while. I might simplify it too... but there is so much good information in here, I don't want to leave anything out. I will think on it.

What I love about this, is that we hypothesized a couple of days ago that this way of thinking about the country would match the data... AND IT DOES. An a priori hypothesis confirmed, making us more confident in our models. This is the scientific method.
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I know you are infatuated with this guy.

If he was being taken seriously, some network would be trumpeting (hey an unintended pun) him,, certainly Fox News would. He has yesterday's deaths wrong, they were north of 200, not under. His forecast for maximum deaths per day, by the graph you linked is 175ish. He would be the only guy out there thinking deaths per day are about to decline.

His forecast of total deaths is wrong by orders of magnitude. The unknown is how many orders of magnitude he is wrong. I hope it is by only one order of magnitude.
 
Handlebar said:
How did you find out about this gentleman? Also do you know anything of his track record (for lack of a better term). Although I am work in natural resources my understanding of modeling is woefully thin. I have been trying to immerse myself with this type of information. Thanks for getting me started.
On a side note it seems that Imperial college is revising guidance from their early model.
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@CiK actually brought him up in post# 113. I missed it and didn't find it until he did it again in post #1,066
 


Cliff notes:

Why testing matters, promises from a week ago broken, why there is good reason to think there are political motivations at play for failing at granting emergency authorization in regards to testing. All that said, you cannot hide death, time in the ICU, and hospitalizations, and testing would inform rates. We have to get the denominator to understand the type of virus we are up against. New York will likely be overrun soon.
 
406dn said:
I know you are infatuated with this guy.

If he was being taken seriously, some network would be trumpeting (hey an unintended pun) him,, certainly Fox News would. He has yesterday's deaths wrong, they were north of 200, not under. His forecast for maximum deaths per day, by the graph you linked is 175ish. He would be the only guy out there thinking deaths per day are about to decline.

His forecast of total deaths is wrong by orders of magnitude. The unknown is how many orders of magnitude he is wrong. I hope it is by only one order of magnitude.
Click to expand...
The red dots are the actual US deaths. Like I said before. I'll post the expert models I have confidence in. You do the same and we will see which ones are closer. I'll just note that to date I haven't seen any expert numbers, models, predictions from you. But if you find better info or predictions, I wish you would share them.
 
Trial153 alluded to this above. I didn't vet the source so don't shoot the messenger if it isn't 100%. But this guy's model was a big part of a lot of measures the various governments have taken.

www.dailywire.com

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...
www.dailywire.com www.dailywire.com

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
 
"Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000".

One may wonder what the additive mortality statistic will be - due to the loss of treatment for folks with other issues - while medical facilities operate at capacity or over. America is a society of many many unhealthy folks, receiving care for a myriad of medical issues. And geriatric care.....
 
LWC55 said:
The red dots are the actual US deaths. Like I said before. I'll post the expert models I have confidence in. You do the same and we will see which ones are closer. I'll just note that to date I haven't seen any expert numbers, models, predictions from you. But if you find better info or predictions, I wish you would share them.
Click to expand...

I knew the red dots were the actual deaths reported for a day. His graph shows deaths declining yesterday. They increased to the 250ish range. His model shows that there would not be a single day with deaths over 200. The last two days and likely today, exceed that number.

I am looking at the raw data for our country, mostly. My brother is onto modeling this pandemic. He has a PHD in physical chemistry. He can crunch numbers with the best of them. He thinks it looks a lot worse than the guy you keep posting. What my brother would really like to know is what percentage of actual cases are captured by the confirmed test. As he told me this morning, it would be great news if we only KNEW about a small number of the actual cases. If there were large numbers of unconfirmed cases, the virus will bang up against herd immunity more quickly.
 
406dn said:
I knew the red dots were the actual deaths reported for a day. His graph shows deaths declining yesterday. They increased to the 250ish range. His model shows that there would not be a single day with deaths over 200. The last two days and likely today, exceed that number.

I am looking at the raw data for our country, mostly. My brother is onto modeling this pandemic. He has a PHD in physical chemistry. He can crunch numbers with the best of them. He thinks it looks a lot worse than the guy you keep posting. What my brother would really like to know is what percentage of actual cases are captured by the confirmed test. As he told me this morning, it would be great news if we only KNEW about a small number of the actual cases. If there were large numbers of unconfirmed cases, the virus will bang up against herd immunity more quickly.
Click to expand...

I'm not going to argue the intricacies of the model. I'm not a math expert as I've said before. Dr. Frank is and he discusses all of his models in detail on FB. If you want to dispute them, feel free do so with the maker. I'm posting them because they are the best models I have seen and for people to see and draw their own conclusions.

Since your brother is modeling this pandemic, do you think he would be willing to let you post up some of his models? What are his predictions for today, tomorrow, this week, next week? I really would like to see how others compare. But Dr. Frank is one of the only ones, at least that I can find, that is posting up real time, updated daily, prediction models. Most experts to this point haven't been willing to stick their neck out there. It will be really clear and folks will make revisionist history when all is said and done. Dr. Frank's data is on FB from as far back as February (likely further but I haven't looked back further) looking at the other countries. Wish our government would be as transparent.
 
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Since I can’t find the data I want for Italy, I’ll settle for the U.K. they are at 9 deaths per million right now. We are at 2/M. They aren’t nearly as far along in this as Italy, but they are arguably at least a few days farther down the path than we are. Their normal low for weekly all cause deaths is around 8000. The spike they experienced in the 2017/18 flu season was about 13,000/week. For this to be considered worse than the 2017/18 flu season the U.K. would have to get above 715/day. 716 wouldn’t make me think this was significantly worse than a bad flu season. 1000 might. Particularly if it lasted many weeks. Currently, I do not see a country that has provably experienced more deaths than in bad flu years. If someone can actually post a factual number that proves the opposite, I’ll accept it.

If someone can post that same data for NY I’d accept that as well.

Assuming the valleys are 12mo apart, and the flue season is usually 4-5, I would estimate that the peak period in 2017/18 lasted a 3-6 weeks. The actual dates are probably in the same document. So 715/day in the U.K. for a month would not be cause for alarm.

Italy has 96% the population of the U.K., so the same number for Italy would be 4795 deaths/week above the baseline.
 

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JohnCushman said:
It took 9 days in isolation to get my niece's test results back, that luckily came back negative....but they are keeping her in isolation and retesting her because she might have gotten a false negative since she is actually getting physically worse by the day. But, come on....9 friggin days for results?
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Keeping her in my prayers with all the others.
 
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