COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[Tradewind]

Posting a 50 line supposedly science-based item that has literally a dozen science-based errors does not make it other users' burden to go through and write a 30 line correction for your benefit. Other than reminding us to flatten the curve, this post adds nothing to this thread. And it is quicker to post the "error warning" than to fix and explain all the errors - hence I had time to warn those that actually want to use facts to understand - and I may or may not have time to spend much more time correcting all the errors. If you posted the world was flat, I might just reply - "no" - and not write a thesis explaining my objection.

Ah, I see. You are above having to explain to us, other than having to merely say a post is wrong. and we shall take your word for it.
Pardon me if i do not wait by the computer for whenever you decide to grace us with an explanation... Carry on

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Yellowstone, Grand Teton are off limits

Northwest Wyoming’s primary economic engines — the national parks — have been closed indefinitely to stem the spread of COVID-19.

www.jhnewsandguide.com

 

[LWC55]

The death toll has doubled every 7 days on average since February 25th. If this rate continues, 300,000 people will be dead within 4 weeks.

Yep, and based on this model that 7 day doubling will likely continue until the close to the worldwide peak around 4/9.



He also predicts the peak of US cases to be between 15-20,000 per day on 3/28 and then decline pretty dramatically. That is not too far away. So we should be able to tell if these models are a better predictor than the media....in pretty short order

 

[JLS]

Yep, and based on this model that 7 day doubling will likely continue until the close to the worldwide peak around 4/9.

View attachment 132551

He also predicts the peak of US cases to be between 15-20,000 per day on 3/28 and then decline pretty dramatically. That is not too far away. So we should be able to tell if these models are a better predictor than the media....in pretty short order

View attachment 132554

I hope to hell he's right.

 

[ImBillT]

The death toll has doubled every 7 days on average since February 25th. If this rate continues, 300,000 people will be dead within 4 weeks.

When every person the virus contacts is naive, it doubles rapidly. As the percentage of people it contacts who are immune increases then it doubles more slowly.

I don’t know if four more weeks at that rate is right or wrong, but it will eventually drop completely on its own.

Is your 300,000 number in the US or worldwide? Worldwide 500,000 flu related deaths/year is not uncommon.

 

[LWC55]

Couple of interesting articles if you have a few minutes. One from an economist:

William Watson: Herd mentality versus herd immunity and the coronavirus

How to weigh the trade-off between what’s best for a population’s physical health and what’s best for its material well-being?

nationalpost.com

One from a Yale Epidemiologist

Opinion | Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? (Published 2020)

There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

 

[JLS]

Trump wants ‘the country opened,’ but easing coronavirus restrictions now would be disastrous, experts say

 

[406dn]

I told you I'm a simple man. But the mortality rate is not a guess. It is simple math. Same simple math the WHO used to start this whole panic. My math is just going off of more days of testing in NY. Either dispute it with facts or move on.

I've disputed it with facts ad nauseam. First every day new test results are reported,, they are not the current number. There is lag time between when the test is administered and when you know the result. I'd point you to Rand Paul as an example.

Then your numerator is incomplete and understates what the death rate is.

The deaths are the final result to come in. They come in perhaps ten to thirty days after a case is known.

 

[LWC55]

I've disputed it with facts ad nauseam. First every day new test results are reported,, they are not the current number. There is lag time between when the test is administered and when you know the result. I'd point you to Rand Paul as an example.

Then your numerator is incomplete and understates what the death rate is.

The deaths are the final result to come in. They come in perhaps ten to thirty days after a case is known.

I’ve posted the definition, today’s numbers, and the calculations. Not my definition, not my numbers, not my calculation. Those come from the CDC and WHO. The numbers will continue to change every day and are not final numbers. They are from today. I can’t help you any further. Please go find someone else to troll.

 

[Irrelevant]

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients

“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”

www.propublica.org

"
About This Story
The medical details in this story were vetted by an infectious disease doctor, a cardiologist and an internist at three different hospitals. All of the information about ARDS, the condition that the respiratory therapist describes, was fact-checked against peer-reviewed articles and UpToDate, a resource for physicians to check current standards in care, clinical features, and expected complications and outcomes.
"
Now that article will scare you. Now, I understand that one describing pancreatic cancer would do the same, or ebola. But I can't get those at the grocery store.

 

[CiK]

I hope to hell he's right.

It’s only right if containment works, IMO. Those infected “escaping” NYC is not containment.

Build a barrier around that city and let God sort it out......again, IMO.

 

[ImBillT]

It’s only right if containment works, IMO. Those infected “escaping” NYC is not containment.

Build a barrier around that city and let God sort it out......again, IMO.

It’s hard to say for sure, but containment doesn’t seem to have done much for Italy.

 

[SAJ-99]

It’s only right if containment works, IMO. Those infected “escaping” NYC is not containment.

Build a barrier around that city and let God sort it out......again, IMO.

Just got a message saying that patient showed up in ER in city X and told Dr they tested positive for Cv-19 in City Y 4 days ago. Use your imagination to fill in the details. They are as bad as you would think.

 

[ImBillT]

Just got a message saying that patient showed up in ER in city X and told Dr they tested positive for Cv-19 in City Y 4 days ago. Use your imagination to fill in the details. They are as bad as you would think.

No matter how skeptical I am(and I’m still not claiming to be certain one way or the other), the idea that someone with a positive test would go galavanting around after the fact is still mind boggling.

 

[CiK]

It’s hard to say for sure, but containment doesn’t seem to have done much for Italy.

Containment worked in China if we believe their numbers. I also just read that tests sent from China to Czech Republic saw 80% failure rate. So who knows the real number with all the stupid flying around.

Wish I bought more ammo and TP.

 

[JLS]

Why the West may be misinterpreting Wuhan’s coronavirus progress — The Wall Street Journal

General lockdowns aren’t enough, experts say. What really turned the tide was a shift to a more aggressive and systematic quarantine regime whereby suspected or mild cases were sent to makeshift hospitals and temporary quarantine centers.

apple.news

 

[ImBillT]

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients

“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”

www.propublica.org

"
About This Story
The medical details in this story were vetted by an infectious disease doctor, a cardiologist and an internist at three different hospitals. All of the information about ARDS, the condition that the respiratory therapist describes, was fact-checked against peer-reviewed articles and UpToDate, a resource for physicians to check current standards in care, clinical features, and expected complications and outcomes.
"
Now that article will scare you. Now, I understand that one describing pancreatic cancer would do the same, or ebola. But I can't get those at the grocery store.

Read it a few days ago. Definitely scary. You don’t want to go into ARDS. I know I don’t.

Interestingly, it’s written as if she saw quite a few and had a ton of patients. The article was published at 5am on March 21st. The evening of March 20th the entire state of LA had only 12 covid-19 deaths, and their cases were spread over the entire state, so you know they weren’t all in one hospital. Unfortunately they don’t show a hospitalized number until the 24th, and that number is 271 across the entire state. Probably not all in the ICU, just hospitalized.

The map was published at 5:30 pm March 20th, but the death count got updated later.

 

[Trial153]

Why the West may be misinterpreting Wuhan’s coronavirus progress — The Wall Street Journal

General lockdowns aren’t enough, experts say. What really turned the tide was a shift to a more aggressive and systematic quarantine regime whereby suspected or mild cases were sent to makeshift hospitals and temporary quarantine centers.

apple.news

This is the the least optimistic piece I've seen in a while. Only because we are expecting similar results to china in a shorter amount of time and with no where near similar levels of intervention.

 

[elkduds]

Soon enough it won't matter who is right. Only who is left.

 

[ImBillT]

Numbers this evening are depressing.