This whole article and mind set is stupid, selfish and irresponsible. All things and opinions aside the one fact no one can argue is our health care system is not equipped to handle what will happen if this above theory is implemented. Again people, ignore all you want but if you think you know better I encourage you to contact anyone you know actually working in the health care system and get first hand facts about how the place they work for is equipped to handle a mass infection. Again, the social distancing is to flatten the curve so hospitals can get preparedSomething I am thinking about. Not meant to generate argument:
I am already seeing quite a few people arguing that we should just expose those who aren't in the "at risk" population, let herd immunity develop, and then when the "at risk" folks enter back into the world the virus won't exist in the population in a high enough prevalence for it to be a major concern. This is from Tyler Cowen's blog:
"Herd immunity," time consistency, and the epidemic yoyo - Marginal REVOLUTION
Saloni has long and detailed arguments against herd immunity. Here is Caplan on Hanson. Here is Kling on Hanson. Here is the Taleb critique. Here is the underlying Imperial College paper everyone is talking about. The bottom line is that “locking everyone up to bend the hospital admissions...marginalrevolution.com
Let’s say we expose lots of people to the virus rather quickly, to build up herd immunity. Furthermore, we would let commerce and gdp continue to thrive.
Even if that were the very best policy on utilitarian grounds, it might not be time consistent. Once the hospitals start looking like Lombardy, we don’t say “tough tiddlywinks, hail Jeremy Bentham!” Instead we crumble like the complacent softies you always knew we were. We institute quarantines and social distancing and shutdowns and end up with the worst of both worlds.
Alternatively, let’s say we start off being really strict with shutdowns, quarantines, and social distancing. Super-strict, everything closed. For how long can we tolerate the bankruptcies, the unemployment, and the cabin fever? At what point do the small businesspeople, one way or another, violate the orders and resume some form of commercial activity? What about “mitigation fatigue“?
Again, I fear we might switch course and, again, end up with the worst of both worlds. We would take a big hit to gdp but not really stop the spread of the virus.
I also can imagine that we keep switching back and forth. The epidemic yoyo. Because in fact we find none of the scenarios tolerable. Because they are not.
A couple reasons to be skeptical of the "just get herd immunity over with" approach comes from Arnold Kling. http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/herd-immunity-and-exposure-policy/
Two reasons to hesitate about doing this. One is that it is not certain that people who have had the virus are immune. There are anecdotes about people re-acquiring the disease. Perhaps there are multiple strains, rather than “the” virus.
A second reason to hesitate is the high rate of death among health care providers, many of whom are young with healthy immune systems. This suggests that there are some other factors that affect risk, and you want to know more about those other factors before you try this approach.
It is true that we are early on in this, but I think it is also true that this, whatever this is, is not sustainable for months on end, and months on end is what I am more frequently reading this may require. Mainly I am thinking of economic reasons. From a utilitarian perspective there will come a point where the economic ruin of tens of millions, or a hundred million, will be viewed as worse than the deaths of 2 million. We are still trying to stave off a wave that could overwhelm our medical system. Seeing as how we reacted so slowly, and the draconian measures that have worked in places like China are off the table for us, the long game is hard to envision.
I don't know the answer, but I anticipate very tough decisions will have to be made within a few weeks.
COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.
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Even more perplexing is when they say ....but that person was just in another country... like the virus transmitted differently there than here.
Nameless Range
Well-known member
Agree with everything you say. I'm married to an RN who is spending her time screening people at the hospital for Covid-19. The increased rates of death and infection for health care workers is frightening and I am worried about her.
The thought I am sharing there, is that there is more info every day that flattening the curve may take many months. It's not clear how we will sustain that. Again, not an endorsement of any line of thought. I just think this will only become more complicated.
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Absolutely, it's a messy world out there literally and figuratively. Unless you've experienced it it's hard to understand.
huntid73
Active member
For folks in the Boise and Ketchum areas: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241274011.html
St. Lukes is offering drive-up testing now
St. Lukes is offering drive-up testing now
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I hear you. She is a great kid who is kind and helpful to all those in need - she absolutely doesn't want to hurt others and realizes this is bigger than herself. But as a 14 yr old she suffers from "Fear of Missing Out" and other parents are letting their kids run all over town like its summer break. She definitely gets it, and will be fine, but sometimes it's good for kids to hear the perspectives of others who aren't mom and dad.
I'm an Italian mom under coronavirus lockdown. Here's what I wish I had done differently before things got bad.
Katherine Wilson, a mom of two in Rome, said she wished Italians had listened to warnings about the coronavirus before the situation turned dire.www.google.com
Basically tell her not to be selfish if it gets to that point. They need to understand this is not about them.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
MN has now confirmed at least 4 cases of intra-state transmission. I don't know about ND. I read those types of statements that literally there is no evidence. That is not the same as denying it isn't very likely to be the case. The mix of cautious and specific science-speak and generalized media-speak is making this trickier than ever.
jryoung
Well-known member
Too many other questions to answer with that data, you'd need to know the current rate of infection and what is the rest of the world seeing. What actions seem to be working, what actions aren't. How has our medical system adapted? Could they handle a non flattened curve if another outbreak were to come. Has the virus mutated, are we equipped to handle it?
There are just so many moving parts here, from the virus itself, global action, system capacity, it can't be simplified.
This seems strange to me ...
www.google.com
6 relatives hospitalized after NJ woman dies of coronavirus
Six relatives of a New Jersey woman who died from coronavirus have been infected with the life-threatening disease, according to a new report. Five family members of Rita Fusco-Jackson, a religion …
www.google.com
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I think the big gap is knowing if immunity is conferred. If it was certain, there is some logic (I am not advocating just saying it is not irrational) that switching to a "everyone over 60 or with pre-existing condition is locked down, the rest can return to normal" approach would limit infections, deaths and economic consequences more than generalized lock down as it would reduce the "second spike" which could be greater than the current one. But since we don't know that immunity is conferred, then to go this way now would be unconscionable in my opinion.
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America must confront 'how we're going to live with' coronavirus, disease specialist says
The rapid spread of the virus across the country have prompted local and state officials to roll out stringent mitigation policies.
Discussion with one of the leading experts in infectious disease - Michael Osterholm. I think it is worth the 4 to 5 minute listen. He discusses how we are going to have to learn to live with the disease for the next 18 months until a vaccine is developed. I think we can all agree that we can't all isolate ourselves and the world for that long. So we need to start discussing options.
huronmtns
Well-known member
Personally, I only take medical profession information into consideration. The proper use of vocabulary and definitions at the time of the statement is about as accurate as it can get at that location. General media does not usually use quoted language in a proper context or miss-interprets specific language that they are trying to convey. Looking at the source of information is important for reliable solid information at the given time of the communication release. I would eliminate the general media unless they are using quoted reference material to reduce the possible confusion. Yes this can get tricky with the volume of material, social changes, and attention, this virus is driving.
if you’re that worried about contacting other people and why were you outside in the first place?
Yes, they say "evidence". But why do they say that? It isn't like it will not spread here. I don't understand what they are trying to say. Almost seems counterproductive like you can still lick doorknobs because we don't have evidence it is spreading here. Even though it is spreading everywhere else.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Social distancing does not require indoor isolation. In fact folks should be in their garages, driveways, yards and remote woods. Good for general health and mental well being.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Scientists benefit from understanding transmission routes. There are changes in virus virility and infectiousness over time, there are genetic branches/strain forming over time. Lot's of reasons for a scientist to differentiate between a sick patient direct from Wuhann and a sick patient who got if from their neighbor. But then this specific choice of language gets picked up by the media and leads to confusion or questions like yours.
Sounds risky to me.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
My MIL in La Crosse has symptoms and has been tested Monday, and should have results back today. Hope it comes back negative, she's over 80. She had a fever, but that has broke. So far only one in ten tests have come back positive to date, so I remain optimistic.
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ImBillT
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I’d like a graph of total deaths per day in Italy from Oct 15th-March 15th over the last ten years. As far as I can tell, it’s not uncommon for Italy to have 600k deaths per year in a bad year. That’s 1650/day on average. I would expect that a very high percentage of those are elderly people, in the winter, from a lower respiratory disease. I would like to know how many there are on peak days in the winter most years.
I’m confident that covid-19 is real and new, and deadly to people with the usual risk factors. I’m not confident that it’s unusual. It may be. I’m not confident that it isn’t. Just starting to wonder.
Don’t let China buy our stock market dip.
I’m confident that covid-19 is real and new, and deadly to people with the usual risk factors. I’m not confident that it’s unusual. It may be. I’m not confident that it isn’t. Just starting to wonder.
Don’t let China buy our stock market dip.
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