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COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

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My own personal analysis of this situation....
-As of this morning, March 18, the US has identified roughly 6500 cases.
-March 7, Italy had roughly 5900 cases
-Today, Italy has roughly 31,500 cases
-It takes 3-14 days for symptoms to show

Based on what I'm seeing on the news with spring breakers around the country and people going about their business where I live, the US will be in the same position as Italy in approximately 10-14 days regardless of if a full lock down were to be implemented today. I hope I'm wrong but be prepared for full freak out in the US and shortage of beds. It's going to get western within two weeks.

Edit - This is in reference to cases...not deaths. Hopefully we don't follow that same path.
 
Last edited:
ImBillT said:
I’d like a graph of total deaths per day in Italy from Oct 15th-March 15th over the last ten years. As far as I can tell, it’s not uncommon for Italy to have 60k deaths per year in a bad year. That’s 165/day on average. I would expect that a very high percentage of those are elderly people, in the winter, from a lower respiratory disease. I would like to know if 360/day on peak days in the winter happens on most years.

I’m confident that covid-19 is real and new, and deadly to people with the usual risk factors. I’m not confident that it’s unusual. It may be. I’m not confident that it isn’t. Just starting to wonder.

Don’t let China buy our stock market dip.
Click to expand...
This is from the link below:

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day; the 350 or so extra deaths per day over the last couple of days (if this worldometers.info data is correct) are about 20%.

reason.com

Italian Daily Death Rate Up 20% Because of Coronavirus, Lombardy Up About 80%

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day;
reason.com reason.com
 
LWC55 said:
This is from the link below:

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day; the 350 or so extra deaths per day over the last couple of days (if this worldometers.info data is correct) are about 20%.

reason.com

Italian Daily Death Rate Up 20% Because of Coronavirus, Lombardy Up About 80%

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day;
reason.com reason.com
Click to expand...

I missed a zero. Will correct the above post. Now reading the article.
 
BigHornRam said:
My MIL in La Crosse has symptoms and has been tested Monday, and should have results back today. Hope it comes back negative, she's over 80. She had a fever, but that has broke. So far only one in ten tests have come back positive to date, so I remain optimistic.
Click to expand...
Whew! Test came back negative! (y)
 
LWC55 said:
This is from the link below:

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day; the 350 or so extra deaths per day over the last couple of days (if this worldometers.info data is correct) are about 20%.

reason.com

Italian Daily Death Rate Up 20% Because of Coronavirus, Lombardy Up About 80%

Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day;
reason.com reason.com
Click to expand...

The article didn’t adjust the death rate for seasonality, didn’t explain how they knew the 350/day from covid-19 were “extra”, didn’t age adjust for region(we all know Florida is full of retirees), and didn’t explain normal fluctuation in death rate. I looked at a graph of Italian death rates and saw swings of around 11% from year to year. Is a 20% fluctuation above normal, when you calculate it during a peak season really abnormal?


I’m not saying that I’m sure this isn’t normal, but I’m starting to wonder if it is in fact just normal. Im wondering if we caught a common cold virus at the very beginning of its existence, started testing for it, and started labeling deaths we would normally have overlooked as something unusual.

I was pretty worried when I heard that China shut down an entire city. I’d have been fine with stopping all international travel to the US at that point. Once it was here we shut down travel from China and a lot of folks said that was an overreaction. I thought it was an under reaction. A) It was already here. B) It was still going to get to other countries we were still traveling to. Now that it’s playing out, I’m becoming more skeptical about how big a deal it is. Maybe I’m just wired to always disagree with everyone else. Lol.

I think a lot of people will agree with that last sentence. ;)
 
Last edited:
Baerman said:
My own personal analysis of this situation....
-As of this morning, March 18, the US has identified roughly 6500 cases.
-March 7, Italy had roughly 5900 cases
-Today, Italy has roughly 31,500 cases
-It takes 3-14 days for symptoms to show

Based on what I'm seeing on the news with spring breakers around the country and people going about their business where I live, the US will be in the same position as Italy in approximately 10-14 days regardless of if a full lock down were to be implemented today. I hope I'm wrong but be prepared for full freak out in the US and shortage of beds. It's going to get western within two weeks.
Click to expand...
This is the part that is confusing me, and forgive my ignorance here. A huge increase in people infected happened at the same time that Italy had a huge jump in testing of people. My simple mind is telling me the only reason the number go way up is because of increased testing.

Again please forgive my ignorance but by this weekend we will see a huge increase in numbers that really only reflect that we are testing a whole lot more people.
 
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Deaths per year in the usa.
 
88man said:
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Deaths per year in the usa.
Click to expand...
Source of information?
 
BigHornRam said:
Whew! Test came back negative! (y)
Click to expand...
So my dumb ass father who didn't listen to reason, and didn't cancel his South American cruise was for awhile stranded at the southern tip. Chile wouldn't let them go into their waters and Argentina wouldn't let the ship go back into their waters. Its moving forward now but he won't be getting off anytime soon. He says as long as the food and booze doesn't run out, all is good! Dumb ass!
 
Scrappy said:
This is the part that is confusing me, and forgive my ignorance here. A huge increase in people infected happened at the same time that Italy had a huge jump in testing of people. My simple mind is telling me the only reason the number go way up is because of increased testing.

Again please forgive my ignorance but by this weekend we will see a huge increase in numbers that really only reflect that we are testing a whole lot more people.
Click to expand...
I think this is a big part of the equation as well. Bottom line is that even with the restrictions put in place recently, the US will be where Italy is today within a couple weeks. Even if we went on full lock down today. It's going to stress people, businesses and the economy even more.
 
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