COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[JohnCushman]

I'm a little ignorant to this, but could it be the numbers in Italy are high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question.

 

[ImBillT]

I'm a little ignorant to this, but could it be the numbers in Italy are high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question.

The US does have the highest number of ICU beds per capita of anywhere in the world, and by quite a large margin at 2.78X as many per capita as Italy, but some of the projections suggest that it could still be 30X fewer than needed. So while our healthcare system is probably dramatically more capable of handling it than Italy’s, it may still become very overwhelmed.


Hopefully those projections way are off.

475 deaths/day in Italy is about 2.7X the average. Some would happen anyway, others still happened due to other causes. At most that’s 3.7X the average. I don’t know what a seasonal adjustment would give you. Maybe back down closer to 2.7X. Maybe we have just enough, plus some lead time on getting better prepared.

 

[JohnCushman]

The US does have the highest number of ICU beds per capita of anywhere in the world, and by quite a large margin, but some of the projections suggest that it could still be 30X fewer than needed. So while our healthcare system is probably dramatically more capable of handling it than Italy’s, it may still become very overwhelmed.


Hopefully those projections way are off.

Thank you

 

[VikingsGuy]

I'm a little ignorant to this, but could it be the numbers in Italy are high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question.

This was posted earlier on one of these threads, but for convenience:

 

[ImBillT]

I

Thank you

I edited it a little.

Some early projections I saw suggested that as much as 34 looks better than 12, we could need more like 1,000 ICU beds per 100,000. Hopefully that’s not even close .

 

[jryoung]

I'm a little ignorant to this, but could it be the numbers in Italy are high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question.

It could be a component, and if it is a component it will just be a portion of the pie in the pie chart. How big it is will likely be impossible to quantify.

Similar to our struggles with testing, how big of a factor will it be with our results?

 

[JohnCushman]

Thank you, guys!! I hate feeling stupid

 

[Straight Arrow]

I'm a little ignorant to this, but could it be the numbers in Italy are high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question.

Not a stupid question, and one which I would be interested in seeing analyzed. The assumption inherent in the question is in the phrase, "high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here". That phrase has a definite political bent to it, so it would be helpful to know if that assumption is true or not. If anyone has valid factual information, please explain. Political rhetoric is not welcome.

 

[Gerald Martin]

John Cushman doesn’t usually insert himself into partisan rhetoric. I’d take it as a question, not a rhetorical barb.

 

[JohnCushman]

Not a stupid question, and one which I would be interested in seeing analyzed. The assumption inherent in the question is in the phrase, "high due to their socialized health care system and not getting the same kind of care as quickly as we can get it here". That phrase has a definite political bent to it, so it would be helpful to know if that assumption is true or not. If anyone has valid factual information, please explain. Political rhetoric is not welcome.

Then don't try to find it where it doesn't exist

 

[Straight Arrow]

John Cushman doesn’t usually insert himself into partisan rhetoric. I’d take it as a question, not a rhetorical barb.

I also took it as an innocent question, merely including an assumption widely held, but not necessarily valid.

"Political rhetoric is not welcome." To be applied going forward, but not in reference to Cushman's good question. John, my take is that you did not even realize the political bent, so I'm sorry for any offense taken.

 

[Nameless Range]

Covid-19 Correlation with temperature and humidity

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240050094394634240

 

[Straight Arrow]

Simply asked, can anyone substantiate that the health care system in Italy is significantly inferior to that here to the extent that Italians do not get the same care "as quickly as we can get it here"?

If that is the case, then it is likely a factor. If not distinctly inferior, then perhaps not so much a factor.

Please help me again if my rhetoric is fuzzy.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Covid-19 Correlation with temperature and humidity

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240050094394634240

Looks like a scatter shot looking for an equation more than a real correlation

 

[JohnCushman]

If this is political, I apologize once again for my ignorance........

I saw a map overlay today of cases of the virus over sanctuary cities and there is an amazing correlation to cases of the virus in sanctuary areas. Again, my apologies if this is political, I'm still trying to get used to serious posting on a serious thread

 

[406dn]

Here is a link to a ranking of health care by country. Italy is ranked better than the USA in this ranking. Take it for what it's worth.

I do not think it is the care Italians are receiving that is causing so many deaths, it is that they got swamped by the pandemic.

Best Healthcare in the World 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

 

[JohnCushman]

Here is a link to a ranking of health care by country. Italy is ranked better than the USA in this ranking. Take it for what it's worth.

I do not think it is the care Italians are receiving, it is that they got swamped by the pandemic.

Best Healthcare in the World 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Thank you for the correction. I apologize for my ignorance.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Here is a link to a ranking of health care by country. Italy is ranked better than the USA in this ranking. Take it for what it's worth.

I do not think it is the care Italians are receiving, it is that they got swamped by the pandemic.

Best Healthcare in the World 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

As also posted on this thread, Italy has the second oldest population in the world and also has high rate of smoking - both factors in this disease.

 

[406dn]

As also posted on this thread, Italy has the second oldest population in the world and also has high rate of smoking - both factors in this disease.

Agreed

 

[Nameless Range]

Looks like a scatter shot looking for an equation more than a real correlation

The actual paper it references is kind of interesting. I don't fully understand it, but if I am reading it right, Vapor Pressure (VP)dictates the the creation and survivability of water droplets, which are thought to be significant influence on the spread of certain diseases.

Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality

Influenza A incidence peaks during winter in temperate regions. The basis for this pronounced seasonality is not understood, nor is it well documented how influenza A transmission principally occurs. Previous studies indicate that relative humidity (RH) affects both influenza virus transmission...

www.pnas.org

The linear regression models for temperature and RH are marginally statistically significant (P = 0.048 and P = 0.059, respectively), whereas the regression upon VP provides a much more statistically powerful model (P = 0.00027). This finding suggests that VP exerts a much stronger control on airborne IVT rates than either temperature or RH.