Corona virus

[VikingsGuy]

Trump’s actions will result in thousands of more deaths because the US ignored containment.

May or may not prove true with hindsight two years from now, but absolutely no evidence in hand today to support this point. This is way more complex than that. For example, the very liberal MN government has decided not to close schools because they believe the risk of transmission via kids is lower than the risk posed by having needed health care workers staying home with kids instead of being at work. Are they right? No one knows, but it is not because they do or do not support Trump.

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

I haven't seen posts comparing and contrasting past administrations activities, effectiveness of quarantines, effectiveness of vaccine funding, etc etc etc. What I see is, "Trump is bad", "No, Trump is good", "No, Trump is evil", "No, Obama was eviler", "Prove it", "No, you Prove it", "I could but the media won't let me", ad nauseam . . . . . . .

Were not the current administration our posts are irrelevant. But if you think this administration and the CDC are not looking at the history, paths of previous outbreaks, mode of actions that were taken, etc.. then maybe we really are doomed.

 

[Trial153]

I haven't seen posts comparing and contrasting past administrations activities, effectiveness of quarantines, effectiveness of vaccine funding, etc etc etc. What I see is, "Trump is bad", "No, Trump is good", "No, Trump is evil", "No, Obama was eviler", "Prove it", "No, you Prove it", "I could but the media won't let me", ad nauseam . . . . . . .

The first priority is always to spin it in such away that validates their tribalism. The sad thing is they are too ignorant to even recognize there actions.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Were not the current administration our posts are irrelevant. But if you think this administration and the CDC are not looking at the history, paths of previous outbreaks, mode of actions that were taken, etc.. then maybe we really are doomed.

Of course THEY are, I was referring to the squabbling and political baiting in this thread.

 

[brymoore]

May or may not prove true with hindsight two years from now, but absolutely no evidence in hand today to support this point. This is way more complex than that. For example, the very liberal MN government has decided not to close schools because they believe the risk of transmission via kids is lower than the risk posed by having needed health care workers staying home with kids instead of being at work. Are they right? No one knows, but it is not because they do or do not support Trump.

BS. China gave us a month the US ignored. We should have been testing people arriving on international flights. He’ll, we should have been testing instead of ignoring the issue.

History is going to show the actions of Singapore was the direction the country should have taken. I realize hindsight is 20/20, but taking Italy’s path is going to be fatal.

 

[VikingsGuy]

BS. China gave us a month the US ignored. We should have been testing people arriving on international flights. He’ll, we should have been testing instead of ignoring the issue.

History is going to show the actions of Singapore was the direction the country should have taken. I realize hindsight is 20/20, but taking Italy’s path is going to be fatal.

Comparing Singapore, a single city, with the US is ridiculous. Better to compare Singapore to Dallas - Dallas seems ok. Also it takes time to develop and scale production of tests. There isn't a pile of a million magic "find any virus" test kits laying around - no country in the world could have tested all travels in February --- and until the latency period to testable infection was known it actually is pointless. I have no idea what the right answer is in all of this, but NONE of the credible scientists were suggesting total national lock downs in February. In turn, the folks that keep posting that more people die riding a bike are similarly misguided on how to think about this.

 

[jryoung]

My only gripe on obama was he released funding to combat it way late after quite a few people already died. Other than that it was a virus and there is only so much a person can do to fight it.

First cases declared mid April 2009, request for $1.5b funding two weeks later before any deaths.

While talking about Obama can be a distraction because teams need to jump into their camps.....it is highly relevant because so much was learned from that outbreak. It's interesting reading some of the post mortems from various agencies, and seeing some of the warning/preparedness reccomendations weren't implemented.

The initial request to Congress for $1.5 billion
to respond to H1N1 occurred on April 30, 2009, just two days after the HHS Secretary
declared a public health emergency. A second request for an additional $2 billion was sent
on June 2, 2009. On June 24, 2009, nearly two months after the declaration of a public
health emergency, the supplemental appropriations for 2009 H1N1 (P.L. 111-32) was
signed into law, which included $7.65 billion to fund the pandemic response.

https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/mcm/h1n1-retrospective/Documents/h1n1-retrospective.pdf

Another good one from the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2018-2019/decade-since-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

[VikingsGuy]

...it is highly relevant because so much was learned from that outbreak.

I generally agree that we need to learn from the past (whether it fits our political paradigm or not), but in pandemics the devil is in the details. How you might stage quarantines, etc will vary depending on transmissibility, virility, patient population variances (old vs young for example), etc. A "perfect solution" to H1N1 could be dramatically wrong for SARS and the opposite could be better for Covid-19. So, "Obama did not save us from H1N1", and "just do what he did now" is not an answer for today. How viruses spread, which stay with a population and which largely disappear (MERS) , is there a 2nd or 3rd higher peak coming, are all unique, usually only explained with hindsight, and are largely completely unknown in this instance.

 

[ImBillT]

Only useful if you have a slide that shows the daily deaths of those diseases in their first 45 days of existence on the planet. I am guessing CV-19 would be near the top of that one.

I would bet that pretty much every new disease has a high death rate in the first 45 days.

 

[hossblur]

Hossblur, they are not just saying it now, they’ve been saying it for decades. Disagreeing with them is fine, but psychologizing their motivation isn’t really an argument against anything they are saying. Right?

I guess what I am asking, is take the fellow from Johns Hopkins that was on the Sam Harris podcast I posted above. What about what he is saying is wrong? I am certainly not an expert in microbiology

Most flus jumped the animal/human barrier. Lots of stuff does.

It's not that they aren't technically wrong, it's why are you listening and honestly, if your not in Research, why do you care?

Are you watching and listening to NASA guys? Any idea how many earth ending asteroids are lined up ready to hit?

My neighbor is a supervisor for a company making nukes. He's a smart guy, but real good socially.

He openly admits he is in management NOT because he's a great scientist, but because the great scientists in his org(175) are pretty socially backwards and poor at communication.

MICRO 101, first day, Dr. Oberg

"If it hasn't killed you yet, odds are it won't Tommorow either"

All the nasty, killer shit Microbiologists know about, deal with and create, do you really think corona viruses like this one are very high on that list?

 

[VikingsGuy]

I would bet that pretty much every new disease has a high death rate in the first 45 days.

I have no data - maybe some are more deadly to infected individuals but don't travel fast so lower early fatality total, maybe some spread quickly but became more virulent over time? My point was not to prove or disprove the 45 day figures, it was to point out that the referenced chart was a completely and utterly useless comparison that is best a waste of time and at worst may mislead someone into not following CDC and Mayo guidance on Covid-19.

 

[BuzzH]

My only gripe on obama was he released funding to combat it way late after quite a few people already died. Other than that it was a virus and there is only so much a person can do to fight it.

I smell rags burning...its your pants on fire.

 

[jryoung]

I generally agree that we need to learn from the past (whether it fits our political paradigm or not), but in pandemics the devil is in the details. How you might stage quarantines, etc will vary depending on transmissibility, virility, patient population variances (old vs young for example), etc. A "perfect solution" to H1N1 could be dramatically wrong for SARS and the opposite could be better for Covid-19. So, "Obama did not save us from H1N1", and "just do what he did now" is not an answer for today. How viruses spread, which stay with a population and which largely disappear (MERS) , is there a 2nd or 3rd higher peak coming, are all unique, usually only explained with hindsight, and are largely completely unknown in this instance.

I don't disagree at all, an algorithm or boiler plate response is the last thing we need. We should make sure our response teams are funded and have the resources need to make decisions and guide strategies. Unfortunately, the way budgets often go, you get a few years away from an event and those response teams budgets might seem like they're a little bloated. This is true across many agencies and departments both in government and business.

 

[hossblur]

May or may not prove true with hindsight two years from now, but absolutely no evidence in hand today to support this point. This is way more complex than that. For example, the very liberal MN government has decided not to close schools because they believe the risk of transmission via kids is lower than the risk posed by having needed health care workers staying home with kids instead of being at work. Are they right? No one knows, but it is not because they do or do not support Trump.

Just STOP.

Containment was broken in Wuhan, China.

Everything since the day the Chinese decided saving face was more important than human lives, is a reaction.

Put the blame where it deserves to be.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Just STOP.

Containment was broken in Wuhan, China.

Everything since the day the Chinese decided saving face was more important than human lives, is a reaction.

Put the blame where it deserves to be.

Did you even read my post that you quoted? Your rambling is completely disconnected from my comments. Carry on.

 

[JohnCushman]

I hear flights to Europe are dirt cheap.....

 

[406dn]

I blame you for the coronavirus outbreak.
That statement is about as logical as blaming Trump.
Saying dumb shit doesnt give the virus extra powers.

It's a virus not a freaking administration policy.

Where did I blame him for the virus? I blamed him for bungling the response at nearly every turn. Do you dispute he said those things?

You're on record saying the death toll will be on the order of a 100. We'll see how prescient you are,, or if you are once again saying dumb shit.

 

[Threedognight]

Watching the public reaction to this really concerns me. When an event in the major league proportions occurs it maybe the end of times.

 

[Nameless Range]

All the nasty, killer shit Microbiologists know about, deal with and create, do you really think corona viruses like this one are very high on that list?

I do

 

[VikingsGuy]

Where did I blame him for the virus. I blamed him for bungling the response at nearly every turn. Do you dispute he said those things?

You're on record saying the death toll will be on the order of a 100. We'll see how prescient you are,, or if you are once again saying dumb shit.

On what data are we deciding anyone "bungled" anything. In Wisconsin they decided to close schools, in MN they decided not to. Did WI bungle? Did MN bungle? Who knows yet. Attributing blame at this stage of the game is merely partisan self-soothing tribalism. I am a never-trumper so don't embarass yourself and pretend I am defending him - I am just tired of all the largely fact-free and science-free political finger pointing on both sides. For god's sake we even spent time blaming a past president from 3 years ago on this thread. Save it for November.