Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[BigHornRam]

I'll flip a coin. Green bull day to cap on the drop.

As I said, "I'll flip a coin".

My coin toss says blood bath.......

 

[stealthy_bowman]

I’m thinking the Fed doesn’t know shit from shinola. They were dead wrong on “transitory” inflation and they are dead wrong now. Every major company has significant layoffs in the queue and these take time to materialize and for the effects to be felt in the economy. Somehow, the Fed is missing it…but really for a very simple reason, they fail horribly at being forward looking. My guess is they will overshoot significantly with rate hikes and drive us onto a significant recession. Nevertheless, some good buying opportunities are coming. I’m no fortune teller, but I think we might retest the lows in the s&p for the year, but not much lower than that.

 

[Marshian]

It tore my heart out, but I had to leave Montana for my wife’s health. One small carrot is we did very well selling our house. I was able to buy the new place with cash and have a good amount leftover to hopefully buy a piece of Montana once the housing market hopefully corrects. My plan for this is to buy $10k in i bonds each for my wife and I and then put the rest into a Cd at 3%. Hopefully in a year when it matures, things will be different. But time will tell…

 

[NEWHunter]

So with a weekend to digest everything, what's the market going to do tomorrow?
Any buyers out there?

Not yet. Too soon for me. Tomorrow will not be good. Maxed out on I bonds at the beginning of the year and haven’t found the confidence to go long yet. I’ve been sitting on my bonus since March and will likely continue to do so.

 

[npaden]

The way crypto is moving this evening it isn’t looking good for tomorrow’s opening bell.

 

[SAJ-99]

Well given that I talked with the CEO about it I would have to disagree. I took a pay cut to cover the loss of profit due to tax offset.

I hope you made it back later. Your CEO made $12m last year for generally crappy stock perf. Your loyalty to the company is admirable. I guarantee they will come back to you and your colleagues when they need more cuts.

Will add this. I assume you are talking about this time. They were given lots of incentives.

State offers $25 million in tax incentives to Harley-Davidson

The state has offered Harley-Davidson Inc. up to $25 million in tax credits for keeping its factories in Wisconsin, a deal aimed at protecting about 1,000 blue-collar jobs in the Milwaukee area and Tomahawk.

archive.jsonline.com

 

[NDGuy]

So with a weekend to digest everything, what's the market going to do tomorrow?
Any buyers out there?

Hell no we are going down another leg.

 

[BuzzH]

Well given that I talked with the CEO about it I would have to disagree. I took a pay cut to cover the loss of profit due to tax offset.

How much of a pay cut is/did the CEO take?

You took a pay cut so the CEO gets a better bonus.

If you believe that a company passes tax savings to employees...you're not paying attention. You are a liability to the company, someone that cuts into their profits. If they can farm your job to another worker for less money, it will likely happen. If they can move your job to another state to save labor costs, it will happen. Eventually, if they find it worth their time, they'll send your job to another country...and won't thing twice about you.

They are beholden to the CEO, Board, and shareholders...you personally are about as important to them as a crescent wrench. When it makes financial sense for you to be disposed of, you'll be thrown away.

So, the last corporate tax cut, did your wages increase proportionally? Don't answer, I already know.

 

[Flatrock]

For those that think taxing the billionaire classes paper assets is a good idea, think again.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Oh what a bunch of garbage Bighorn to spin it like that. While yea, the article is correct, what about when Powell stepped in in late March 2020 and threw trillions of dollars at the financial markets when Covid first started? That was the day the market bottomed after it had crashed for the month prior. That saved the billionaires who knows how many trillion dollars. Their actions after that are a completely different story/debate but the Fed isn't out to stick it to the rich.

 

[Flatrock]

I’m thinking the Fed doesn’t know shit from shinola. They were dead wrong on “transitory” inflation and they are dead wrong now. Every major company has significant layoffs in the queue and these take time to materialize and for the effects to be felt in the economy. Somehow, the Fed is missing it…but really for a very simple reason, they fail horribly at being forward looking. My guess is they will overshoot significantly with rate hikes and drive us onto a significant recession. Nevertheless, some good buying opportunities are coming. I’m no fortune teller, but I think we might retest the lows in the s&p for the year, but not much lower than that.

I think that's a very good possibility. Some commentary about how badly they got it wrong on "transitory" that they're almost forced to overshoot now.

Yield curve is inverted pretty hard right now. Honestly, a recession might be the best thing to kill inflation and just have a "reset" after covid. Could setup for a tremendous buying opportunity.

 

[Sytes]

Monday, Monday... La-laa-la-lalala!

 

[schmalts]

How much of a pay cut is/did the CEO take?

You took a pay cut so the CEO gets a better bonus.

If you believe that a company passes tax savings to employees...you're not paying attention. You are a liability to the company, someone that cuts into their profits. If they can farm your job to another worker for less money, it will likely happen. If they can move your job to another state to save labor costs, it will happen. Eventually, if they find it worth their time, they'll send your job to another country...and won't thing twice about you.

They are beholden to the CEO, Board, and shareholders...you personally are about as important to them as a crescent wrench. When it makes financial sense for you to be disposed of, you'll be thrown away.

So, the last corporate tax cut, did your wages increase proportionally? Don't answer, I already know.

I love it when you are wrong. And you pretty much talked out of your ass on everything you typed. First, I directly asked if he took a pay cut and grilled him about it so it's not like I wasn't paying attention. Second, shortly after that pay cut I quit the union, took a salary job so my wages were dependent on my performance instead of my co-workers. Best thing I ever did. When the company got the tax break under Trump my merit raise was extra 4% than past years so there's that. I have talked to multiple business owners who under Trump and the tax cuts, felt confident enough to expand, hire, and pay better. I will believe the opinion of personal friends that own businesses than a union worker, since I have been in both shoes.

 

[Cornbread]

Too many instances of tax abatement and cash for jobs where the company bilks not only the citizens and 4B board, also the construction companies involved in the start up. Good money to bad actors.

How about state, local and Federal politicians bilk taxpayers to give various handouts to the middle class? Companies are out to act in their best interest, just like you and I do. It's these politicians that are in the driver's seat. Call a spade a spade.

 

[Cornbread]

I’m thinking the Fed doesn’t know shit from shinola. They were dead wrong on “transitory” inflation and they are dead wrong now. Every major company has significant layoffs in the queue and these take time to materialize and for the effects to be felt in the economy. Somehow, the Fed is missing it…but really for a very simple reason, they fail horribly at being forward looking. My guess is they will overshoot significantly with rate hikes and drive us onto a significant recession. Nevertheless, some good buying opportunities are coming. I’m no fortune teller, but I think we might retest the lows in the s&p for the year, but not much lower than that.

Appointing Jay Powell was one of Trump's biggest mistakes, along with Christopher Wray, And Mattis and Espy at defense. Powell is no Ben Bernahke. Keep in mind, a number of FOMC members are democrats. They are going to screw up, because they subtly support Brandon. Powell must be a closet Dumbocrat. But in the end, this is what America SUPPOSEDLY VOTED FOR, so give it to them. Sit back and eat your popcorn. Inflation will be around awhile, like years. They just threw another log on the fire with this latest Brandon stimulus bill. And these dumbasses in Washington want higher gasoline prices to force everybody into electric cars. That will add to a huge misallocations of resources, and hence higher prices in some products. Remember, inflation is ALL PRICES MOVING HIGHER, BECAUSE AGGREGATE DEMAND IS GREATER THAN AGGREGATE SUPPLY.

I think a lot of people still don't get it. Look at the Wyoming election. 29% of voters still voted for Cheney!! And the Virginia governor's election was billed as a resounding victory for Republicans, but he only won by 3%. In other words, 45+% of voters still voted for the Dumbocrats. LOLOL. Low I.Q. voters?

 

[BigHornRam]

Oh what a bunch of garbage Bighorn to spin it like that. While yea, the article is correct, what about when Powell stepped in in late March 2020 and threw trillions of dollars at the financial markets when Covid first started? That was the day the market bottomed after it had crashed for the month prior. That saved the billionaires who knows how many trillion dollars. Their actions after that are a completely different story/debate but the Fed isn't out to stick it to the rich.

There are a number of posters here that believe out of "fairness" it is a great idea to tax stock valuation appreciation annually. Just pointing out that sword cuts both ways, when stocks depreciate, that tax you guys are clamoring for so you can stick it to the rich, becomes a tax refund. Keep it up, and watch stocks become worthless in short order. Probably a good thing anyway, since Wall Street has basically turned into a casino.

 

[TOGIE]

There are a number of posters here that believe out of "fairness" it is a great idea to tax stock valuation appreciation annually.

there may be some people out there that think that, but i don't there are many. most people think if you borrow against your equities to pay for your extravagent life you need to pay income tax on that borrowed moolah.

 

[BigHornRam]

"No Ball Paul likes Blue Star"

 

[rogerthat]

Anecdotally in our neck of the woods, demand appears to be just barely if at all being reduced. I think this is going to take a lot longer than people think. The dovish pivot with the fed throwing in the towel to accept higher than 2%(3-4% is my guess) inflation is where I see this ending at some point. The question will be how deep will the recession be at that point? I don’t expect it to be as deep as it needs to be to flush out all the excesses of the prior bull but in the long term it would be better if it was.

 

[BigHornRam]

Oil prices are climbing back up, nat gas is way up, and big oil continues to buy back their stock.

Big Oil's $41 Billion Buyback Bonanza | OilPrice.com

Oil supermajors are on track for near-record share buckbacks this year as profits soar thanks to high oil and gas prices

oilprice.com

Looks like big oil has had enough of the activist ESG investors @wllm and doing something about it.

"Another big consideration for the oil majors: buybacks deliver more voting leverage back into the hands of companies, something that Exxon shareholders understand only too well when activist investor Engine 1 was able to push for the company to diversify the oil company away from fossil fuel by having three of its members sitting on the board."

 

[SAJ-99]

There are a number of posters here that believe out of "fairness" it is a great idea to tax stock valuation appreciation annually. Just pointing out that sword cuts both ways, when stocks depreciate, that tax you guys are clamoring for so you can stick it to the rich, becomes a tax refund. Keep it up, and watch stocks become worthless in short order. Probably a good thing anyway, since Wall Street has basically turned into a casino.

Don’t remember anyone saying that taxing unrealized gains was a good idea. i think @TOGIE points out the position I support. If you take out a loan with your stock as collateral that loan should be taxed as income.

But also, as I understand the original idea, I don’t think if stock values fall they get a rebate. Still a horrible idea, but that would require a lot of creative accounting.