Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

SAJ-99 said:
Not exactly. You have moved to debate the various efficient market forms, which is related to rational expectations, but not the same. You made the point that it is mostly about expectations. The market prices in expectations of the future. The future is never known. As long as those expectations are balanced (some think good future, some thinking bad future) and unpredictable you have a pretty good estimate (wisdom of the crowd, or something). But when everyone think the same thing, we have problems. That is what I mean by “creates volatility”, and it only relates to capital markets, certainly not real estate. It plants the seed for a small piece of new information to have a disproportionate impact on prices. This explains a lot of the last 8 months.

Wont respond the “don’t have a clue” post because I don’t feel it is necessary at this point.

We agree that markets are humbling.
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I give up. You should write a book about this new economic theory. Have you ever had a college course in economics or finance?
 
BigHornRam said:
For those that think taxing the billionaire classes paper assets is a good idea, think again.
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Amen. Remember how under Jimmy Dipstick Carter how they tried to tax to death the luxury boat market? Ended up in laying off tons of blue collar boat guys. Look at the effect of confiscating all these Russian super yachts. Tons of people out of work, and now they have the daily carry costs of the yachts and basic crews. We just keep repeating the same mistakes. The same ignorant voters keep repeating the same mistakes.
 
Cornbread said:
Amen. Remember how under Jimmy Dipstick Carter how they tried to tax to death the luxury boat market? Ended up in laying off tons of blue collar boat guys. Look at the effect of confiscating all these Russian super yachts. Tons of people out of work, and now they have the daily carry costs of the yachts and basic crews. We just keep repeating the same mistakes. The same ignorant voters keep repeating the same mistakes.
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Hell will freeze over before I care about billionaires assets monetary or otherwise.
 
Cornbread said:
Amen. Remember how under Jimmy Dipstick Carter how they tried to tax to death the luxury boat market? Ended up in laying off tons of blue collar boat guys. Look at the effect of confiscating all these Russian super yachts. Tons of people out of work, and now they have the daily carry costs of the yachts and basic crews. We just keep repeating the same mistakes. The same ignorant voters keep repeating the same mistakes.
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I experienced first hand what fallout can happen from high taxes on businesses. Back in the the day the misnamed "stimulus bill" that greatly increases taxes on business was signed into law by Gov. Jim Doyle. just three days after the bill was introduced. There were no hearings. There was little input from taxpayers. So much for transparency. Harley-Davidson was on the hook for over a 10 million extra tax bill mid year. We were all called into a town hall meeting where we were informed that we will all take a pay cut and our contract needs to be opened or they will move the operations out of the state. I took a pay cut due to higher taxes.
I get it, places like amazon and GE need to pay up but this whole notion that raising taxes on businesses is a good idea is not as it may seem. No one gets a good paying job from a poor cooperation
 
schmalts said:
I experienced first hand what fallout can happen from high taxes on businesses. Back in the the day the misnamed "stimulus bill" that greatly increases taxes on business was signed into law by Gov. Jim Doyle. just three days after the bill was introduced. There were no hearings. There was little input from taxpayers. So much for transparency. Harley-Davidson was on the hook for over a 10 million extra tax bill mid year. We were all called into a town hall meeting where we were informed that we will all take a pay cut and our contract needs to be opened or they will move the operations out of the state. I took a pay cut due to higher taxes.
I get it, places like amazon and GE need to pay up but this whole notion that raising taxes on businesses is a good idea is not as it may seem. No one gets a good paying job from a poor cooperation
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What you describe sounds like an inter-state tax arbitrage. I’m sure the other state offered tax breaks to HD and then the company makes the threat to get concessions from you. Classic labor vs capital fight. I’ve read some articles on Kansas City (KS, MO) where businesses jump back and forth over the state line every time the special tax benefits end. In the end, it’s been the trend for decades. Give concessions to the company to get them into the state in order to tax the workers you gain.
 
SAJ-99 said:
What you describe sounds like an inter-state tax arbitrage. I’m sure the other state offered tax breaks to HD and then the company makes the threat to get concessions from you. Classic labor vs capital fight. I’ve read some articles on Kansas City (KS, MO) where businesses jump back and forth over the state line every time the special tax benefits end. In the end, it’s been the trend for decades. Give concessions to the company to get them into the state in order to tax the workers you gain.
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No, what I described is what happened when more tax is put on a company. Bottom line, tax is tax on the company books. Point being that it is not always a great outcome for workers when a company has to pay more taxes regardless if the taxes are Federal or state. You as an investor should understand that profit and loss at the end of each quarterly earnings report has a huge impact on stock prices. Any tax regardless of what government level is a cost to the company bottom line. I am wrong?
 
SAJ-99 said:
What you describe sounds like an inter-state tax arbitrage. I’m sure the other state offered tax breaks to HD and then the company makes the threat to get concessions from you. Classic labor vs capital fight. I’ve read some articles on Kansas City (KS, MO) where businesses jump back and forth over the state line every time the special tax benefits end. In the end, it’s been the trend for decades. Give concessions to the company to get them into the state in order to tax the workers you gain.
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Too many instances of tax abatement and cash for jobs where the company bilks not only the citizens and 4B board, also the construction companies involved in the start up. Good money to bad actors.
 
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schmalts said:
No, what I described is what happened when more tax is put on a company. Bottom line, tax is tax on the company books. Point being that it is not always a great outcome for workers when a company has to pay more taxes regardless if the taxes are Federal or state. You as an investor should understand that profit and loss at the end of each quarterly earnings report has a huge impact on stock prices. Any tax regardless of what government level is a cost to the company bottom line. I am wrong?
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Agree, just saying that workers won’t get any of the benefit of lower taxes. It will all flow through to the shareholders (and thereby C-level Mgmt). And play the game out. HD moves and then 5yrs later another state gives it a bunch of incentives to move there. Eventually another country will just say “build your bikes here and pay nothing”. Then they fired all manufacturing employees, but sure as hell won’t get rid of any management. Then you see what has happened to America over then last 30yrs. It’s easy to blame taxes.
 
BigHornRam said:
So with a weekend to digest everything, what's the market going to do tomorrow?
Any buyers out there?
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I get lost. I guess the market has the 50 or 75 basis point increase in interest rates priced in for a while now but were expecting that to be the end of it for a while. Based on the comments it sounds like the Fed is thinking at least 50 to 100 is more than likely on the way after that.

It is a very tight balancing act as they need to increase rates to stave off inflation but the increase in rates is pushing us to a recession if we aren’t already there.

No one wants to hear this, but at the rate we are going we may have substantially more to go on the interest rate increases before things get under control on inflation.

I think the only way to get it under control is to actually get us into a recession.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Agree, just saying that workers won’t get any of the benefit of lower taxes. It will all flow through to the shareholders (and thereby C-level Mgmt). And play the game out. HD moves and then 5yrs later another state gives it a bunch of incentives to move there. Eventually another country will just say “build your bikes here and pay nothing”. Then they fired all manufacturing employees, but sure as hell won’t get rid of any management. Then you see what has happened to America over then last 30yrs. It’s easy to blame taxes.
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Well given that I talked with the CEO about it I would have to disagree. I took a pay cut to cover the loss of profit due to tax offset.
 
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