Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Nick87]

And we all know a lot of businesses are going to adapt, change, and do better. Businesses start and fold all the time and now, more than ever, no business is too small, or too big to fail.

The sky didn't fall...and with things starting to reopen, it wont anytime soon.

I hope things are reopening soon for everyone's sake. Our governor is talking about being prepared to see this continue into the fall here.

 

[Dave N]

I hope things are reopening soon for everyone's sake. Our governor is talking about being prepared to see this continue into the fall here.

And we all can see how stupid he can be about some of his decisions.

 

[Nick87]

And we all can see how stupid he can be about some of his decisions.

Yah isnt he great.

 

[Dave N]

Didn't want to go fishing anyway...

 

[Nick87]

Didn't want to go fishing anyway...

We did today as a matter of fact!!

 

[Sytes]

Another green day... My hobby market skilled opinion leads me to believe complacency w/ C-19 has caused a sense of market "bottom" found. A support higher than I anticipated.

LUV (Southwest Airlines), example just released their earnings w/ an outlook that May, might bring revenue to a 95% loss!
LUV +1.5%?!?!
What's DAL (Delta Airlines) today? +4%!?!?

Southwest posts first quarterly loss in 9 years and warns of more coronavirus clouds

Southwest Airlines Co posted on Tuesday a $94 million net loss in the first quarter, its first quarterly loss in nine years, due to the coronavirus pandemic and said it sees no major improvement in air travel in the second quarter. The COVID-19 crisis has decimated travel demand, with an...

finance.yahoo.com

Total operating revenue declined 17.8% to $4.2 billion. It sees operating revenue falling 90% to 95% in both April and May, when it does not expect load factors to surpass 10%.

Hmmm... No comprende.

 

[redwoood]

I don't understand either.

I was hoping BA would drop tomorrow after earnings report but I've given up all hope.

 

[redwoood]

I don't understand either.

I was hoping BA would drop tomorrow after earnings report but I've given up all hope.

Already up 4% pre market.

 

[3855WIN]

Stocks jump 2%, putting the S&P 500 on track for its best month since 1974 — CNBC

Stocks jumped on positive data from a potential coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences while investors digested a sharp drop in U.S. economic activity.

apple.news

 

[TOGIE]

it's just kinda funny at his point - fed officially releases contraction data, bad contraction data, says it may get revised to even worse after more data comes, market jumps

it really only is virus news...

i still think the economic reality is gonna catch up to the market at some point, how could it not? am i naive?

 

[ignorethefringes]

I've given up hope on trying to understand the market. Things that should have negative impact don't, and things that should ring positive don't. There is little logic going on.

 

[Sytes]

It's about riding the trend for the short term.
There's no rhyme or reason. Thus long term... Find the good companies who's value has been dumped due to the panic and ride with them over the long haul

Complacency will hit world GDP and it *should turn red though this fickle mob market could easily say... "Hey, let's have a green day!"

Earning Reports... CFO/CEO openly announce no quarterly/annual guidance because the unknown still lurks.
Inventory w/o market sitting idle. Once production goes full swing... There is going to be some very lackluster reports. Excess inventory sitting that will become overshadowed by new product. Especially microchip/semiconductors... Development jumps faster than product releases.

I think this is complacent, feel good times. $ is made for short term riders of the market roller coaster.
It's enjoyable so long as the ledger stays green.

 

[SAJ-99]

Hmmm... No comprende.

Yep. Investor sentiment remains "buy the dip" and the Fed supports it. This has nothing to do with economic data. Even bad economic data means the Fed will print more money which flows right into financial assets. Fed Balance sheet is over $7 Trillion. It is buying investment grade bonds, high yield bonds that used to be investment grade, municipal bonds, Mortgage backed securities, treasuries. Only thing not on the list is stocks...should I add 'yet'?
The articles that say the market is looking to the Fed for "clues" today have been numerous (3855Win posted one from CNBC, but Bloomberg had one too), but I just assume they were written by the new summer interns. The Fed isn't going to give any guidance on rates or purchases today. It's only going to say "do whatever is necessary" or "plenty of tools left in the toolbox". Any clarity on the future today from Powell would be an absolute failure. You might get a "sell the news" event over the next few days as the market has come very far very fast, and I'm sure the every media outlet's summer intern will parse the words to make up a reason for it, but there isn't any particular reason. This has been going on for the last 10yrs. We typically rally before the meeting and sell off a little after,. We will see what happens this time.

With the Fed purchasing everything, it destroys the risk/return curve. A corporate bond's interest rate spread to treasuries isn't about the risk of default anymore. It is an assessment of the chance of getting bailed out. High risk stocks aren't that risky if money is going to flood into the market and the Fed is a backstop. Active managers ("stock-pickers") have historically done well in these types of selloffs, but I suspect they are going to continue to get trounced by the index. There is no difference to the market between high quality and risky companies. No mutual fund manager is going to say "we buy highly levered companies with the worst business models", but those tend to do the best in this craziness.

Sorry if this sounds like a rant. It really isn't other than everything that is taught in economics and finance in every college across the world is basically irrelevant. In full disclosure, my portfolio is 70% stocks, so i ride the wave as long as I can, even if I think it is doesn't make any sense.

 

[thusby]

Someone remind me to sell my shale stocks before its too late.

 

[brymoore]

Someone remind me to sell my shale stocks before its too late.

Sell your shale stocks...

 

[Flyfish4ever]

I pumped a few hundred into marathon oil and Boeing a few weeks back. I’m satisfied with where it is right now. Holding both for 1 year is my plan. Taking advantage of tax law.

 

[SD_Prairie_Goat]

I'll agree with the overall sentiment: the market defies logic and basic economic theory right now.....


I bought trade desk (TTD) at the low, almost up to 100% gain... Shoulda bought more, but you always say that on the big winners after the fact.

 

[Sytes]

I'm sitting on July AMD $57.5 Put Options. I had a straddle going, sold my Calls yesterday before their earnings release aftermarket, stunned how they have bumped their highest stock price... Ever! Thus the reason I'm holding my Puts.

It's gotta tank! Right? Haha! How can it hold premium stock value during production dump, excess inventory?After listening to the earnings call, it's a tough road for the annual haul! Hopefully it tanks before a month prior to expiration to catch some extra intrinsic value.
Meh, my Call sells gave me some play room with the hobby $ for day/swing trades.

Up or down tomorrow? My crystal ball's not so cooperative...

 

[jabber]

I sold 190, 195 & 200 calls on FB this morning for a nice gain and happy with it. After hours it's up another $15 to 210. Oh well, bird in the hand.....

 

[thusby]

I’m selling Hal and Oxy at $20 no matter what. If it ever gets there!