Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Good question. A lot of the previous posts were correct. The market reacted to the reduction in new cases. Anything in that area that looks like a peak is good news. Now the focus is on reopening the economy. That fight is going to be a good one. Grab your popcorn. The problem will be in determining what the "herd immunity" % is and the antibody test apparently stinks. Otherwise we can look for a resurgence of the virus in the fall. Worst possible time for us as hunters.
Interesting part today was that JPM reported earnings and got clobbered while the rest of the market went up 3%. JPM is the cream of the crop in banks and dropped almost 3%. Carnival Cruise lines jumped 8%. Only answer I can give to your question is a big WTF? I like quality names here over speculative plays. Reality will eventually catch up with CCL and the like.
The big WTF is right. I have a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines again. Might miss the boat but I am sitting here thinking "are we better off now than we were early 2019??" Sadly at the moment I am looking for a big drop. I think there is little herd immunity because most people getting tested think they have it but the test VS positive numbers show they just have the flu or cold. I was spot on most predictions early on, I just have no idea what to predict at this point. Is the market going up because everyone just think it's clear sailing here on out or is it just long term investors with no place to put money because of rates. Half of every finance news article says we will crash again, the other half say the opposite. Many are from the same source LOL... Man I wish I had that crystal ball. I should just bite the bullet and buy a bunch of BRK-A and be done with it
SAJ-99
Well-known member
There is no way to justify the latest rise in the market, but this fits the trend over the last 5 yrs. There is no other place to put money to work and earn a decent return. The Fed is pouring money into supporting the market, so fighting that takes a huge set of stones. There are some individual stocks that are still at good value. I bought some Disney last week and am looking at JPMorgan here. Sold my QQQs today, but a bit early on that. Market clearly favors big tech, but the last 10 days have been on zero fundamental news except virus speculation and I suspect earnings will continue to be blah at best. I have heard people say that we are range-bound (2800-2300 in S&P) but we blew through that today and I can't imagine what would cause another 20% drop back to 2300.
don't you gotta figure that as the full, real, economic impact is realized in terms of jobs and consumer spending it will send another shockwave through the market? maybe not another 20% though? heck if i know
it seems the virus fear is waning (from my perspective), boosting confidence, but the economy is still locked up, eventually the market will realize that i'd think
full disclosure, i don't know jack diddly squat in all reality about this stuff, especially compared to most of you. i just still think there some big shake ups headed
it seems the virus fear is waning (from my perspective), boosting confidence, but the economy is still locked up, eventually the market will realize that i'd think
full disclosure, i don't know jack diddly squat in all reality about this stuff, especially compared to most of you. i just still think there some big shake ups headed
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I am not a great stock market mind, but I believe we are just dealing with the tip of the iceberg on the economic disruptions and a second market dip is in the cards. Whether it is because of poorly executed May "reboot" or a delayed reboot well into June, some poor trial results from the various vaccine and "treatment" trials, reduced consumer confidence and commensurate reduction in spending through the summer, supply chain disruptions working their way through the system, lingering unemployment numbers, bankruptcies, an early fall second wave, etc etc etc. I just don't see us avoiding all of these and maintaining an S&P of 2800. Best case in my view is we go back down to 2500, worst case there is prolonged economic hangover and we see sub 2000. Who knows, but I don't see good reason economic reasons for 2800+ S&P500 other than the fed fueled artificial propping up.
Agree. Still think 18k DOW is our support to be tested.
Markets are playing an upswing and jusst as quickly will play the short game on the way down...
Option puts are starting to overtake the calls in a couple market's I play and that's a good feeler for futures, in my hobby opinion.
Airlines are flying high aftermarket. A good long term put, imo... Catch the drop and cover for a bankruptcy... THAT'S where the big $$$ will play out. Out of money, cheap now... Set it to lose though if a bankruptcy does occur, that's money in the bank.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Seems impossible to not dip hard in next 90 days. Companies are seeing revenues drop, some brand name blue blood companies will have pressure to cut dividends, ramping up the economy may be uneven, unemployed numbers continues to grow, virus may re-emerge in a growth phase somewhere, geopolitical risk, Biden leading in polls, Fed running out of non-inflationary options to boost the economy, etc. I just can't see "welp, no place to put my money so buying stocks today" as a long-term way to grow when bad news is building. Will know this time next year and am very curious what the world economy is like in a year.
BuzzH
Well-known member
Power of the press...and .gov isn't afraid to use it, as we're witnessing first hand...in particular during an election year.
Too big, and now too small, to fail.
Retirements 100% pot committed to 401's.
Nowhere to park money to have it work for you better than burying it in a folger's can in the back yard or putting it under your mattress. May as well let it roll in the market.
Privatize profits and socialize loses.
Any questions?
Too big, and now too small, to fail.
Retirements 100% pot committed to 401's.
Nowhere to park money to have it work for you better than burying it in a folger's can in the back yard or putting it under your mattress. May as well let it roll in the market.
Privatize profits and socialize loses.
Any questions?
Last edited:
HONEYBADGER
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2013
- Messages
- 776
It will get worse....the whole west coast is talking about slow walking any opening up or return to normalcy. There is going to be huge job loss numbers that continue to post and the mortgage fallout from all this is yet to be realized.....
LousyResident
Well-known member
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2016
- Messages
- 3,104
It's been really interesting to watch and I don't know what's going to happen. I will say that the market seems optimistic but hesitant based upon short days of gains followed by days of falls. I've been able to do a little more trading on that cycle, picking up JPM/AMD/CCL etc. on a downturn and selling it for a small gain a couple days later. I picked up Citibank today since it dropped after JPM earnings yesterday and Cititbank earnings today. I'm figuring that I'll be able to offload it later this week (the weeks seems be ending up before a fall Monday/Tuesday). But worst case scenario I hold it for a few years and come out ahead.
I'm also eyeing CCL and NCL heavily for long term. I think that investing now could result in 100%-400% gain over the next 10 years. I'm 25+ from retirement so I have time to wait.
All that said, I am slowing selling and moving more of my portfolio to cash (trying to stay around 30+%) so I can take advantage of the dips and rises.
I'm also eyeing CCL and NCL heavily for long term. I think that investing now could result in 100%-400% gain over the next 10 years. I'm 25+ from retirement so I have time to wait.
All that said, I am slowing selling and moving more of my portfolio to cash (trying to stay around 30+%) so I can take advantage of the dips and rises.
$ made one either way. Agree 100%.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I really really hate chrony-capatilsm!
At least in CA, i can't see any groups larger than 50 being allowed for atleast another year. No sports, including professional as well as all the youth activities, no TV shows with audiences (like Price is Right, Ellen, etc) TV and film production which supports a lot of other businesses (catering, crew, set building, etc). Not sure what schools K-12 and universities will look like in the fall.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Agree. The economy will not see a V recovery, but it doesn't mean the market won't. The market and economy haven't been in touch with each other for many years.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Keep in mind that those cruise lines are NOT US domiciled companies. They may be cut off from any US government assistance if certain people in charge don't like their tax-avoidance strategy. You are walking a tightrope without the safety net on those.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
My understanding is that he doesn't try to time the market - he has his eyes set on a few target businesses or industries that he will buy into at the right price and is looking for that particular price to come to him, not the S&P500 or Dow.
My $.02 is that two monstrous divergent forces have yet to really fully impact the market.
-Positive forces are massive cash infusion (stimulus checks/PPP loans etc...), six weeks of pent up consumer demand.
-Negative forces are high and increasing unemployment figures, many businesses that have been hanging on by a thread but will soon be going under for good, and cash infusion-caused inflation/increasing interest rates possible. Add to that the fact that the market in February was probably quite overpriced to begin with.
The market will find an equilibrium in the next few months when these factors are fully realized, but my crystal ball says it may very well be a net negative. I am putting in monthly because I have a few decades to go, but if I was on the sidelines with cash and in the later stages of my career, I would be very nervous about jumping back in right now.
-Positive forces are massive cash infusion (stimulus checks/PPP loans etc...), six weeks of pent up consumer demand.
-Negative forces are high and increasing unemployment figures, many businesses that have been hanging on by a thread but will soon be going under for good, and cash infusion-caused inflation/increasing interest rates possible. Add to that the fact that the market in February was probably quite overpriced to begin with.
The market will find an equilibrium in the next few months when these factors are fully realized, but my crystal ball says it may very well be a net negative. I am putting in monthly because I have a few decades to go, but if I was on the sidelines with cash and in the later stages of my career, I would be very nervous about jumping back in right now.
