Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Bonasababy]

From Fidelity.

How is the us economy doing | Fidelity

Gloomy economic sentiment doesn't match the data. What's happening with the economy?

www.fidelity.com

"While the criteria for determining when a recession occurs is complex, there is no indication that one has arrived. The gross domestic product of the US has actually grown over the last 2 quarters: by 3.3% in Q4 2023 and 1.6% in Q1 2024.

"Stocks are doing well. The S&P 500® Index rose by 24% in 2023 and has continued on its upward trajectory in 2024, rising more than 10% in Q1 2024.

"Though still elevated from its pre-pandemic levels, the rate of inflation most recently dropped to 3.4% in April, down significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.2 Furthermore, wages have generally been rising faster than inflation since February 2023, which in theory should lessen the impact of rising costs on consumers.

"The unemployment rate is actually near a 50-year low. In May 2024, it rose slightly to 4%, which is well below the average reading of 5.7% since 1950."

And mortgage rates are starting to drop as well.

 

[Sytes]

 

[SAJ-99]

From Fidelity.

How is the us economy doing | Fidelity

Gloomy economic sentiment doesn't match the data. What's happening with the economy?

www.fidelity.com

"While the criteria for determining when a recession occurs is complex, there is no indication that one has arrived. The gross domestic product of the US has actually grown over the last 2 quarters: by 3.3% in Q4 2023 and 1.6% in Q1 2024.

"Stocks are doing well. The S&P 500® Index rose by 24% in 2023 and has continued on its upward trajectory in 2024, rising more than 10% in Q1 2024.

"Though still elevated from its pre-pandemic levels, the rate of inflation most recently dropped to 3.4% in April, down significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.2 Furthermore, wages have generally been rising faster than inflation since February 2023, which in theory should lessen the impact of rising costs on consumers.

"The unemployment rate is actually near a 50-year low. In May 2024, it rose slightly to 4%, which is well below the average reading of 5.7% since 1950."

I was watching old episodes of Shark Tank from 2013 and have seen multiple times where sharks mention how “tough it is out there” for people or “recession”. I almost want to throw something at the TV.

Studies have shown that on average we tend to be negative and pessimistic. I’m sure that’s further enforced by the media need for clickbait and social media. I guess this is the new normal.

 

[Bonasababy]

I was watching old episodes of Shark Tank from 2013 and have seen multiple times where sharks mention how “tough it is out there” for people or “recession”. I almost want to throw something at the TV.

Studies have shown that on average we tend to be negative and pessimistic. I’m sure that’s further enforced by the media need for clickbait and social media. I guess this is the new normal.

Even more pronounced before an election. There are some issues, but they get pronounced way out of proportion to whip people up into thinking things are better (or these days, worse) than they are.

If I can find I'll post an article I read a week or so ago that compared times in the past with metrics like mortgage rates, unemployment, GDP etc. to today. It was pretty interesting--some times that people who many presume "did it right" on the economy--like Reagan's years--had metrics that stack up as worse or similar to what we have now.

Doesn't mean we shouldn't strive for better. I'd like to have a much lower loan rate and some chance at deals when I am truck shopping in a year! But the market can keep doing what's it doing and I'll be ecstatic by then as well and it may not matter as much.

 

[longbow51]

When folks talk about inflation, they almost never mention that it is cumulative. Act like 3.4% is great; and maybe it is, year over year. When you compare the price of groceries to 2019, though, the difference is staggering, and many of lesser means than most of us here are suffering badly. We're talking stocks, out of state hunts and new trucks; they're worried about food and rent.

 

[antelopedundee]

I was watching old episodes of Shark Tank from 2013 and have seen multiple times where sharks mention how “tough it is out there” for people or “recession”. I almost want to throw something at the TV.

Studies have shown that on average we tend to be negative and pessimistic. I’m sure that’s further enforced by the media need for clickbait and social media. I guess this is the new normal.

Some folks wouldn't be happy even if they got hanged with a new rope.

Some Americans live in a parallel economy where everything is terrible

Many Americans mistakenly think the economy is shrinking and the stock market is tanking. What gives?

finance.yahoo.com

 

[antelopedundee]

When folks talk about inflation, they almost never mention that it is cumulative. Act like 3.4% is great; and maybe it is, year over year. When you compare the price of groceries to 2019, though, the difference is staggering, and many of lesser means than most of us here are suffering badly. We're talking stocks, out of state hunts and new trucks; they're worried about food and rent.

It's a bifurcated economy; good for those with money and not so good for those financially deficient.

Those expecting trump to bail them out with cheaper gasoline and groceries could be in for a rude awakening.

The smart money is preparing for Trumpflation

Inflation is coming down under Biden. Many economists think it could go back up if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

finance.yahoo.com

"Biden's economic agenda is still a tough sell to voters, who sometimes have selective memories. Biden is battling a “Trumpnesia” phenomenon in which voters forget about Trump’s erratic handling of the COVID pandemic and other controversies and only remember that gasoline cost less than $3 per gallon. If there’s another Trump presidential term, it could generate very different memories."

 

[Rie Bread]

It's a bifurcated economy; good for those with money and not so good for those financially deficient.

Those expecting trump to bail them out with cheaper gasoline and groceries could be in for a rude awakening.

The smart money is preparing for Trumpflation

Inflation is coming down under Biden. Many economists think it could go back up if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

finance.yahoo.com

The working class is always… working.

 

[Bonasababy]

The working class is always… working.

For better wages on average than before. The key is whether wages have kept up with inflation. It's a complex answer, depending on where you live and work and what you have for options, but Covid brought a lot of changes. The old model of going to work at a factory or the town business for your entire life is long gone. People are much more able to seek jobs that pay better, have better benefits, or both, as the market for labor is high and will only get stronger. And people are willing to leave a job for something better much more than they used to. We are not making enough babies to fill future job needs that won't change--and--unless we see major immigration policy changes--aren't bringing enough new people in to supply the need for jobs.

 

[SAJ-99]

aren't bringing enough new people in to supply the need for jobs.

AI baby!!! joking, but not joking. If McDonalds can't get AI to take an order, there will still be fast food jobs available. Some will need to add that to the retirement vision.

McDonald’s ditches AI order system after bacon ice cream mix up

Also, the US government has targeted both Adobe and TikTok for legal action, while Nvidia has become the world's most valuable company

techinformed.com

 

[Bonasababy]

I'd gladly allow my image to be used in AI technology to sell burgers, if I can get paid without even being there that would be my dream retirement gig!

 

[Rie Bread]

For better wages on average than before. The key is whether wages have kept up with inflation. It's a complex answer, depending on where you live and work and what you have for options, but Covid brought a lot of changes. The old model of going to work at a factory or the town business for your entire life is long gone. People are much more able to seek jobs that pay better, have better benefits, or both, as the market for labor is high and will only get stronger. And people are willing to leave a job for something better much more than they used to. We are not making enough babies to fill future job needs that won't change--and--unless we see major immigration policy changes--aren't bringing enough new people in to supply the need for jobs.

interesting perspective but I’d say the people who have money are doing fine and the poeple who live pay check to pay check aren’t as well off.

Anyway regardless of the economy there’s always was to make money in the stock market

 

[Bonasababy]

In the market, yes, but stocks as in individual stocks is or should be an experts game--and anyone can easily beat the experts with a recurring investment into a retirement fund with good options selected to invest in.

Some wise words seen in a fidelity article talking about how perception of the economy doesn't match the reality...

"If you're making investment decisions based on an understanding of the economy that's not aligned to the underlying data, you may miss out on an important opportunity for growth potential. "If you feel that the economy and the market aren't doing well, even as things are actually OK, you may decide to invest more conservatively," says Malwal. "In that case, it may take longer to reach your financial goals. Or if you stay away from the markets for too long, it can potentially put certain goals practically out of reach."

 

[SAJ-99]

interesting perspective but I’d say the people who have money are doing fine and the poeple who live pay check to pay check aren’t as well off.

That has always been the case. Being poor sucks. Being rich may also suck, but at least the money makes it easier. I just find it interesting how everyone cares so much about the poor now. Must be an election year thing. Add to that it doesn’t take much effort to find a HT thread with heated arguments on unions and college degrees, both of which do a better job making sure worker incomes keep pace. Sign of the times.

 

[Rie Bread]

Speaking of individual stocks I found myself buying alphabet and Microsoft and apple. No major positions but just a nibble, clicked that dividen reinvest and probably gonna forget about it.

 

[longbow51]

That has always been the case. Being poor sucks. Being rich may also suck, but at least the money makes it easier. I just find it interesting how everyone cares so much about the poor now. Must be an election year thing. Add to that it doesn’t take much effort to find a HT thread with heated arguments on unions and college degrees, both of which do a better job making sure worker incomes keep pace. Sign of the times.

I grew up very poor (think having to buy a new tire or car battery being a major disaster poor), and I'm betting a fair number of folks pretty comfortable now did too. You never forget it though, and have empathy for those in similar plights. Elections have little to do with it. Trump and Biden are both equally guilty for causing inflation.

 

[SAJ-99]

I grew up very poor (think having to buy a new tire or car battery being a major disaster poor), and I'm betting a fair number of folks pretty comfortable now did too. You never forget it though, and have empathy for those in similar plights. Elections have little to do with it. Trump and Biden are both equally guilty for causing inflation.

I too grew up poor. I just don't remember anyone caring much. No one cared much about my future. Not sure what change vs today other than social media? I do remember some cuts to a lot public welfare programs and education programs that hurt me specifically. But I can argue from an economic perspective both for and against them. I guess my point is, arguing them on social media isn't valuable. We need to debate real solutions, not who gets the check.

 

[antelopedundee]

That has always been the case. Being poor sucks. Being rich may also suck, but at least the money makes it easier. I just find it interesting how everyone cares so much about the poor now. Must be an election year thing. Add to that it doesn’t take much effort to find a HT thread with heated arguments on unions and college degrees, both of which do a better job making sure worker incomes keep pace. Sign of the times.

Money can't buy happiness, but it can buy some pretty nice misery.

 

[Rie Bread]

Virtu signaling is a modern art these days

 

[Sytes]

Money can't buy happiness, but it can buy some pretty nice misery.

Or some really nice toys, adventures, etc.

Misery termed for some. The fact is we each hold our mental destiny.