Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

No, because I see the situation we are in and I know how we got here. Despite BHR's claims, the transition to renewables will continue regardless of China-made solar panels, or India-made solar panel, or Alabama-made solar panels. It does contribute to general economic growth (as every transition to new technology does) and it makes the US less dependent on other countries. We can scream "energy independence" all we want, but being tied to a globally produced commodity and not being the low-cost producer is a bad situation.

Wrong thread for this discussion. BHR has been presented a lot of data on other threads and just chooses to ignore it. Now, back to the markets...
The transition will go forward, when and if it makes economic sense. The markets will ultimately decide what wins and what does not.
 
Current example of market deciding what is not making the cut.......

 
No, because I see the situation we are in and I know how we got here. Despite BHR's claims, the transition to renewables will continue regardless of China-made solar panels, or India-made solar panel, or Alabama-made solar panels. It does contribute to general economic growth (as every transition to new technology does) and it makes the US less dependent on other countries. We can scream "energy independence" all we want, but being tied to a globally produced commodity and not being the low-cost producer is a bad situation.

Wrong thread for this discussion. BHR has been presented a lot of data on other threads and just chooses to ignore it. Now, back to the markets...
Scream, we're not even whispering energy independence. We're begging regimes diametrically opposed to us...and that is back to the markets.
 
And it makes sense to you because it does align with your politics. We are subject to whims, incompetence, and ideological preference, globally or nationally, regardless. There is no evil policy vs perfect by default policy.
I like Carter's speech but he cuts right to the point without all the window dressing... I guess folks realized you have to add ample sugar to medicine.

We waste A LOT of energy, [insert hunting out of corolla joke] and we have been once again been brought back to a similar position to the 70s.

Certainly the shale boom has secured our short term energy independence, but it is short term. Especially if we aren't in fact at peak oil consumption. Reserve curves look wildly different depending on usage.

You're spot on with solar and China, there really isn't a one technology to fix it all approach, but that doesn't mean the status quo is tenable.

I think if we are being real, it is in our (US) best interest to become a large energy exporter, that means doing everything we can to reduce consumption, to develop alternatives, and to build export infrastructure.

I'd be a proponent of a pipeline out of the Marcellus + LNG terminal, a new west coast terminal, but then also a lot more residential solar, nuclear, fuel efficiency standards and EVs.

There is an incredible amount of BS in the energy conversation; NE is ostensibly full send on Green, but at the same time still using fuel oil instead of NG, even though the one of the largest gas fields in the world is right there, simply converting everything to gas (domestic + electricity generation) would reduce our carbo foot print dramatically and actually help us hit Paris Climate accord targets.

So in fact more OG on the east coast is actually the "climate" solution.

I like Carter's speech again, because it was pragmatic... at a time before the Bakken and Shale it was pro-coal.

Not sure I totally agree with the Rice bros on everything, and I think the presentation oversells the idea a bit (fossil fuels are in fact not renewable and limited) but I think this slide conceptually is spot on.

1665152679996.png
 
I like Carter's speech but he cuts right to the point without all the window dressing... I guess folks realized you have to add ample sugar to medicine.

We waste A LOT of energy, [insert hunting out of corolla joke] and we have been once again been brought back to a similar position to the 70s.

Certainly the shale boom has secured our short term energy independence, but it is short term. Especially if we aren't in fact at peak oil consumption. Reserve curves look wildly different depending on usage.

You're spot on with solar and China, there really isn't a one technology to fix it all approach, but that doesn't mean the status quo is tenable.

I think if we are being real, it is in our (US) best interest to become a large energy exporter, that means doing everything we can to reduce consumption, to develop alternatives, and to build export infrastructure.

I'd be a proponent of a pipeline out of the Marcellus + LNG terminal, a new west coast terminal, but then also a lot more residential solar, nuclear, fuel efficiency standards and EVs.

There is an incredible amount of BS in the energy conversation; NE is ostensibly full send on Green, but at the same time still using fuel oil instead of NG, even though the one of the largest gas fields in the world is right there, simply converting everything to gas (domestic + electricity generation) would reduce our carbo foot print dramatically and actually help us hit Paris Climate accord targets.

So in fact more OG on the east coast is actually the "climate" solution.

I like Carter's speech again, because it was pragmatic... at a time before the Bakken and Shale it was pro-coal.

Not sure I totally agree with the Rice bros on everything, and I think the presentation oversells the idea a bit (fossil fuels are in fact not renewable and limited) but I think this slide conceptually is spot on.

View attachment 243284
A lot of good comments and observations here @wllm . I agree with most of it.
 
Mixed messages from the administration.

There is also a major market component to that, no one is paying for land right now. I think if you compared private leases to federal you'd see similar trends. Most MA activity has been solely focused on PDP value, and budgets are going towards drilling with very little land $s.

NM and maybe offshore? Are the only places I think you could actually sell fed leases today.

Harder to define, but I think a more accurate measure of an administrations stance towards OG would be on the actual permitting of wells.

We have a bunch of threads on why it's actually a good thing, but it is a fact that a 2,000 BOEd well in WY isn't as economic as a 1,000 BOEd well in OK because of all the state and federal stipulations. If you can only drill for half the year, and if it's extremely difficult have a stable drill schedule you aren't going to get development, and that means less service companies, which means higher costs to drill... if your Cactus Drilling why send rigs to WY that will run intermittently when they can run 24/7/365 in other states.

I'm not entirely sure if the BLM policy has changed all that much Trump to Biden in that respect, certainly when Biden first came into office, but it has opened up.

There is also the fact that almost every BLM lease sale becomes the target of an environmental lawsuit. The most recent Powder lease sale was super anemic and I think that was part of it, who wants to pay for a lease that's going to be wrapped up in court for 5 years.
 
The market with a boost from Putin and OPEC.
I’m not sure if you’re aware but we do have a little bit of oil here.
The electrical grid will not support the transition as you put it. As much as rolling blackouts sound like the super fun time in the Kansas summer heat I’m not really interested.
Only being able to drive 100 miles while pulling a trailer with my pick up, I’m not interested.
If they actually wanted to fix the problem and not line the pockets of the Chinese companies there are so heavily invested in they would like heavily into nuclear energy. It still doesn’t change that the electrical grid in most of the country is two steps above dog crap.

Oil and natural gas are the answer now and will be into the foreseeable future.
 
The future is harnessing power.

The minerals for such are dominated by China. U.S. and China economic wars will dramatically shift when that time comes.
U.S. needs to pull it's head out of the sand regarding "Clean Energy" and focus on nuclear energy. This is the means to contend with the upcoming new leading world power.
meh, I'll be ashes in some old remnants of a fire ring by then however our children will find arm twisting when the balance of world power shifts to China.

My dog wagged and distracted me briefly when I saw this "FACT SHEET".

Biden-Harris Administration, Companies Announce Major Investments to Expand Domestic Critical Minerals Supply Chain, Breaking Dependence on China and Boosting Sustainable Practices


And to keep this on market mojo:

ETF: LIT and NLR

my two coppers
 
I’m not sure if you’re aware but we do have a little bit of oil here.
Well aware. See my previous post saying being a relatively high-cost producer of a global commodity is not a good position to be in. We are price a price-taker, rather than price-maker. Only thing that saves us is almost all the trades continue to be settled in USD.

The rest I generally agree with, in principle at least. The answer is "All of the above."...or 85% of us have to go. :)

Unlike Rand Paul, I believe the US government has a role. Just like it had role in the Alaska Pipeline, and the development of hydraulic fracking, and all the other things we enjoy today a label with the fantastical belief that our 'free-market economy' worked perfectly to get it to us. I also believe in American ingenuity that will drive technological improvement in solar panel efficiency, and the build of small scale nuclear, and energy storage, and more efficient electrical grids. But none of it will be free...
 
Problem #1 with nuclear is cost. It is expensive.
Problem #2 opposition.
Problem #3 as the Ukraine invasion is highlighting, security.

I will be dead before these issues get resolved.
 
Well aware. See my previous post saying being a relatively high-cost producer of a global commodity is not a good position to be in. We are price a price-taker, rather than price-maker. Only thing that saves us is almost all the trades continue to be settled in USD.
Not to mention how problematic it is to believe in the reserve reporting of authoritarian dictatorships, there is a non-zero chance that the Saudi's have 10% the reserves they claim, and or Russia.

Kinda goes to your point about why the 2MM wasn't a 1MM cut.

Personally I'd rather the US trend towards a Norway model of energy independence.
 
Back to the topic of what people are buying today. Energy is up and Nasdaq is down, and you only get mugged when you short American o&g........

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TPH just initiated coverage on PR with a target price of $10... good little run for them this week. Who knows what commodity price does but I could see it going above that.
 

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