Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

Similar to my phobia of calling to bull elk, even during the rut, while continuing to glass... sometimes you have to reassess your opinions and be comfortable being wrong. I called in 3 bulls this year for various partners. Not how I thought it would go down, but you can't ignore the facts
 
BigHornRam said:
If you are buying today, I would look at today's fundamentals. Not by looking at the rear view mirror. Dividends, P/E ratio, ect.
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I am buying tech hand over fist. Because tech never stops. It is the future. The market is driven by the future. And while you're calling it the "rear view mirror", I'll call it learning from history. Tech tanks, tech booms, and over the long run, it's destroy fundamentals.

I'd take AMD at 60$, even if it means another 30% loss this year, over any... and I mean ANY O&G stock over the next 5 years.
 
neffa3 said:
I am buying tech hand over fist. Because tech never stops. It is the future. The market is driven by the future. And while you're calling it the "rear view mirror", I'll call it learning from history. Tech tanks, tech booms, and over the long run, it's destroy fundamentals.

I'd take AMD at 60$, even if it means another 30% loss this year, over any... and I mean ANY O&G stock over the next 5 years.
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5 years and we can compare how it pans out. You go your way, and I will go mine. Good luck amigo!
 
wllm said:
Not to mention how problematic it is to believe in the reserve reporting of authoritarian dictatorships, there is a non-zero chance that the Saudi's have 10% the reserves they claim, and or Russia.

Kinda goes to your point about why the 2MM wasn't a 1MM cut.

Personally I'd rather the US trend towards a Norway model of energy independence.
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Would you mind expanding on that, thanks
 
neffa3 said:
I'd take AMD at 60$, even if it means another 30% loss this year, over any... and I mean ANY O&G stock over the next 5 years.
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Right now o&g stocks have great fundamentals and AMD does not. If in a year or two that changes and AMD business improves, I would look at buying it. If the stocks I own today decline, i will sell them. If they continue to perform, I will keep them. Crazy investment stategy!
 
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wllm said:
TPH just initiated coverage on PR with a target price of $10... good little run for them this week. Who knows what commodity price does but I could see it going above that.
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You better hope it goes above that. If it went to $10 you would make 7%. WS analysts are clowns. You should sign up for BHR's newsletter for stock tips.

You know this, so I post for @BigHornRam. O&G has the same problem as everyone else. Labor shortages. When I see a driller going down to the unemployment office and saying "I will hire and train you and you and you right NOW." I will buy that stock. Until then, I figure the easy money has been made and it is almost entirely dependent on the market price of the commodity.
 
SAJ-99 said:
You better hope it goes above that. If it went to $10 you would make 7%. WS analysts are clowns. You should sign up for BHR's newsletter for stock tips.

You know this, so I post for @BigHornRam. O&G has the same problem as everyone else. Labor shortages. When I see a driller going down to the unemployment office and saying "I will hire and train you and you and you right NOW." I will buy that stock. Until then, I figure the easy money has been made and it is almost entirely dependent on the market price of the commodity.
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Honestly I'm surprised FANG or the like hasn't taken them out.
 
SAJ-99 said:
You better hope it goes above that. If it went to $10 you would make 7%. WS analysts are clowns. You should sign up for BHR's newsletter for stock tips.

You know this, so I post for @BigHornRam. O&G has the same problem as everyone else. Labor shortages. When I see a driller going down to the unemployment office and saying "I will hire and train you and you and you right NOW." I will buy that stock. Until then, I figure the easy money has been made and it is almost entirely dependent on the market price of the commodity.
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Last week you were negative Nellie talking about big declines in employment. Today we have labor shortages. I think you just like to argue....
 
Handlebar said:
Would you mind expanding on that, thanks
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Huge differences between US and Norway obviously, but most of there energy comes from non-OG sources and I think like 90%+ of all electricity generation, yet they are always in the running as a top 10 petroleum producing country.

1665161900822.png
1665161968411.png
 
wllm said:
Huge differences between US and Norway obviously, but most of there energy comes from non-OG sources and I think like 90%+ of all electricity generation, yet they are always in the running as a top 10 petroleum producing country.

View attachment 243318
View attachment 243319
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That's what I was thinking. They generate much of their electricity with hydro.
 
BigHornRam said:
Last week you were negative Nellie talking about big declines in employment. Today we have labor shortages. I think you just like to argue...
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I said we need to see big declines in employment, not that we were. Today's report not showing it either. That is the problem. The JOLTS data is the first sign of any weakness, but openings declining and people being laid off are entirely different things. I forgive you for misreading what I was saying. It happens in retirement. I certainly hope your whaling oil and horse and buggy stocks go up.
 
SAJ-99 said:
I said we need to see big declines in employment, not that we were. Today's report not showing it either. That is the problem. The JOLTS data is the first sign of any weakness, but openings declining and people being laid off are entirely different things. I forgive you for misreading what I was saying. It happens in retirement. I certainly hope your whaling oil and horse and buggy stocks go up.
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We really need a smile icon . . .
 
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