2024 Colorado Draw Results Thread
- Thread starter Hawk Tuah
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WildWill
Well-known member
They release a species a day believe moose is usually first so should be the 28th.
Khunter
Well-known member
No but it is printed on back page of hunting regs with all species.
I don't want to steal @TOGIE thunder, but I try and run a similar model some years, just started it yesterday at the airport.
I only looked at:
- Resident Ram or E/S Tags in 2024 (222 issued)
- Applications where the applicant had 3+0 or more points AND actually applied for a hunt code.
222 Resident Ram or E/S tags were drawn out of 8930 apps that met the above criteria.
So, if the draw was completely random, the "simple odds" for any given app would be 2.6%.
But it's obviously not completely random. The shakeout was:
3+10 points or more = 5% odds of drawing (drew 118 tags out of 2381 apps)
3+9 points or less = 1.6% odds of drawing (drew 104 tags out of 6549 apps)
note: I haven't completely error-checked my hand-keyed source data, might be off by 1 or 2 apps or tags, but it's 99% there.
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I thought one of the proposals from the working group was to replace the MSG weighted point system with a standard bonus point system. It would mostly be a moot point because the two systems yield almost the exact same results, as shown by the Toprut guy about 5 years ago. But people seem to grasp the idea of "more tickets in the hat", but not "divide my random# by some value". So maybe there would be less bitching and moaning? Oh who am I kidding.
Here is the article but it might only show up if you can log in.
Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference
Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.
www.toprut.com
mountainlaurel3
Well-known member
Got a ewe tag a couple hours away with an unusually long season, gonna have to do some scouting this spring/summer.
Been meaning to become a rmbs member, this'll be the impetus to make it happen. Can't make any of the events, though, it's a long way to the front range.
Been meaning to become a rmbs member, this'll be the impetus to make it happen. Can't make any of the events, though, it's a long way to the front range.
I thought one of the proposals from the working group was to replace the MSG weighted point system with a standard bonus point system. It would mostly be a moot point because the two systems yield almost the exact same results, as shown by the Toprut guy about 5 years ago. But people seem to grasp the idea of "more tickets in the hat", but not "divide my random# by some value". So maybe there would be less bitching and moaning? Oh who am I kidding.
Here is the article but it might only show up if you can log in.
Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference
Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.
sometimes i'm not sure the issue is whether we divide by a random number or toss more tickets in the hat.
i surmise that the primary issue leading to the most prominent and loudest bitching and moaning is that every high and max point holder thinks they deserve to be guaranteed a tag and seeing anyone but themselves ever draw gives them the heart attack that was probably gonna come tomorrow regardless.
Or they changed it for simplicity…
Have you ever tried to explain how the draw worked previously.
Well you get assigned an application number. Then we pick new values for each number 0-9. Example 1=7, 0=4, 7=3…
If you have more than three points you live on to the next level.
Then we take that number and… aw #*^@#*… I can’t even remember this morning. But it’s basically a bonus point system at the end of the day with a bunch of bs in the middle.
Statistically the chances will be the same but you will actually be able to explain how the process works.
D
Deleted member 52098
Guest
Could be wrong, but think he was more talking about the OIL issue and the ability to only apply for one species changes… rather than an issue with changing to names in a hat.Or they changed it for simplicity…
Have you ever tried to explain how the draw worked previously.
Well you get assigned an application number. Then we pick new values for each number 0-9. Example 1=7, 0=4, 7=3…
If you have more than three points you live on to the next level.
Then we take that number and… aw #*^@#*… I can’t even remember this morning. But it’s basically a bonus point system at the end of the day with a bunch of bs in the middle.
Statistically the chances will be the same but you will actually be able to explain how the process works.
But agreed, will be nice that everyone can actually explain how our draw works if the way the names are picked changes
but bonus points is the gateway drug to squaring bonus points, then cubing them, then still bitching and moaning because max point holders don't get their supposedly guaranteed tag, and then and then and then...
some people still don't even understand how hunt codes and A, B, and C tags work; that's their problem and catering to the lowest common IQ is no reason to tweak things that work great. i'm still adamantly against changing it.
Oh I know, I just wanted to make an attempt at how the draw works now and gave up. Everyone isn’t gonna be happy no matter what changes occur. I’ll keep applying for my dream hunt sheep tag and maybe some day I’ll get to hunt it. Until then I’ll just keep supporting rmbs and hope the sheep are still on the mountain! If it wasn’t for rmbs and a few others last year my chances could have become a whole lot worse!
WildWill
Well-known member
Most un Merican thing I've ever heard.
Yes, I totally get this. Some people just basically want a pure preference point system, especially if they have max points. It just doesn't work for very high demand hunts like MSG, but we're still arguing about it. It's either greed or ignorance, or both. The many types of draws between a purely random and strict preference point system are constantly getting flack for not being "fair", reminds me of the debate over taxes.
Here are the proposed license quotas by hunt code.
