SaskHunter
Well-known member
No, just regular coffee out of a mug. I add crack in it though.
Wyoming
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No, just regular coffee out of a mug. I add crack in it though.
Elkmagnet
Well-known member
Long shot was aiming for the Bighorns with 6pp special draw. Shot a branch 10 feet from my muzzle.
3 pts did not get you a general elk license in special draw????????
45.53%
I called WGFD and the girl couldn't grasp what I was asking. I finally gave up.
When I look at draw data from last years random draw and the quota is 3, and there were 8 first choice applicants, one would assume the draw odds are 37.5%.
But, if the 8 first choice applicants are all party applications or if any are party applications with 3 individual hunters, 1 applicant would fill that draw. This makes it impossible to figure draw odds in the random draw doesn't it???
If the first applicant drawn in the random draw is actually a party of 3, then my draw odds were 12.5%. Am I confused again?
When I look at draw data from last years random draw and the quota is 3, and there were 8 first choice applicants, one would assume the draw odds are 37.5%.
But, if the 8 first choice applicants are all party applications or if any are party applications with 3 individual hunters, 1 applicant would fill that draw. This makes it impossible to figure draw odds in the random draw doesn't it???
If the first applicant drawn in the random draw is actually a party of 3, then my draw odds were 12.5%. Am I confused again?
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i believe if a party of three applies they still show up in the stats as three applicants, not one applicant with three hidden within it.
i don't know if you can apply as a party in the random? can you?
edit: i'm thinking reduced price random. general elk random you go in no matter how you apply, so party apps would end up there.
That cant be accurate because if thats true, it is way better draw odds as a party because if one person is drawn, the rest in the party are drawn. Wyoming adds quotas to accommodate party draws.
it wouldn't be where if anyone in the party draws the party gets a tag. the party still has one app number or party leader ID that dictates if the party draws. but a party of three should still show up as three applicants in the stats (i would bet).
who actually knows how wyo handles parties? @SnowyMountaineer @BuzzH ?
two things i think i'm pretty darn sure of: your odds are not better as a party, and wyo does not add tags to accommodate parties.
how wyo handles parties in random draws i'm not sure.
If 2 quotas are left and a party of 3 are drawn, they all 3 get tags. WGFD told me that and I read it on their web site
kwyeewyk
Well-known member
Technically the party applicants have a slightly lower chance than individuals, but doesn't seem that way. Say the quota is 5 and there's 10 applicants, 5 in one party and 5 individuals. Draw odds would calculate as 50%, and without knowing the specific information about number of applicants in parties and what order the parties are assigned, you can't calculate the exact odds.
WY does exceed quotas for parties. Each individual and each party is assigned a number low to high and tags are allocated in order until none remain.
If the party of 5 happens to get number 1, none of the individual applicants would get a tag and that makes it seem like lower than 50% odds. But the party gets lumped, so if the party gets the high number assigned, everyone in the party has a high number and you don't compete with each individually for the low number.
So to answer your question, no you can't calculate exact draw odds unless you know the number of parties, but it's a pretty small variation so the calculated odds are pretty close and provide context for difficulty to draw.
Matthew57
Well-known member
Maybe this isn't the right thread to ask but i'm starting to research deer and antelope units in Wyoming. If you were to look at a hunt that has a total quota of 225 tags for example, if i calculated right that means there are 4.5 tags available in the nonresident special draw pool. Does Wyoming round that number up or down when the actual tags are drawn?
kwyeewyk
Well-known member
I assume they round down because they can't exceed 16%. Here's my math:
225 x .16 = 36, 40% to special 36 x .4 = 14.4, so probably 14 for special, 22 for regular draws, 75%/25% PP/random so 14 x .75 = 10.8 round up to 11 for special PP and 3 for special random.
Matthew57
Well-known member
Thanks! I was calculating using 20% rather than 16%.
Cheesehead
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God this thread needs HUNTTALK MAN to make sense of it all, like Bob the Garbage Man explaining how to catch a fish
kwyeewyk
Well-known member
Oh yeah 16% for elk sorry, so 18 tags for special, not sure how they'd round the 13.5/4.5 split.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
It really is disheartening to read these responses knowing the time Randy has put in making videos.
Yes, every 1st choice app is shown in the demand reports.
Yes, every 1st choice app is shown in the demand reports.
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WapitiBob
Well-known member
NR landowners draw first so you're numbers are off before you get to the special/regular split.
WapitiBob
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You can't apply "in the Random"
Cheesehead
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Oh, don’t worry, those videos + GoHunt et all are working. That’s why the draw numbers tick up each year.
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