Ukraine / Russia

[BrentD]

Hot of the presses. Apparently birth rates won't save us.

U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century

The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100.

www.census.gov

NOTHING is going to save us. But that aside, growth has relied on immigration for a long time now.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Hot of the presses. Apparently birth rates won't save us.

U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century

The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100.

www.census.gov

My 50 yrs + 7 to spare

Who knows, by then robots may make population irrelevant . . . https://movies.disney.com/wall-e

 

[VikingsGuy]

NOTHING is going to save us.

OK eeyore . . . https://winniethepooh.disney.com/eeyore

 

[VikingsGuy]

. . . growth has relied on immigration for a long time now.

If the Anti-Immigration folks got their way, the demographic collapse of US would begin in this decade. Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. A nation of prosperous immigrants cutting off immigration to trigger their own decline - we may be many things but we are not rocket scientists.

 

[noharleyyet]

If the Anti-Immigration folks got their way, the demographic collapse of US would begin in this decade. Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. A nation of prosperous immigrants cutting off immigration to trigger their own decline - we may be many things but we are not rocket scientists.

I suppose Martha's Vineyard didn't riddle out that memo?

 

[Nameless Range]

If the Anti-Immigration folks got their way, the demographic collapse of US would begin in this decade. Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. A nation of prosperous immigrants cutting off immigration to trigger their own decline - we may be many things but we are not rocket scientists.

I have not read his most recent book, but I have listed to Peter Zeihan on a half dozen podcasts. Using demography and the structure and trends of age pyramids, he predicts the demographic collapse of a hell of a lot of countries in the next decade or two. In fact, he uses the aforementioned logic to explain Russia's current aggression - basically, they have less than a decade before their pyramid inverts, and they will not have the resources to wage wars of the magnitude they currently are. This is their last chance. His predictions are pretty bold, and I have read some interesting rebuttals, but at least he makes them. One of the most meaningful metrics to know whether or not an expert actually knows what they are talking about is whether or not they can make predictions that lean to truth.

Relatedly, he points to the United States strength in allowing massive amounts of immigration. Despite what you see on TV, we are one of the most immigrant-friendly nations in the world. I think that is great, but some of the current discourse would have one believe that a desire for a more selective form of immigration - a belief that the world is full of high powered folks who want to move here, and we should select for them over others - is somehow anti immigration. Not saying that is what you are saying at all, but it seems to dumb down a lot of potentially interesting conversations in other venues.

I do wonder though, what is the long game of immigration and growth - for anyone.

 

[Handlebar]

If the Anti-Immigration folks got their way, the demographic collapse of US would begin in this decade. Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. A nation of prosperous immigrants cutting off immigration to trigger their own decline - we may be many things but we are not rocket scientists.

Overwhelmingly the new arrivals are not rocket scientists, You will never have a sane immigration policy in this country until white collar workers are the one that are being affected

 

[VikingsGuy]

I suppose Martha's Vineyard didn't riddle out that memo?

Political sound bites are uninteresting. Large-scale demographic trends aren't impressed with sideshows.

 

[SAJ-99]

I have not read his most recent book, but I have listed to Peter Zeihan on a half dozen podcasts. Using demography and the structure and trends of age pyramids, he predicts the demographic collapse of a hell of a lot of countries in the next decade or two. In fact, he uses the aforementioned logic to explain Russia's current aggression - basically, they have less than a decade before their pyramid inverts, and they will not have the resources to wage wars of the magnitude they currently are. This is their last chance. His predictions are pretty bold, and I have read some interesting rebuttals, but at least he makes them. One of the most meaningful metrics to know whether or not an expert actually knows what they are talking about is whether or not they can make predictions that lean to truth.

Relatedly, he points to the United States strength in allowing massive amounts of immigration. Despite what you see on TV, we are one of the most immigrant-friendly nations in the world. I think that is great, but some of the current discourse would have one believe that a desire for a more selective form of immigration - a belief that the world is full of high powered folks who want to move here, and we should select for them over others - is somehow anti immigration. Not saying that is what you are saying at all, but it seems to dumb down a lot of potentially interesting conversations in other venues.

I do wonder though, what is the long game of immigration and growth - for anyone.

What is his definition of a "demographic collapse"? When I hear predictions about what x demographic change will mean, I look at Japan.

Overwhelmingly the new arrivals are not rocket scientists, You will never have a sane immigration policy in this country until white collar workers are the one that are being affected

White collar workers have competed with foreign workers for decades and it hasn't helped the immigration discussion. From what I hear, America doesn't need rocket scientists, it needs plumbers, electricians, roofers, etc. If you walk 1000miles to get to America, I suspect working an 8hr day doesn't seem like big deal.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Overwhelmingly the new arrivals are not rocket scientists, You will never have a sane immigration policy in this country until white collar workers are the one that are being affected

Please do open up the flood gates of scientists, engineers, business leaders, doctors and lawyers -- we will benefit greatly from their contributions during their peak working years.

But also, open up the gates for anyone willing to work and build a family here - that will benefit us for generations. Today they are workers, neighbors and consumers, and more importantly they are the parents of future "engineers etc".

We need a logical orderly immigration system to succeed as a nation. Immigration has been our greatest strength over the last 200 years. We need a system designed to maximize human success and well being. One that takes as many new comers as the economy and infrastructure can manage. I don't see either party offering anything resembling that. One uses fear of the "other" and outright racist rhetoric to generate votes from some, while the other panders to an expanded welfare state in hopes of buying future voters. Not good at all. But not the immigrants fault - that mess is on us.

 

[VikingsGuy]

What is his definition of a "demographic collapse"? When I hear predictions about what x demographic change will mean, I look at Japan.

I am not aware of a universal definition of "x%". But at somepoint if the ratio of people young enough to work and take care those too young or too elderly to work dips too low and our current economic systems don't work. At some point if one worker has to support one retiree - the economy is unworkable. There is a tipping point that then drives something resembling hyper "stagflation" followed by mass "deflation". Automation may defer some of it, but history does not tell a happy story about nations that "depopulate".

 

[BrentD]

Overwhelmingly the new arrivals are not rocket scientists, You will never have a sane immigration policy in this country until white collar workers are the one that are being affected

We don't need rocket scientists. We need roofers.

 

[noharleyyet]

Political sound bites are uninteresting. Large-scale demographic trends aren't impressed with sideshows.

Bullshit nimby'ism

 

[VikingsGuy]

Bullshit nimby'ism

I agree but all a sideshow with real issues at hand.

 

[Handlebar]

We don't need rocket scientists. We need roofers.

Unless you are a roofer or a sheet rocker or a plumber watching your wages go down. If we were flooded with ecologist, lawyers and finance people we would have a sane system, but as long as guys can get a cheaper roof or low-cost yard maintenance it is ok. Or as long as they stay in some Border state and dont move to any of these so-called sanctuary cities.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Unless you are a roofer or a sheet rocker or a plumber watching your wages go down. If we were flooded with ecologist, lawyers and finance people we would have a sane system, but as long as guys can get a cheaper roof or low-cost yard maintenance it is ok. Or as long as they stay in some Border state and dont move to any of these so-called sanctuary cities.

Please send me contact info for plumbers and sheet rockers whose wages have dropped. We wait months for such services up here and pay an ever increasing premium when we can find them.

 

[Handlebar]

Please send me contact info for plumbers and sheet rockers whose wages have dropped. We wait months for such services up here and pay an ever increasing premium when we can find them.

Maybe your right. We should spend more money (cause debt is good) allow everybody to come in (cause immigration is our demographic salvation) engage in near endless overseas conflicts (because being the worlds cop has made us safer).

 

[VikingsGuy]

Maybe your right. We should spend more money (cause debt is good) allow everybody to come in (cause immigration is our demographic salvation) engage in near endless overseas conflicts (because being the worlds cop has made us safer).

I am fairly comfortable with my positions on all three issues you mix together. Isolationism doesn't work, kitchen table math doesn't drive good fiscal policy, and unless you are enrolled in one of the local tribes I suggest you connect with your ancestors about their view on immigration.

 

[Nameless Range]

What is his definition of a "demographic collapse"? When I hear predictions about what x demographic change will mean, I look at Japan.

White collar workers have competed with foreign workers for decades and it hasn't helped the immigration discussion. From what I hear, America doesn't need rocket scientists, it needs plumbers, electricians, roofers, etc. If you walk 1000miles to get to America, I suspect working an 8hr day doesn't seem like big deal.

@VikingsGuy did a good job explaining it I think. It’s really a bad economic situation driven by demographics.

I’m not an expert, and like I said, there are folks who have interesting rebuttals, but here’s an eight minute video, roughly summarizing it.

 

[VikingsGuy]

@VikingsGuy did a good job explaining it I think. It’s really a bad economic situation driven by demographics.

I’m not an expert, and like I said, there are folks who have interesting rebuttals, but here’s an eight minute video, roughly summarizing it.

I love the part where he explains that the right way to figure out how many kids to have always leaves you with one too many