The Rinella Effect

[longbow51]

I don't watch Rogan all that much, but when I have, it seems his primary sin is being inquisitive. He won't settle for sound bites. Doesn't fit easily into left or right boxes, which is anathema to some.

As far as bowhunting goes, yes, like many rich people, he goes on guided hunts. He shoots his bow every day, though, and unlike Rinella and most of the other bowhunting "stars" I'll bet he has far fewer "we'll find it in the morning" events in comparison. That's what sickens me about most of those types of shows.

 

[Mtn Dawg]

Dunno, it was good to hear Dan Gates from CRWM get broader exposure on the MeatEater podcast a few days ago. I think the more publicity hunting in Colorado gets right now the better, be it from MeatEater's or Randy's platforms or anybody else...seeing as the anti-hunting groups now appear to be speedwalking their goal of ending it entirely in this state. Just a cautionary word to you Montanans and Wyomingites, it's on your doorstep too, and pretty soon you'll be glad somebody with a big platform is toe-to-toe with the likes of HSUS and Carol Baskin when they bring this crap up the highway from Colorado. Social media has its plusses and minuses, but I don't think Matt Rinella's tactic of "keep your head down and they'll leave you alone to hunt" is going to fly in this day and age. I'd sacrifice some draw odds to know that my kids can go hunting at all.

This^^^

With all due respect for other's opinions I believe if we want to play the blame game we should be blaming social media and its corrosive effect on culture. It would be impossible for any one person to live a completely virtuous life while fully engaging all of the aspects of it. So while it may makes us feel better to call these guys out for what we disagree with we should also be honest enough to realize that they do a tremendous amount of good will foot work. Case in point is the Colorado ballot initiative debacle happening right now. Quite literally there is an attempt to eliminate hunting altogether from our lives. We as hunters and sportsman need to do a better job of banding together as a unified response to fight this. But beyond that we need to show why we are relevant to the general layperson. What we do and why does not register in the thoughts of the average voter. Rinella is doing this at its most basic level. Hunting to acquire food. In the process he also shows some of the other aspects of it that are worthy and honorable. Randy Newberg eats, sleeps and drinks protecting our rights. his efforts to build coalitions to advocate for our rights are significant. Both of their platforms fund this to a large extent. They are gathering places for like minded people to connect. If any one of us disagrees with their platforms and have a conversation about what you disagree with. it would be much more productive to go to the source rather than ranting about it.

 

[Ben Long]

Rogan is a glorified supplement salesmen. He’s entirely full of shit.

I like a fellow who makes his point bluntly.

 

[NR_Hunter]

I like a fellow who makes his point bluntly.

The directness is a blunt force instrument that usually won’t “win friends and influence people” but I’ll be damned if it isn’t expedient.

 

[mmw194287]

I downloaded the relevant spreadsheets to play devil's advocate and look at how bonus points have affected draw odds for the buffer zone over the past two years relative to the "Rinella effect."

The ten max bonus point holders who applied for the buffer zone had a collective 4,840 chances to draw. Last year those ten individuals had 4,410 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 430 times. Those with one fewer than max had 3,087 chances to draw. Last year those same seven individuals had 2,800 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 287 times. So the bonus points of those two groups alone expanded the pool by 717 chances in one year.

If we look at the cohort of Buffer Zone applicants who had two or more points in 2023 (i.e., the top 20 tiers of point holders), there are actually 7 fewer applicants in 2024 even while the overall number of applicants increased by 252. We could have hundreds of people jump in with 0, 1, even 2 points, and it wouldn't make any sort of meaningful difference in the odds.

The increase in chances (+717) among the top two tiers of point holders (only seventeen individuals) in just the last year exceeded the collective growth in chances (+504) among the bottom three tiers over the past two years (during which period of time the number of applicants in those three point tiers increased by 50+%).

Here's another one: In 2024, you'd need 17 bonus points to have odds better than a straight 5 (tags) in 1310 (apps) draw. You also would've needed 17 for the equivalent odds in 2022... even with the number of applicants increasing by 65% between 2022 and 2024. It'll likely bump up to 18 points next year if trends continue and again every few years after that.

My amateur interpretation is that even with a big swell in the number of low point applicants, the situation hasn't changed much for those at the top of the pile. For those at the bottom of the pile, the situation looks horrible....but that's because they're up against 70,000 "chances" in a pool with 1310 applicants, not because the pool of applicants jumped in the past two years.

In 2024, applicants with ten points or fewer made up 1,110 of the 1,310 total (84.7%). They had 21,999 chances out of the 70,300 (31.3%).

Applicants with 18 or more points made up 57 of the 1,310 total (4.3%). They had 22,167 chances out of the 70,300 (31.5%).

The tail will never wag the dog with this stuff. Big point holders are the only thing that matters in the big picture, and they don't seem to be "influenced" as easily.

IN FULL DISCLOSURE I WOULDN'T HAVE GONE TO ALL THIS TROUBLE IF I'D DRAWN MY MOUNTAIN GOAT TAG. I WAS SUPPOSED TO DRAW IT. IT WAS MY YEAR. I SHOULD JUST BE HAPPY AND LOOKING AT MAPS AND PICTURES OF BIG BOONER BILLIES INSTEAD OF EXCEL SPREADSHEETS. CERTAINLY IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. HOW COULD IT NOT? UNTHINKABLE.

 

[Southern Elk]

I downloaded the relevant spreadsheets to play devil's advocate and look at how bonus points have affected draw odds for the buffer zone over the past two years relative to the "Rinella effect."

The ten max bonus point holders who applied for the buffer zone had a collective 4,840 chances to draw. Last year those ten individuals had 4,410 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 430 times. Those with one fewer than max had 3,087 chances to draw. Last year those same seven individuals had 2,800 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 287 times. So the bonus points of those two groups alone expanded the pool by 717 chances in one year.

If we look at the cohort of Buffer Zone applicants who had two or more points in 2023 (i.e., the top 20 tiers of point holders), there are actually 7 fewer applicants in 2024 even while the overall number of applicants increased by 252. We could have hundreds of people jump in with 0, 1, even 2 points, and it wouldn't make any sort of meaningful difference in the odds.

The increase in chances (+717) among the top two tiers of point holders (only seventeen individuals) in just the last year exceeded the collective growth in chances (+504) among the bottom three tiers over the past two years (during which period of time the number of applicants in those three point tiers increased by 50+%).

Here's another one: In 2024, you'd need 17 bonus points to have odds better than a straight 5 (tags) in 1310 (apps) draw. You also would've needed 17 for the equivalent odds in 2022... even with the number of applicants increasing by 65% between 2022 and 2024. It'll likely bump up to 18 points next year if trends continue and again every few years after that.

My amateur interpretation is that even with a big swell in the number of low point applicants, the situation hasn't changed much for those at the top of the pile. For those at the bottom of the pile, the situation looks horrible....but that's because they're up against 70,000 "chances" in a pool with 1310 applicants, not because the pool of applicants jumped in the past two years.

In 2024, applicants with ten points or fewer made up 1,110 of the 1,310 total (84.7%). They had 21,999 chances out of the 70,300 (31.3%).

Applicants with 18 or more points made up 57 of the 1,310 total (4.3%). They had 22,167 chances out of the 70,300 (31.5%).

The tail will never wag the dog with this stuff. Big point holders are the only thing that matters in the big picture, and they don't seem to be "influenced" as easily.

IN FULL DISCLOSURE I WOULDN'T HAVE GONE TO ALL THIS TROUBLE IF I'D DRAWN MY MOUNTAIN GOAT TAG. I WAS SUPPOSED TO DRAW IT. IT WAS MY YEAR. I SHOULD JUST BE HAPPY AND LOOKING AT MAPS AND PICTURES OF BIG BOONER BILLIES INSTEAD OF EXCEL SPREADSHEETS. CERTAINLY IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. HOW COULD IT NOT? UNTHINKABLE.

 

[The Hedgehog]

This^^^

With all due respect for other's opinions I believe if we want to play the blame game we should be blaming social media and its corrosive effect on culture. It would be impossible for any one person to live a completely virtuous life while fully engaging all of the aspects of it. So while it may makes us feel better to call these guys out for what we disagree with we should also be honest enough to realize that they do a tremendous amount of good will foot work. Case in point is the Colorado ballot initiative debacle happening right now. Quite literally there is an attempt to eliminate hunting altogether from our lives. We as hunters and sportsman need to do a better job of banding together as a unified response to fight this. But beyond that we need to show why we are relevant to the general layperson. What we do and why does not register in the thoughts of the average voter. Rinella is doing this at its most basic level. Hunting to acquire food. In the process he also shows some of the other aspects of it that are worthy and honorable. Randy Newberg eats, sleeps and drinks protecting our rights. his efforts to build coalitions to advocate for our rights are significant. Both of their platforms fund this to a large extent. They are gathering places for like minded people to connect. If any one of us disagrees with their platforms and have a conversation about what you disagree with. it would be much more productive to go to the source rather than ranting about it.

May you be blessed with a Meateater cookbook this holiday season.

 

[perma]

May you be blessed with a Meateater cookbook Trivia Board Game this holiday season.

 

[Bigjay73]

The directness is a blunt force instrument that usually won’t “win friends and influence people” but I’ll be damned if it isn’t expedient.

Yeah, but being blunt on the webs is a pretty simple task

 

[NR_Hunter]

Yeah, but being blunt on the webs is a pretty simple task

why say many word when few word do trick

 

[Ought Six]

I downloaded the relevant spreadsheets to play devil's advocate and look at how bonus points have affected draw odds for the buffer zone over the past two years relative to the "Rinella effect."

The ten max bonus point holders who applied for the buffer zone had a collective 4,840 chances to draw. Last year those ten individuals had 4,410 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 430 times. Those with one fewer than max had 3,087 chances to draw. Last year those same seven individuals had 2,800 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 287 times. So the bonus points of those two groups alone expanded the pool by 717 chances in one year.

If we look at the cohort of Buffer Zone applicants who had two or more points in 2023 (i.e., the top 20 tiers of point holders), there are actually 7 fewer applicants in 2024 even while the overall number of applicants increased by 252. We could have hundreds of people jump in with 0, 1, even 2 points, and it wouldn't make any sort of meaningful difference in the odds.

The increase in chances (+717) among the top two tiers of point holders (only seventeen individuals) in just the last year exceeded the collective growth in chances (+504) among the bottom three tiers over the past two years (during which period of time the number of applicants in those three point tiers increased by 50+%).

Here's another one: In 2024, you'd need 17 bonus points to have odds better than a straight 5 (tags) in 1310 (apps) draw. You also would've needed 17 for the equivalent odds in 2022... even with the number of applicants increasing by 65% between 2022 and 2024. It'll likely bump up to 18 points next year if trends continue and again every few years after that.

My amateur interpretation is that even with a big swell in the number of low point applicants, the situation hasn't changed much for those at the top of the pile. For those at the bottom of the pile, the situation looks horrible....but that's because they're up against 70,000 "chances" in a pool with 1310 applicants, not because the pool of applicants jumped in the past two years.

In 2024, applicants with ten points or fewer made up 1,110 of the 1,310 total (84.7%). They had 21,999 chances out of the 70,300 (31.3%).

Applicants with 18 or more points made up 57 of the 1,310 total (4.3%). They had 22,167 chances out of the 70,300 (31.5%).

The tail will never wag the dog with this stuff. Big point holders are the only thing that matters in the big picture, and they don't seem to be "influenced" as easily.

IN FULL DISCLOSURE I WOULDN'T HAVE GONE TO ALL THIS TROUBLE IF I'D DRAWN MY MOUNTAIN GOAT TAG. I WAS SUPPOSED TO DRAW IT. IT WAS MY YEAR. I SHOULD JUST BE HAPPY AND LOOKING AT MAPS AND PICTURES OF BIG BOONER BILLIES INSTEAD OF EXCEL SPREADSHEETS. CERTAINLY IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. HOW COULD IT NOT? UNTHINKABLE.

Ok Steven

 

[cgasner1]

I downloaded the relevant spreadsheets to play devil's advocate and look at how bonus points have affected draw odds for the buffer zone over the past two years relative to the "Rinella effect."

The ten max bonus point holders who applied for the buffer zone had a collective 4,840 chances to draw. Last year those ten individuals had 4,410 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 430 times. Those with one fewer than max had 3,087 chances to draw. Last year those same seven individuals had 2,800 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 287 times. So the bonus points of those two groups alone expanded the pool by 717 chances in one year.

If we look at the cohort of Buffer Zone applicants who had two or more points in 2023 (i.e., the top 20 tiers of point holders), there are actually 7 fewer applicants in 2024 even while the overall number of applicants increased by 252. We could have hundreds of people jump in with 0, 1, even 2 points, and it wouldn't make any sort of meaningful difference in the odds.

The increase in chances (+717) among the top two tiers of point holders (only seventeen individuals) in just the last year exceeded the collective growth in chances (+504) among the bottom three tiers over the past two years (during which period of time the number of applicants in those three point tiers increased by 50+%).

Here's another one: In 2024, you'd need 17 bonus points to have odds better than a straight 5 (tags) in 1310 (apps) draw. You also would've needed 17 for the equivalent odds in 2022... even with the number of applicants increasing by 65% between 2022 and 2024. It'll likely bump up to 18 points next year if trends continue and again every few years after that.

My amateur interpretation is that even with a big swell in the number of low point applicants, the situation hasn't changed much for those at the top of the pile. For those at the bottom of the pile, the situation looks horrible....but that's because they're up against 70,000 "chances" in a pool with 1310 applicants, not because the pool of applicants jumped in the past two years.

In 2024, applicants with ten points or fewer made up 1,110 of the 1,310 total (84.7%). They had 21,999 chances out of the 70,300 (31.3%).

Applicants with 18 or more points made up 57 of the 1,310 total (4.3%). They had 22,167 chances out of the 70,300 (31.5%).

The tail will never wag the dog with this stuff. Big point holders are the only thing that matters in the big picture, and they don't seem to be "influenced" as easily.

IN FULL DISCLOSURE I WOULDN'T HAVE GONE TO ALL THIS TROUBLE IF I'D DRAWN MY MOUNTAIN GOAT TAG. I WAS SUPPOSED TO DRAW IT. IT WAS MY YEAR. I SHOULD JUST BE HAPPY AND LOOKING AT MAPS AND PICTURES OF BIG BOONER BILLIES INSTEAD OF EXCEL SPREADSHEETS. CERTAINLY IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. HOW COULD IT NOT? UNTHINKABLE.

Sucks for you but… the beauty in our draw system is the fact that you did not draw. Someone with way less points than you did I’d bet. So it’s not your year but that doesn’t mean on a different tag down the road you won’t luck into one and beat someone with max out. That’s the neat thing about Montana you always have a chance

 

[rogerthat]

Ok Steven

Wimpy Steve would have had to have scientist brother Matt crunch those numbers. He is too busy writing lyrics with his degree in composition

 

[DFS]

Wimpy Steve would have had to have scientist brother Matt crunch those numbers. He is too busy writing lyrics with his degree in composition

I feel like there is some Trump influence in this comment. What has the world come to.

 

[rogerthat]

I feel like there is some Trump influence in this comment. What has the world come to.

Long weekend in the sun….who knew I would get an orange tan

 

[Rob96]

In my 50's now but can remember back to when I was a kid and watching Bill Dance, Hank Parker, Jimmy Houston, Babe Winkelman and so forth. I actually watched these over Saturday morning cartoons.

 

[Bigjay73]

Lol, I'm in a hotel this weekend, it's the only time that I watch cable, and caught a Jimmy Houston show on Saturday morning. I haven't watched one of his shows in 20 years, he hasn't changed one bit

 

[The Hedgehog]

I miss the Roger Raglin and Chris Brackett shows.

 

[Gerald Martin]

I miss the Roger Raglin and Chris Brackett shows.

Were those hardcore wilderness hunters inspiration for your success?

 

[brockel]

I've been mildly interested in Rinella and Meateater. No longer.
In fact I'm pretty pissed at that DB for mentioning locations.
Case in point.
Powder River turkey hunting episode.
As a result there has been a virtual bomb of NR running all over that country this year. Any BMA with land on or near the river. The BMA I have hunted for 30 years in that vicinity has been pounded. Guys from the South and Midwest shooting anything to fill tags. I saw one jake and one mature Tom. Shitwipe on ridges I've never seen a boot track. The Knowlton area has always been a sleeper. Friend of mine hunting Ekalaka yesterday talked to some guys from Missouri who asked about Knowlton.
It's done. I'm done there.
Everyone go to Knowlton.
Good job Rinella.

Even our area which isn’t that great of Turkey hunting has been over ran with Turkey hunters this year. Looked like deer season here