Texas moves to a cubed loyalty point system

[noharleyyet]

This....in reverse

 

[lpcoutdoors]

That's how I think I see it, too. Let's say there are "only" 30 people right now with say, 25 bighorn points in Texas. One tag per year. So next year, there will be 29 people with 26 points (because presumably one of them draws this year). Year after that, 28 people with 27 points. And so on, and so forth. And from time to time, maybe someone with only 20 points gets lucky and against probability, draws. I think the point is, unless you currently have max or close to max points, like within 3 points of max (which we don't know what that is, by the way, because Texas), you have no realistic chance of ever drawing. No matter how long you live.

Man you wanna go bighorn hunting! I don't blame you, epic country out there. I quail hunted at Black Gap last Feb and kept hoping I'd see some bighorns, never did, but with so much country to see I didn't glass that much. Saw a sure enough monster mule deer though! And you make some good point on that limited tag, since only one. I wonder if there ought to be more, never would be a ton, but sheep are doing great in a number of ranges in the Trans Pecos, they say more than historic numbers in total, though not in all of the historic ranges.

Are you a member of the Texas Bighorn Society? They'd have a friend in you, passionate about sheep! You'd get to guarantee, through volunteer work like putting in guzzlers, that you got to experience sheep. Or head out to Black Gap and find us a sheep to just look at, stalk up on, and take pictures!

Anyway, glad you are passionate about the Texas public hunt program, it sure does need some work.

 

[bts09]

Are you a member of the Texas Bighorn Society?

I am.

Bighorns are just the easiest example in the Texas draw because of the extremely limited number of tags. That's why I keep using them as an example. Antelope would work, too. 10 tags for about 6000 applicants each year. So without accounting for the previous point system, your odds were already 1:600 (or, you know, worse than some states' bighorn draws). Factor in cubing, and yeah, that Texas bucket list hunt is gonna stay on my bucket list.

 

[bobbydean]

Surprised. I have respect for Texans' common sense. Guess everyone makes a mistake sometimes.

 

[lpcoutdoors]

I am.

Bighorns are just the easiest example in the Texas draw because of the extremely limited number of tags. That's why I keep using them as an example. Antelope would work, too. 10 tags for about 6000 applicants each year. So without accounting for the previous point system, your odds were already 1:600 (or, you know, worse than some states' bighorn draws). Factor in cubing, and yeah, that Texas bucket list hunt is gonna stay on my bucket list.

Awesome that you are a member, they do some great work, a model in many ways for other organizations! With you on the antelope too. And your examples have given me some policy initiatives to bring up before the Texas BHA policy committee and their advocacy with the state. Makes me think Texas could look at not squaring the very limited hunts, like Bighorns, as some other states do with the "big three". Also, the number of tags on some limited species, even if it means more places opened and or more game managed for, needs to be a priority. Lots of details to that, so I won't take your thread off too far, just using your points to drive that such a big part of this is limited quality and quantity of access and therefore tags.

Good talkin with ya!

 

[jmveverka]

The cubing points thing is just another silly method for trying to reward long-time applicants - not sure what was wrong with the loyalty point program - in general I think bonus point programs are the best system. Truly random lotteries offer no incentive for the guys who have bee putting in forever, true preference point systems have too much reward making it impossible to climb in the ranks fir newer hunters to the draw. Bonus point systems balance that out with the best of both worlds. Squaring and cubing throw that way out of line - similar to how the Maine moose draw allows a non-resident to purchase as many points as they want in a given year making it a raffle not a license draw.

I do think the way they quietly slipped this in this year may clear out a bunch of mid point holders because they may have applied for hunts that are more attainable (think 1,700 applicants instead of 5,000) and get vaulted ahead of others trying to draw. The high point guys have high points because they only apply for the truly trophy hunts.

As for the non-resident hate - I get it but in actuality if we had access to draw data my guess would be non-residents draw a tiny fraction of the tags. My son drew a Powderhorn youth hunt last year and I think they said we were the only non-residents there (could be mistaken on that).

 

[Justabirdwatcher]

I welcome the change since maybe I'll finally get drawn after accumulating over 27 points in the past 8 years and not getting drawn for a single hunt in all that time.

 

[bts09]

I do think the way they quietly slipped this in this year may clear out a bunch of mid point holders because they may have applied for hunts that are more attainable (think 1,700 applicants instead of 5,000) and get vaulted ahead of others trying to draw. The high point guys have high points because they only apply for the truly trophy hunts.

This, or more specifically, the lack of transparency, is troubling to me. For example, right now, the only information TPWD gives for these draws is the total number of applicants and the total number of permits available. For example, they would say last year for a certain hunt there were 1350 applicants for 8 tags. Or whatever. Well, that's incredibly misleading, especially now. Because many people will look at that and think, OK, long odds but not impossible odds. Without publishing the high points numbers, like how many people hold how many points, no one has any clue now what their actual (extremely low) odds are, and the only data published actually becomes misleading in my mind.

 

[jmveverka]

Without publishing the high points numbers, like how many people hold how many points, no one has any clue now what their actual (extremely low) odds are, and the only data published actually becomes misleading in my mind.

Yep, # of applicants means nothing when factoring points and means even less when cubing. All it tells you is how "in-demand" a particular hunt is. Do we know what a "max point" holder would be - when did TX first start tracking points? 27 years, 32 years, does anyone on here know that?

 

[Gr8bawana]

Where's Zim.....

 

[geetar]

Probably has 25 points in Texas so he’s good with it.

 

[bts09]

Resurrecting this thread. Three years into this cubed system. Has anyone had any luck coming across the data -- number of max point holders, median point holders, etc?

I guess anecdotally, has anyone in here drawn one of the super hard hunts (sheep, antelope) and if so, how many loyalty points did you have?

Probably time for a FOIA request.

 

[rmyoung1]

Resurrecting this thread. Three years into this cubed system. Has anyone had any luck coming across the data -- number of max point holders, median point holders, etc?

I guess anecdotally, has anyone in here drawn one of the super hard hunts (sheep, antelope) and if so, how many loyalty points did you have?

Probably time for a FOIA request.

The lack of information in the TX public hunt drawing drives me absolutely crazy. The cubed system is a de facto preference point system. Let’s be honest. The only reason I even still throw $10 at the sheep draw is that it’s only $10. Sure wish they’d offer more than two sheep tags to the public (one raffle, one state draw). New Mexico and Colorado have found a way to offer private land sheep opportunities in the public draw. I’d love to see TX do more for the public hunting crowd. I won’t hold my breath, though.

The FOIA request would yield some eye-opening stats, I’m guessing. Whoever advocated for a de facto preference point system in a drawing for one sheep tag with 6,000 applicants needs to be dragged out into the street and beaten with ram horns.

 

[bts09]

Well, I made the FOIA request this morning. My suspicion is they will tell me they can't produce the information because it's somehow "confidential by law." But we'll see.

 

[Bluffgruff]

I did the same (FOIA request) for Maine moose a few months ago. I won't be applying for Maine moose in the future. Drawing the sheep tag is really lottery odds. I would like to hunt some of the exotics in my lifetime, and I hope that's a reasonable goal.

 

[bts09]

So, um, they actually gave me the data. I don't have all of it yet, but I thought I would post the one that jumped out to me. The guided bighorn sheep package (the ONLY drawn bighorn hunt in Texas/the other one is an auction). So: last year, for that hunt, there were:

62 people with 16 points
57 people with 15 points
70 people with 14 points
71 people with 13 points
78 people with 12 points
92 people with 11 points
97 people with 10 points
112 people with 9 points
256 people with 8 points
304 people with 7 points
296 people with 6 points
369 people with 5 points
541 people with 4 points
597 people with 3 points
900 people with 2 points
1754 people with 1 points

And if I'm reading right, this is just APPLICANTS, not the actual outstanding pool of points.

The points are cubed for everyone and that represents your "bonus" entries. So, I think the way the numbers shake out is that, if you were applying for the first time, you had roughly a 1:1,500,000 chance of drawing. The highest point holder in the draw had 4097 entries (16x16x16+1) to your one entry.

But even a max point holder had, well, not a great chance, but better than many state draws--about 1:366.

Anyway, I'll find a way to post more data on here when I can. But it's...well, not great for a low point holder.

 

[rmyoung1]

So, um, they actually gave me the data. I don't have all of it yet, but I thought I would post the one that jumped out to me. The guided bighorn sheep package (the ONLY drawn bighorn hunt in Texas/the other one is an auction). So: last year, for that hunt, there were:

62 people with 16 points
57 people with 15 points
70 people with 14 points
71 people with 13 points
78 people with 12 points
92 people with 11 points
97 people with 10 points
112 people with 9 points
256 people with 8 points
304 people with 7 points
296 people with 6 points
369 people with 5 points
541 people with 4 points
597 people with 3 points
900 people with 2 points
1754 people with 1 points

And if I'm reading right, this is just APPLICANTS, not the actual outstanding pool of points.

The points are cubed for everyone and that represents your "bonus" entries. So, I think the way the numbers shake out is that, if you were applying for the first time, you had roughly a 1:1,500,000 chance of drawing. The highest point holder in the draw had 4097 entries (16x16x16+1) to your one entry.

But even a max point holder had, well, not a great chance, but better than many state draws--about 1:366.

Anyway, I'll find a way to post more data on here when I can. But it's...well, not great for a low point holder.

Hey @bts09 where are the 0-point applicants? Any idea what’s going on there?

Edit: Never mind. Found it.

 

[jabber]

So, um, they actually gave me the data. I don't have all of it yet, but I thought I would post the one that jumped out to me. The guided bighorn sheep package (the ONLY drawn bighorn hunt in Texas/the other one is an auction). So: last year, for that hunt, there were:

62 people with 16 points
57 people with 15 points
70 people with 14 points
71 people with 13 points
78 people with 12 points
92 people with 11 points
97 people with 10 points
112 people with 9 points
256 people with 8 points
304 people with 7 points
296 people with 6 points
369 people with 5 points
541 people with 4 points
597 people with 3 points
900 people with 2 points
1754 people with 1 points

And if I'm reading right, this is just APPLICANTS, not the actual outstanding pool of points.

The points are cubed for everyone and that represents your "bonus" entries. So, I think the way the numbers shake out is that, if you were applying for the first time, you had roughly a 1:1,500,000 chance of drawing. The highest point holder in the draw had 4097 entries (16x16x16+1) to your one entry.

But even a max point holder had, well, not a great chance, but better than many state draws--about 1:366.

Anyway, I'll find a way to post more data on here when I can. But it's...well, not great for a low point holder.

Looks like I am one point behind Max point holders. Should draw any decade now.

 

[Westxhunter]

It's still hard to draw, i put in for 25 tags. So far I got one. This is year 3. It's either this, or pay 5k for a ranch hunt.

 

[ImBillT]

Sheep odds in some states are better than deer odds in TX.